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ANZ050 Coastal Waters From Eastport, Me To Schoodic Point, Me Out 25 Nm- 307 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.storm warning in effect from late tonight through Monday evening...
Today..S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Patchy fog. Patchy drizzle this morning. A slight chance of rain early this afternoon, then a chance of rain late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tonight..S winds 25 to 35 kt with gusts up to 45 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft, building to 8 to 11 ft after midnight. Rain likely in the evening, then rain after midnight. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon..S winds 35 to 45 kt with gusts up to 60 kt. Seas 13 to 18 ft, building to 15 to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..W winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 45 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 11 to 16 ft, subsiding to 9 to 14 ft after midnight.
Tue..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 to 10 ft, subsiding to 5 to 8 ft in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Wed..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon, then becoming nw 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
Thu..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 ft, subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.

ANZ005 307 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis for eastport me to stonington me out 25 nm.. Intensifying low pressure tracks across maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. High pressure builds south of the waters Thursday.

FXUS61 KCAR 100531 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1231 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS
A warm front crosses the region overnight into Sunday.
Intensifying low pressure tracks across Maine Monday and will draw a cold front across the region Monday evening. High pressure builds Monday night into Tuesday. A cold front moves through Wednesday. High pressure builds to the south of the region Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
1230 am update...
Quick update to adjust temps and therefore locations of drizzle/freezing drizzle. Fcst temps running just a touch too warm so dropped them slightly in some areas. Overall a drizzly and foggy night acrs the area. As temps warm above frzg, expect that fog should get more dense with melting snowpack.

Previous discussion: A warm front will slowly lift through the area tonight into early Sunday. While there is strong warm advection and decent thermal gradients, there is little lift and no precip outside of drizzle or freezing drizzle. Not expecting measurable precipitation, so will continue to handle with Special Weather Statements. Nonetheless, the freezing drizzle has caused traffic troubles this afternoon and can be expected to continue delivering locally treacherous conditions tonight. The warm advection will cause temperatures to slowly rise overnight.
Along with rising temperatures from south to north, the freezing drizzle will progress northward and exit the entire forecast area by daybreak. The drizzle is very low level and will not show up on radar.

The frontal inversion will persist tonight through Sunday. The strong warm temperature and moisture advection will produce increasing coverage of fog tonight into Sunday. It is possible that a Dense Fog Advisory will become a consideration as dew points well into the 40s surge northward over the cold, snow- covered ground. With south winds, upslope effect will accentuate fog and drizzle in Piscataquis and northern Penobscot counties.
Winds aloft will increase Sunday, but with the steep inversion, expect minimal mixing.

A weak cold sags southeast into the forecast area from the northwest on Sunday afternoon. The cold front will cause steadier rain to develop in the afternoon except Downeast where the fog and drizzle regime will linger.

With the warm advection, highs will creep into the mid 40s north and low to mid 50s towards Bangor and Downeast. These highs will not be achieved until late day.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Significant Storm to Impact Maine Sun Night into Monday...

Setup...A boundary will be in place across the St. John Valley southward to around the Moosehead Region. 12z operational runs have shifted this boundary slightly more east which complicates the forecast. If this trend continues we will need a shift in wind, rain and snow axes. Opted to take a blend of the NBM, 12z GFS and NAM shifting this boundary from Van Buren to Moosehead.
Extremely potent energy will be diving around the base of the trof over the Ohio Valley and will tilt the trof negatively quickly Sun night. At the same time strengthening jet stream will set up upper level divergence over the NYC area where surface cyclogenesis will rapidly take shape. At the same time strengthening low-level jet will develop and push north towards Maine increasing into Monday. Surface low pressure as it track towards Boston by Mon AM and Maine by Mon midday will be "bombing" out with extremely rapid deepening. This low will track through Maine during the and into New Brunswick by mid to late afternoon and into the Maritimes by early Tuesday AM.

Precip...Given deepening surface convergence along the front over Maine combined with the potent shortwave and low pressure expecting moderate to heavy rain to develop Sun night into Mon midday. Southerly winds will favor increased upslope along the Longfellow Mtns in the Central Highlands to Baxter region.
Widespread rainfall totals by Mon afternoon expected to be 2-2.5 inches with 1.5-2.0 inches along the immediate coast and 2.5-3.25 inches in the upslope areas of the Central Highlands.
Rain will be falling on the snowpack causing significant runoff into the area rivers, creeks and streams causing significant rises, see the hydrology section below. Across the North Woods west of the front the low pressure tracks on will have increased low-level cold air advection. This will result in a much colder sounding, based on the latest operational runs. This will result intially rain changing to wet snow late Sun night into Mon AM with light to moderate snow expected into Monday before tapering late day. This is a complex part of the forecast with models trending east with the boundary which could cause more snow east to the Route 11 corridor north of Patten. Rain will change briefly to snow across much of the northern zones late in the day Monday as temperatures crash to freezing. This will likely result in refreeze on untreated surfaces. At this point given the uncertainty will not hoist winter headlines for now.
Given the increasing confidence in heavy rainfall + snowmelt and rapid river responses opted to expand the Flood Watch to include everyone except the far North Woods and western St. John Valley.

Winds...Late Sun Night the 925mb low-level jet will increase 80-95kt over the Gulf of Maine waters and work into Downeast Maine. The majority of this low-level jet will be below the inversion and decent mixing suggests large chunk of these winds will make it to the coastal areas of the Downeast. Friction will cut this jet down as it penetrates inland over Maine but still expecting some winds to mix down. The caveat to this will be the exact track of the low pressure. With a slight shift today combined with uncertainty on the strongest winds have opted to keep High Wind Watches up for Southern Aroostook into interior Downeast including Bangor region. Confidence is high for southerly wind gusts reaching 60-70mph at the Downeast coast opted to upgrade to a High Wind Warning. Significant to widespread power outages from tree damage is likely in these areas. Inland for the watches will give it another model cycle before deciding if we upgrade to advisories or warnings. Winds after the shift in the wake of the storm Monday night will be gusty from the W-NW gusting up to 30-35mph all night.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Looking out into the long term ensembles have the NAO turning positive around +1SD and also the PNA turning positive +1SD as well. This within a positive ENSO pattern will keep much of the area with more progressive systems with less precipitation and temperatures generally around normal. A few isolated snow showers on Wednesday with a weak clipper-like boundary sliding through the area with a 500mb shortwave transitioning over the area. Thursday into Friday we have generally 500mb ridging moving overhead but significant timing differences between the global operational runs. Thursday AM lows might be the coldest with high pressure overhead and full decoupling. Opted to keep near the NBM blend for now but cannot rule out negative single digit lows across the northern 1/3rd of the CWA.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
NEAR TERM: VLIFR/LIFR at terminals overnight in drizzle and freezing drizzle across the north. Patchy locally dense fog at times this morning. Drizzle will be predominant across the north until early this afternoon with IFR rain at all Aroostook terminals.

Downeast terminals will see IFR cigs all day with rain not moving in until later this afternoon/early evening.

LLWS across northern terminals this morning and early this afternoon with Downeast terminals not seeing LLWS until this afternoon and continuing thru the overnight.

SHORT TERM: Sun Night...IFR/LIFR. Moderate to heavy rain. S-SE winds 10-20kt with gusts to 25kt at northern terms. S winds 15-25kt with gusts up to 35kt at southern terms. LLWS likely all sites.

Mon...IFR/LIFR. Moderate to heavy rain likely. S winds 25-35kt with gusts up to 55kt at BHB & BGR. Gusts up to 45kt at PQI and HUL. Gusts up to 40kt at CAR. NE winds at FVE 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt. LLWS likely all sites. Rain changes to snow at FVE, CAR & PQI after 20z before tapering to snow showers. All other sites are RA till after 18-20z before tapering to showers.

Tue...VFR. W winds 10-20kt with gusts up to 30kt at FVE, CAR, PQI and HUL. Gusts up to 25kt at BGR & BHB.

Wed...VFR/MVFR. W winds 10-15kt with gusts up to 20kt. Afternoon light SNSH possible at FVE, CAR & PQI.

Thu...VFR/MVFR. NW winds 10-15kt.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: South winds slowly increase through the period such that gusts to 30 kt will be frequent by Sunday evening. Since this is a slow ramp up to the Storm Warning, no separate advisories will be issued. Seas will slowly to the winds, reaching around 4 ft by late Sunday.

SHORT TERM: Storm Warning in effect from 1AM to 7PM Mon. Sun night S Gales will become storms with gusts up 50kt possible by sunrise Mon AM. Waves 8-11ft by daybreak with a period of 7-8sec. Expect winds to increase Mon AM with sustained 40-45kt with gusts up to 60kt. Long period (10-11sec) southerly swells increase to 10-15ft in the intra-coastal waterways and 18-21ft across the coastal waters out 25nm. Winds will shift W Mon eve and drop to Gales for a few hours before dropping to SCA conditions by midnight. Long period swells subside to 8-10ft during the overnight. Westerly wind gusts will be SCA conditions much of the day Tue into Wed with seas still 5-7ft into the evening. Thu-Fri winds/waves look to remain just below SCA conditions
Weather
Rain likely Sun Night into Mon Afternoon before tapering to showers and ending Mon Eve. Rain will be moderate to heavy and will reduce vsby.

HYDROLOGY
Melting snowpack and heavy rainfall to pose a hydrologic threat across a large portion of Eastern and Northern Maine. Ice is present on some of the rivers but will not be that big of a concern. There is frazil and pancake ice that has frozen in place on the St. John and Aroostook River basins along with other smaller creeks and streams across much of the CWA. Latest NOHRSC analysis shows generally 2-5 inches across the southern 1/2 of the CWA and 4-10 inches across the northern 1/2 of the CWA with highest totals in the North Woods and higher terrain of Baxter. In this snow we generally see 0.5 to 1.5 inches of SWE that is likely to melt with this upcoming event.

The combination of heaviest rainfall, SWE melting and the partially frozen grounds corresponds to a flood threat on small creeks and streams. The Piscataquis River which is prone to rapid rises and has a complex terrain in the basin is likely to experience minor flooding. The Northeast River Forecast Center is predicting the Piscataquis at Dover-Foxcroft to rise to Minor Flood Stage on Monday. Given the concern for smaller creeks, streams and some smaller rivers to see rapid rises from rain and snowmelt we have opted to expand the Flood Watch to include all of Downeast, Central Highlands and Eastern Aroostook county. In addition, large rivers will experience rises Monday into Tuesday AM before cresting which could send some locations into action stage. Not expecting flooding at this time, however highly isolated issues may occur as rivers approach bankfull.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide near 9AM Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 10-15 ft will be fairly likely to deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for MEZ002-004>006-010-011-015>017-029>032.
High Wind Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for MEZ006-011-015>017-032.
High Wind Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...Storm Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Monday for ANZ050>052.

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Addison
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Sun -- 02:26 AM EST     1.58 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:37 AM EST     12.26 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:59 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 03:05 PM EST     0.49 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:50 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 09:12 PM EST     10.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Addison, Pleasant River, Maine, Tide feet

Milbridge
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Sun -- 02:17 AM EST     1.51 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:17 AM EST     11.70 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:00 PM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:56 PM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 03:51 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 08:52 PM EST     10.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Milbridge, Narraguagus River, Maine, Tide feet

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