Sunrise 5:39 AM   Sunset 7:28 PM Moonrise 4:13 PM   Moonset 4:27 AM

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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 651 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt this afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Rain. Patchy fog late this morning and afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm, decreasing to 1 nm or less late this morning and afternoon. Tonight - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: sw 3 ft at 5 seconds and se 1 ft at 13 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening with vsby 1 nm or less. Sun - W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 7 seconds and W 2 ft at 4 seconds. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 6 seconds and se 1 ft at 12 seconds. Mon - W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 7 seconds. Mon night - W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: W 3 ft at 5 seconds and S 1 ft at 7 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Tue night - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed - S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the afternoon. Wed night - S winds around 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of rain.

ANZ005 651 Am Edt Sat Apr 20 2024
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm - An occluded front crosses the region today, then exits across the maritimes Sun. A strong cold front crosses the waters early Mon. High pres then builds across the region later Mon into Tue. Low pres will approach Wed.

FXUS61 KCAR 201055 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 655 AM EDT Sat Apr 20 2024

SYNOPSIS
An occluded front crosses the region Saturday, then exits across the Maritimes Sunday. A strong cold front crosses the region Sunday night into Monday. High pressure then builds across the region later Monday into Tuesday. Low pressure approaches Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
650 am update...Rainfall has materialized as expected with moderate rain upstream in southern Maine. The moderate rain will move into the Bangor area and Downeast and continue into early afternoon before diminishing. Still looking for the second round of showers later in the evening for the Bangor area and Downeast.

Previous discussion...
The occluded front has moved into the area this morning and has stalled. An upper level shortwave swinging out of the Great Lakes region towards Maine is creating a very dynamic situation ahead of the frontal boundary this morning. H7 temp gradients are tightening with strong mid level UVVs developing. The enhanced lift is just now starting to produce an expanding area of precipitation in southern New England that will advect northeastward along the stalled frontal boundary towards Downeast in the coming hours.

Moisture advection south of the boundary will push PWs towards an inch on the Downeast coast. Low level moisture advection will generate some fog towards the coast today with dew points surging into the low to mid 40s. Moderate rainfall will move across southern Penobscot County and across Hancock and Washington counties through the morning into the early afternoon. Overall rainfall totals will reach over a half inch in those areas today, but amounts will fall off dramatically north of the I-95 corridor. The North Woods and the Saint John Valley will receive little to no rain today and experience warmer high temps in the lower 50s versus mid to upper 40s Downeast.

The frontal boundary will also feature a particularly sharp dew point gradient such that afternoon dew points in the North Woods may be near 20F versus the mid 40s on the coast. The boundary will sag southward this afternoon as the steadier rain departs Downeast.

A vort max at the base of the upper level trough arrives this evening and promises to produce some instability along the front this evening. Mid-level lapse rates will exceed 7C/km. This instability will be mostly from the Bangor area and eastward across the Downeast region. Time of day will work against any thunderstorms, but some guidance is advertising a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE this evening. Will maintain chance PoPs for showers through the evening. Cannot rule out graupel given the low freezing levels.

Clearing is anticipated for tonight. Colder air will gradually advect southeastward behind the front tonight. Lows will drop into the 30s by Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
A strong cold front located over the Great Lakes will begin to approach the region on Sunday. Thought the front should not reach the area by Sunday, energy and moisture ahead of the system could produce convection across the north by the afternoon. Increasing W flow is expected to keep temps in the 40s for the North Woods, but elsewhere could see 50s. By Sunday night, the cold front is expected to move through the region, exiting over the waters late. Any light rain showers in the north should switch over to snow showers with the frontal passage. This arctic cold front shows in the 925-850mb model temps with a drastic temp gradient moving through after midnight. Expect W winds to become breezy late and temps in the north to decrease to the 20s. The south should see clearing skies and temps in the upper 30s.

By Monday, the cold front exiting over the waters and the approaching high pressure will tighten pressure gradients making for a breezy morning, especially in the north. This coupled with the cold temps will drop wind chills to the teens with a slight increase into the 20s by late morning. The high temp for the day should be in the mid to upper 30s in the north and 40s in the south. The winds should decrease by the afternoon with high pressure moving into. By Monday night, expect clear skies with decreasing winds and temps cooling to below freezing.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
High pressure on Tuesday should help return flow usher in a warm airmass into the area, bringing temps back into a more seasonable 50s with increasing clouds. The next system is expected to move into the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Extended guidance shows this system as a intensifying low pressure system moving across Canada and into the Great Lakes.
However, the Euro and Canadian show the system developing into an occlusion by Tuesday night with an intensifying triple point moving across New England by Wednesday. The GFS shows a strong low center rotating through the state by Wednesday and continuing through Thursday. Per the previous discussion, the predictability is not high with this sort of setup, and many things could happen. We will very likely get some precipitation some time late Tuesday night to Thursday, with progressively colder air and perhaps a changeover to accumulating snow toward Wednesday night or Thursday. Whether we change to accumulating snow depends on the position of the upper low and how long it hangs out over our area.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
NEAR TERM: Terminals north of HUL and GNR will likely remain VFR through the period. Further south, cigs will become IFR in rain today. LIFR is possible today at BHB. South winds 10 to 20 kt will become southwest later today.

SHORT TERM: Sunday...Mainly VFR, though brief MVFR in scattered showers from MLT and GNR north. W wind 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts.

Sunday Night...VFR until after 6z in the north, when a cold front moves in from the NW. This could bring brief MVFR/IFR to areas from PQI north. Winds will be SW 5-10 kts, shifting to the NW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30 kts late and in the north behind the cold front.

Monday...Generally VFR, except local MVFR early mainly N of HUL.
W/NW winds 10-20 kts with gusts 20-30 kts.

Monday Night...VFR with light winds.

Tuesday...VFR with S wind 10-15 kts.

Tuesday Night and Wednesday...Low confidence, but potential for MVFR/IFR late Tuesday night into Wednesday with rain. Generally S wind 10-20 kts.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Very moist air and moderate rainfall all day will produce fog today into this evening. The stability will keep winds generally at 10 to 15 kt from the south with just a few gusts reaching 20 kt. Seas will be around 3 to 4 feet. Winds will become westerly tonight around 10 kt.

SHORT TERM: Next chance of small craft comes Sunday night and Monday. Then a likelihood of small craft late Tuesday into Wednesday.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

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Addison
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Sat -- 03:47 AM EDT     1.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EDT     11.44 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:10 PM EDT     1.36 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:22 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:18 PM EDT     11.52 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Addison, Pleasant River, Maine, Tide feet

Milbridge
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Sat -- 03:38 AM EDT     1.61 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:27 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:38 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:35 AM EDT     10.91 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:01 PM EDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 07:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:58 PM EDT     10.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine, Tide feet

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