Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Machias, ME
December 9, 2024 6:23 AM EST (11:23 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:59 AM Sunset 3:55 PM Moonrise 1:21 PM Moonset 12:48 AM |
ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 228 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2024
.small craft advisory in effect until 6 am est early this morning - .
Today - N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt late this morning and afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Wave detail: sw 5 ft at 9 seconds and nw 2 ft at 4 seconds.
Tonight - NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 4 seconds and S 3 ft at 9 seconds. Snow. A chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Tue - E winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Wave detail: E 4 ft at 5 seconds and S 2 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of rain and freezing rain in the morning.
Tue night - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight. Wave detail: se 4 ft at 7 seconds, becoming se 3 ft at 7 seconds. Patchy fog. A chance of rain after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed - SE winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, becoming S 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 6 to 8 ft in the afternoon. Wave detail: S 5 ft at 7 seconds, becoming S 8 ft at 7 seconds and ne 1 foot at 5 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night - S winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft, building to 13 to 18 ft after midnight. Wave detail: S 13 ft at 9 seconds, becoming S 18 ft at 10 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less after midnight.
Thu - SW winds 25 to 35 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 12 to 17 ft, subsiding to 10 to 14 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Thu night - W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
Fri - W winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
ANZ005 228 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - High pres will build over the waters today. A weak occlusion will approach tonight and cross the waters Mon into Tue. Intensifying low pres will approach Wed - .track W of the waters Wed night - .and continue into eastern canada on Thu. High pres will return on Fri.
NEW! Add second zone forecast
| Addison Click for Map Mon -- 04:55 AM EST 11.89 feet High Tide Mon -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise Mon -- 11:08 AM EST 1.01 feet Low Tide Mon -- 12:21 PM EST Moonrise Mon -- 03:50 PM EST Sunset Mon -- 05:16 PM EST 11.90 feet High Tide Mon -- 11:35 PM EST 0.27 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Addison, Pleasant River, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.5 |
| 1 am |
| 3.8 |
| 2 am |
| 6.7 |
| 3 am |
| 9.5 |
| 4 am |
| 11.3 |
| 5 am |
| 11.9 |
| 6 am |
| 11.2 |
| 7 am |
| 9.4 |
| 8 am |
| 6.7 |
| 9 am |
| 4 |
| 10 am |
| 1.9 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 5.8 |
| 3 pm |
| 8.6 |
| 4 pm |
| 10.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 11.9 |
| 6 pm |
| 11.6 |
| 7 pm |
| 10.1 |
| 8 pm |
| 7.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 4.6 |
| 10 pm |
| 2 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.5 |
| Milbridge Click for Map Mon -- 04:35 AM EST 11.34 feet High Tide Mon -- 06:56 AM EST Sunrise Mon -- 10:59 AM EST 0.96 feet Low Tide Mon -- 12:22 PM EST Moonrise Mon -- 03:51 PM EST Sunset Mon -- 04:56 PM EST 11.35 feet High Tide Mon -- 11:26 PM EST 0.25 feet Low Tide Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION |
Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 1.8 |
| 1 am |
| 4.2 |
| 2 am |
| 7.1 |
| 3 am |
| 9.7 |
| 4 am |
| 11.1 |
| 5 am |
| 11.2 |
| 6 am |
| 10.3 |
| 7 am |
| 8.3 |
| 8 am |
| 5.8 |
| 9 am |
| 3.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.6 |
| 11 am |
| 1 |
| 12 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 1 pm |
| 3.5 |
| 2 pm |
| 6.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 8.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 10.8 |
| 5 pm |
| 11.4 |
| 6 pm |
| 10.7 |
| 7 pm |
| 9 |
| 8 pm |
| 6.6 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 10 pm |
| 1.6 |
| 11 pm |
| 0.4 |
FXUS61 KCAR 090825 AFDCAR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 325 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will crest over the region today. An occluded front will move into the area tonight then lift to our north Tuesday into Tuesday night. Intensifying low pressure will approach on Wednesday
track to our west Wednesday night
and continue north into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High pressure will follow on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure cresting over the area today will bring a dry and tranquil day. Some patchy stratus clouds will be around early this morning giving way to a partly to mostly sunny sky north and a partly sunny sky south. A weak occluded front will approach tonight and spread light snow across the area from southwest to northeast late tonight. A bit of sleet, freezing rain and rain may mix in along the coast. Snow amounts from this system are expected to be very light amounting to a dusting up to a half inch across the region. Most of the snow will likely be across southwestern parts of our region. The snow will become lighter and more intermittent up to the north as the occlusion pushes into high pressure to our northeast.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The weakening occlusion stalls over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as CAD slowly erodes. A strong frontal inversion will set up as temperatures warm aloft. Thick low clouds will blanket the area all day. By Tuesday morning, most moisture will be under H7 and well below the -10C threshold. Therefore, light freezing rain/drizzle are concerns much of Tuesday into Tuesday night. For Tuesday morning, these concerns are for Downeast and the Bangor area. Freezing precip will inch northward throughout the day, but may still be a problem just north of Bangor through the day.
Highs will be some 5 to 8 degrees warmer than Monday, but areas north of Bangor and Downeast will remain below freezing all day. Thick low level cloud under the inversion will ensure little decrease in temperatures Tuesday night and some fog may start to develop towards the coast and in upslope terrain such as Piscataquis County.
A low pressure system will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as a powerful upper trough digs into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. This feature and a strengthening subtropical high will draw deep moisture northward Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The surface low is expected to track well west of the area, putting the forecast area in a strong push of warm air. In general, the trend in the past few forecast cycles has been pushing the surface low and max precip a bit further west than models indicated a few days ago.
As steadier precip commences late Tuesday night, there may be enough cold air remaining at the surface to generate freezing rain, mostly well inland...mostly towards the North Woods.
Downeast and the Bangor area should be safely above the freezing mark by late Tuesday afternoon. By the end of Tuesday night, any freezing rain/drizzle should have exited the area due to strong warming overnight and erosion of CAD. At this point, it is hard to envision more than a couple hundredths on an inch of ice accumulation for Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Rain
heavy at times
will be the story for Wednesday. We maintain categorical PoPs with rain in this timeframe for the 7th straight forecast cycle as confidence continues to increase in this event. The rainfall for Wednesday is warm frontal and will not be as heavy as the rainfall on Wednesday night.
Temperatures will surge from the 30s early Wednesday to the 50s by Wednesday evening. The warm air moving over the snow cover will likely generate advection fog regardless of the increasing winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The biggest news for an eventful Wednesday night is that confidence increases in a more westward track for the low and heaviest rainfall. That means a big less precipitation, but a higher confidence in damaging winds across the area.
Moisture transport into the area continues to look anomalous and on a par with storms in Dec 2023. A powerful low level jet will draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday into Wednesday night. PWs will surge towards 1.3 to 1.5 inches by Wednesday night and could easily rank among the higher values ever recorded in December. The moisture has maintains the attention of WPC and they have continued to place the entire forecast area in the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.
While the area has been in a drought, the frozen ground will produce quick runoff and threaten to break up existing river ice. With QPF measured in inches, hydro concerns cannot be ignored Wednesday night into Thursday. Snowmelt will be added to the QPF as heavy rain and dew points in the 50s will efficiently melt snow on Wednesday night.
At this point, the best chance for more than 2 to 3 inches of rainfall appears to be in Piscataquis County and northern Piscataquis County due to the westward shift of the low. This is where some ensemble guidance shows some chance of the Piscataquis County rising towards minor flood levels. Given forecast river rises over 2 feet, ice break up and jamming will be a concern for areas where river ice has developed.
In addition to putting a beating on the the nascent snow cover in the area. This storm offers a variety of hazards in addition to heavy rain. These include high winds for Downeast and potential for coastal flooding issues.
In terms of winds, the westward shift in the latest guidance has increased the probability of impactful winds for the entire forecast area. As usual, the Downeast coast is most threatened by the current prognosis as an 850mb low level jet with a magnitude near 100 kts traverses the coast Wednesday night. Such a magnitude is usually associated with gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range and widespread power outages. Local rules of thumb currently suggest wind warnings will be needed on the coast and the Bangor area as a minimum. Gusts to 50 or 60 mph could extend as far north as Aroostook County. The current NBM guidance still did not convey the wind message very well and went with a blend of major operational models...and that is still less than what is possible.
Astronomical tides are not particularly high...especially Wednesday evening...and that is good news after all of the events that did pair high astro tides and max storm surge last winter. The high tide after 7 am Thursday morning could be the most impactful if the front slows down. At this time, the biggest storm surge is slotted between high tides on Wednesday night and winds shift to a more favorable southwest direction by 7 am Thursday. Wave runup could still be an issue for locations such as the renewed Seawall Rd on MDI as seas may reach 15 to 20 ft.
There will be strong cold air advection behind the system.
Moisture will freeze up Thursday night, but does not look like a flash freeze at this point. Expect gusty winds and isolated snow showers Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will drop below normal by Friday and Saturday.
The cold upper trough moves out of the area and the flow becomes more zonal later next weekend. Chances for precip increase Sunday into Sunday night, but there is little consensus in guidance on the development of a low...and P-types. As it looks now, cold air for frozen P-types will be marginal. There is consensus in a warming trend early next week.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions are expected this morning with low stratus in some areas. Conditions should improve to VFR by midday and remain VFR this evening. Conditions will then lower to MVFR and possibly IFR From southwest to northeast late tonight as the occlusion pushes into the area. Winds very light N today then E tonight.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday...IFR due to cigs and snow/freezing drizzle. Chance of freezing ra late Monday night through Tuesday. Light winds.
Tuesday night...IFR trending to LIFR or VLIFR likely with a good chance of freezing drizzle for all sites north of BGR and BHB. Fog is expected to develop.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR due to cigs and vis. Heavy rain possible. Dangerous LLWS increasingly likely as day progresses. Winds up to 85 kt possible at FL020 Wednesday night. South winds 25 to 50 kt by Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...Improving to mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs and tempo IFR in snow showers north of GNR and HUL. SW winds 15 to 25 kt.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will drop below SCA this morning then remain below SCA today and tonight. Seas will be around 4 ft across the offshore waters and 2 to 3 ft over the intracoastal waters.
SHORT TERM: A brief SCA may be needed Tuesday morning for winds and seas around 5 ft. Winds pick up rapidly Wednesday into Wednesday night. Storm conditions are now expected later Wednesday into Wednesday night. These will be southerly winds and seas are forecast to build towards 15 to 20 feet. After a cold frontal passage early Thursday morning, winds turn westerly with speeds slowly diminishing Thursday into Friday. The storm force winds will decrease to gale strength Thursday and gale force winds end by Thursday evening.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 325 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2024
SYNOPSIS
High pressure will crest over the region today. An occluded front will move into the area tonight then lift to our north Tuesday into Tuesday night. Intensifying low pressure will approach on Wednesday
track to our west Wednesday night
and continue north into Eastern Canada on Thursday. High pressure will follow on Friday.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High pressure cresting over the area today will bring a dry and tranquil day. Some patchy stratus clouds will be around early this morning giving way to a partly to mostly sunny sky north and a partly sunny sky south. A weak occluded front will approach tonight and spread light snow across the area from southwest to northeast late tonight. A bit of sleet, freezing rain and rain may mix in along the coast. Snow amounts from this system are expected to be very light amounting to a dusting up to a half inch across the region. Most of the snow will likely be across southwestern parts of our region. The snow will become lighter and more intermittent up to the north as the occlusion pushes into high pressure to our northeast.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
The weakening occlusion stalls over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night as CAD slowly erodes. A strong frontal inversion will set up as temperatures warm aloft. Thick low clouds will blanket the area all day. By Tuesday morning, most moisture will be under H7 and well below the -10C threshold. Therefore, light freezing rain/drizzle are concerns much of Tuesday into Tuesday night. For Tuesday morning, these concerns are for Downeast and the Bangor area. Freezing precip will inch northward throughout the day, but may still be a problem just north of Bangor through the day.
Highs will be some 5 to 8 degrees warmer than Monday, but areas north of Bangor and Downeast will remain below freezing all day. Thick low level cloud under the inversion will ensure little decrease in temperatures Tuesday night and some fog may start to develop towards the coast and in upslope terrain such as Piscataquis County.
A low pressure system will develop in the lower Mississippi Valley on Tuesday as a powerful upper trough digs into Texas and the Gulf of Mexico. This feature and a strengthening subtropical high will draw deep moisture northward Tuesday night into Wednesday night. The surface low is expected to track well west of the area, putting the forecast area in a strong push of warm air. In general, the trend in the past few forecast cycles has been pushing the surface low and max precip a bit further west than models indicated a few days ago.
As steadier precip commences late Tuesday night, there may be enough cold air remaining at the surface to generate freezing rain, mostly well inland...mostly towards the North Woods.
Downeast and the Bangor area should be safely above the freezing mark by late Tuesday afternoon. By the end of Tuesday night, any freezing rain/drizzle should have exited the area due to strong warming overnight and erosion of CAD. At this point, it is hard to envision more than a couple hundredths on an inch of ice accumulation for Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Rain
heavy at times
will be the story for Wednesday. We maintain categorical PoPs with rain in this timeframe for the 7th straight forecast cycle as confidence continues to increase in this event. The rainfall for Wednesday is warm frontal and will not be as heavy as the rainfall on Wednesday night.
Temperatures will surge from the 30s early Wednesday to the 50s by Wednesday evening. The warm air moving over the snow cover will likely generate advection fog regardless of the increasing winds.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
The biggest news for an eventful Wednesday night is that confidence increases in a more westward track for the low and heaviest rainfall. That means a big less precipitation, but a higher confidence in damaging winds across the area.
Moisture transport into the area continues to look anomalous and on a par with storms in Dec 2023. A powerful low level jet will draw deep moisture northward from the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday into Wednesday night. PWs will surge towards 1.3 to 1.5 inches by Wednesday night and could easily rank among the higher values ever recorded in December. The moisture has maintains the attention of WPC and they have continued to place the entire forecast area in the Slight Risk for excessive rainfall.
While the area has been in a drought, the frozen ground will produce quick runoff and threaten to break up existing river ice. With QPF measured in inches, hydro concerns cannot be ignored Wednesday night into Thursday. Snowmelt will be added to the QPF as heavy rain and dew points in the 50s will efficiently melt snow on Wednesday night.
At this point, the best chance for more than 2 to 3 inches of rainfall appears to be in Piscataquis County and northern Piscataquis County due to the westward shift of the low. This is where some ensemble guidance shows some chance of the Piscataquis County rising towards minor flood levels. Given forecast river rises over 2 feet, ice break up and jamming will be a concern for areas where river ice has developed.
In addition to putting a beating on the the nascent snow cover in the area. This storm offers a variety of hazards in addition to heavy rain. These include high winds for Downeast and potential for coastal flooding issues.
In terms of winds, the westward shift in the latest guidance has increased the probability of impactful winds for the entire forecast area. As usual, the Downeast coast is most threatened by the current prognosis as an 850mb low level jet with a magnitude near 100 kts traverses the coast Wednesday night. Such a magnitude is usually associated with gusts in the 60 to 70 mph range and widespread power outages. Local rules of thumb currently suggest wind warnings will be needed on the coast and the Bangor area as a minimum. Gusts to 50 or 60 mph could extend as far north as Aroostook County. The current NBM guidance still did not convey the wind message very well and went with a blend of major operational models...and that is still less than what is possible.
Astronomical tides are not particularly high...especially Wednesday evening...and that is good news after all of the events that did pair high astro tides and max storm surge last winter. The high tide after 7 am Thursday morning could be the most impactful if the front slows down. At this time, the biggest storm surge is slotted between high tides on Wednesday night and winds shift to a more favorable southwest direction by 7 am Thursday. Wave runup could still be an issue for locations such as the renewed Seawall Rd on MDI as seas may reach 15 to 20 ft.
There will be strong cold air advection behind the system.
Moisture will freeze up Thursday night, but does not look like a flash freeze at this point. Expect gusty winds and isolated snow showers Thursday into Friday. Temperatures will drop below normal by Friday and Saturday.
The cold upper trough moves out of the area and the flow becomes more zonal later next weekend. Chances for precip increase Sunday into Sunday night, but there is little consensus in guidance on the development of a low...and P-types. As it looks now, cold air for frozen P-types will be marginal. There is consensus in a warming trend early next week.
AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
NEAR TERM: MVFR to VFR conditions are expected this morning with low stratus in some areas. Conditions should improve to VFR by midday and remain VFR this evening. Conditions will then lower to MVFR and possibly IFR From southwest to northeast late tonight as the occlusion pushes into the area. Winds very light N today then E tonight.
SHORT TERM: Tuesday...IFR due to cigs and snow/freezing drizzle. Chance of freezing ra late Monday night through Tuesday. Light winds.
Tuesday night...IFR trending to LIFR or VLIFR likely with a good chance of freezing drizzle for all sites north of BGR and BHB. Fog is expected to develop.
Wednesday and Wednesday night...IFR to LIFR due to cigs and vis. Heavy rain possible. Dangerous LLWS increasingly likely as day progresses. Winds up to 85 kt possible at FL020 Wednesday night. South winds 25 to 50 kt by Wednesday night.
Thursday and Friday...Improving to mostly VFR with some MVFR cigs and tempo IFR in snow showers north of GNR and HUL. SW winds 15 to 25 kt.
MARINE
NEAR TERM: Winds will drop below SCA this morning then remain below SCA today and tonight. Seas will be around 4 ft across the offshore waters and 2 to 3 ft over the intracoastal waters.
SHORT TERM: A brief SCA may be needed Tuesday morning for winds and seas around 5 ft. Winds pick up rapidly Wednesday into Wednesday night. Storm conditions are now expected later Wednesday into Wednesday night. These will be southerly winds and seas are forecast to build towards 15 to 20 feet. After a cold frontal passage early Thursday morning, winds turn westerly with speeds slowly diminishing Thursday into Friday. The storm force winds will decrease to gale strength Thursday and gale force winds end by Thursday evening.
CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for ANZ050-051.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME | 29 mi | 53 min | NW 12G | 28°F | 42°F | 30.04 | ||
| CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) | 29 mi | 53 min | NNW 1.9G | 25°F | 44°F | 30.04 | ||
| 44027 | 33 mi | 43 min | NNW 16G | 47°F | 30.03 | |||
| 44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf | 41 mi | 139 min | N 18G | 34°F | 5 ft | 29.97 | ||
| PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME | 45 mi | 53 min | WNW 7G | 27°F | 46°F | 29.99 | ||
| MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME | 49 mi | 23 min | NNW 13G | 31°F | 30.06 | 24°F |
Wind History for Bar Harbor, ME
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Air | DewPt | RH | inHg |
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KBHB
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KBHB
Wind History Graph: BHB
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of north east
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