Tuesday, February18, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Machias, ME

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:29AMSunset 5:08PM Tuesday February 18, 2020 8:36 AM EST (13:36 UTC) Moonrise 4:12AMMoonset 1:14PM Illumination 27% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 625 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
.gale warning in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through this evening...
Today..E winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this morning, then increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt early this afternoon, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft this afternoon. Light freezing spray early this morning. A chance of snow early this afternoon. Rain and snow likely late with vsby 1 nm or less.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 7 to 10 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt, increasing to 25 to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 25 to 30 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 8 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate freezing spray.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Light freezing spray in the evening.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 3 ft after midnight.
ANZ005 625 Am Est Tue Feb 18 2020
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. High pressure will move E the area this morning. A low will approach from the sw this afternoon, then track along the downeast coast tonight. High pressure builds into the region through the end of the week and into the early part of the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Machias, ME
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location: 44.62, -67.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Caribou, ME
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FXUS61 KCAR 181151 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 651 AM EST Tue Feb 18 2020

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure will move east this morning. Low pressure from the southwest will approach this afternoon and track across Quebec tonight. High pressure and Arctic air builds into the region from late Wednesday through Thursday night and then begins to move east on Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. No sig chgs made from last update. Impressive low temps across Nrn ptns of the FA with relatively modest residence of arctic air. With clear skies lasting longer, low temps across the N did occur close to sunrise. Fcst hrly temps/dwpts were updated thru the morn to reflect colder early morn temps. Otherwise, we re- added patchy blsn to the fcst for later this aftn and eve for msly Nrn/Cntrl ptns of the FA particularly higher trrn where wind/wind gusts will be higher.

Prev Disc: No chgs to the current wntr wx hdlns for later tdy into tngt with models consistent with the upcoming sn event. Prior to sn arrival, the arctic invsn ovr our area erly this morn will undergo dissipation mid to late morn as hi/mid cld cvr arrives from the W. Sn onset, which looks to be about 3 hrs later than it appeared ystdy attm will begin by mid aftn Wrn areas and late aftn across the E. Snow will be mdt attms between 5 and 9 pm, but alg the coast and interior downeast areas, sn will mix with sleet and rain, even chg to all rn briefly alg the immediate Downeast coast. This mix and/or rn reduces sn totals ovr these areas. Otherwise, greatest sn totals look to be ovr the Cntrl ME highlands areas where some lctns could get upwards to 6 inches prior to snfl winding down by late tngt with the rest of the adv area receiving between 3 to 5 inches.

Gusty Srly Winds with a llvl jet late this aftn and erly eve could result in patchy blsn msly on E-W roadways N of where sn mixes with rn and with gusts reaching arnd 40 mph over the high trrn of Downeast ME. Otherwise, much warmer hi temps tdy will be at erly eve, with temps rising a little more during the ovrngt before falling very late tngt behind a first cold/occluded front.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Highlights in the short range include the continued chance for blowing snow across the north and into the Central Highlands Wednesday, as well as possible snow squalls during Wed afternoon.

Snow from previous system will be tapering off in the early morning hours Wednesday as dry air infiltrates across northern New England. Simulated WV shows this plume well, with a brief lull in wind speeds before shifting south to west and again increasing through noontime. Blowing and drifting snow remains a threat, especially w/ new dry snow the night prior. Steep low lvl lapse rates around 9c/km will help mix stiff WNW winds toward the surface across much of the forecast area. Best mixing occurs during the early afternoon as indicated by both NAM and GFS soundings up to 2km. Kept much of previous forecast intact, but did increase by a knot or two with gusts up to 35 mph possible. This was based on the NBM continuing to support these wind gusts, as well as some hires guidance picking up on higher winds . ARW is the extreme, showing pockets of 45 mph gusts.

Wednesday afternoon will also feature the chance of some snow squalls. For time being, best signal among the CMC, NMM, and SREF is across the North Woods, St. John Valley, and central Aroostook. However, cannot rule out lighter isolated snow showers developing across central areas throughout the afternoon. Kept PoPs at low chance given the drier surface environment in NW flow. As pointed out by swing shift, the St. Lawrence River is quite free of ice. This can be observed via vis satellite imagery and Canadian Coast Guard ice charts, so the showers could tap into this open moisture source and form as streamers across the north. Snow squall parameter highlights a large area of possible impact, but may be keying high on the low level instability and environment winds, while again, moisture is lackluster in the equation.

Amid the cool and dry NW flow, another cold night with sub zero temps is expected as skies clear Wed night. The cold air mass lingers through the day Thursday with high temperatures struggling to exit the single digits above zero across the north and teens Downeast. This sets up Thursday night to have lower lows with some negative teen values creeping towards interior Downeast.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Low pressure passing over Hudson Bay will cut off the bitter air flow from the west Friday. Flow becomes SW as a warming trend sets up through late week and the weekend. Conditions are expected to remain dry for most of the long term amid widespread high temps in the 30s and some 40s in the Bangor Region and Downeast.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. NEAR TERM: Tdy . VFR all sites, then becmg IFR all TAF sites in sn mid to late aftn, contg into the eve. Downeast sites mixing with or chgng to sleet and rain by erly eve.

Tngt . IFR clgs/vsbys all TAF sites this eve will improve SW to NE as precip ends and moves E of the area to MVFR by late tngt and VFR by daybreak Wed.

SHORT TERM: Wednesday . MVFR cigs possible in snow showers with blowing snow also possible at northern terminals. Vis may be reduced to IFR in stronger SHSN. VFR Downeast. West winds 10-15 kts gusting to 20-30 kts during the afternoon.

Wednesday night to Thursday . VFR. Modestly breezy west wind gusting up to 15-20 kts during the day.

Thursday night to Friday night . Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals Friday night. Light to modestly breezy SW wind.

Saturday . VFR with a chance of MVFR at northern terminals early. Modestly breezy west winds.

MARINE. NEAR TERM: Will cont with gale wrng ovr the outer waters and a strong SCA for the inner bay/harbor waters as S winds increase durg the day, reaching a max at erly eve. Winds and wvs will warrant an SCA for our outer MZ waters late tngt after the gale wrng xprs. Kept close to blended wv model guidance for fcst wv hts.

SHORT TERM: Strong SCA conditions will likely be ongoing as winds increase to around 30 kt during the day Wednesday and waves remain elevated 5 to 8 ft. These conditions will taper Wed night, falling below SCA criteria by Thursday afternoon. Light to moderate freezing spray will be possible through Thursday as a cold airmass remains in the region.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. ME . Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for MEZ002-005-006-011-032. Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for MEZ001-003-004-010-015-031. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Wednesday for ANZ052. Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to midnight EST tonight for ANZ050-051.



Near Term . VJN Short Term . Cornwell Long Term . Cornwell Aviation . VJN/Cornwell Marine . VJN/Cornwell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ATGM1 - 8413320 - Bar Harbor, ME 29 mi49 min ESE 5.1 G 8 16°F 33°F1035.6 hPa
CFWM1 - Cutler Farris Wharf, ME (8411060) 29 mi49 min NE 2.9 G 5.1 13°F 38°F1034.7 hPa
44027 33 mi47 min ENE 9.7 G 16 23°F 40°F1034.5 hPa (+0.3)12°F
44034 - Buoy I0103 - Eastern Maine Shelf 41 mi93 min 12 G 14 25°F
PSBM1 - 8410140 - Eastport, ME 45 mi55 min NNE 6 G 7 16°F 38°F1035.7 hPa
MDRM1 - Mt Desert Rock, ME 49 mi37 min ENE 12 G 14 1034.1 hPa (-0.0)

Wind History for Cutler Farris Wharf, ME
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bar Harbor, Hancock County-Bar Harbor Airport, ME35 mi2.7 hrsN 310.00 miFair10°F3°F73%1035.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBHB

Wind History from BHB (wind in knots)
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2 days ago--CalmCalmW6SW5SW6SW6S8S10SW11SW6CalmSW6SW9SW6SW6SW12SW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Addison, Pleasant River, Maine
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Addison
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:31 AM EST     1.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:50 AM EST     12.40 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:13 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:25 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:38 PM EST     10.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.32.65.17.910.41212.411.59.46.53.71.50.30.41.94.47.19.310.610.79.67.55

Tide / Current Tables for Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine
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Milbridge
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:22 AM EST     1.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:12 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:30 AM EST     11.83 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:14 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 01:16 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:18 PM EST     10.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.42.95.48.210.411.711.710.58.35.531.10.20.62.34.87.49.310.310.18.76.54.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Caribou, ME (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Caribou, ME
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.