Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elberta, MI

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

...Widespread showers thru this evening with a few thunderstorms this morning...

Low pressure center has reached Eastern Iowa early this morning as it continues to lift NE toward the Western Great Lakes region.
Impressive line of strong/severe convection continues to fire along and ahead of the associated cold front...currently impacting much of the Lower Mississippi Valley
Closer to home
several areas of diminishing convection are lifting thru Wisconsin and Michigan in advance of the surface low center
Some embedded thunder remains
some of which has produced small hail along/near our Lake Michigan shoreline near Frankfort...Buckley and Empire.

Surface low center will lift thru Wisconsin this morning and Upper Michigan this afternoon...reaching SE Ontario this evening and the Ontario/Quebec border late tonight. Associated occluded front will sweep thru our CWA during the morning hours...shifting winds from SE to SW and pushing the instability axis and thus focus for thunderstorm development southeast of Michigan for the remainder of the day
In the meantime
waves of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue to develop ahead of and around this system...impacting our entire CWA this morning. Severe storms are not expected...but some small hail and some gusty winds are possible with any storms that develop. Potential for thunder will generally end by midday as any remaining limited instability dies.

POPs will diminish to chance across our southern CWA this afternoon as the dry slot arrives...but categorical pops/widespread rain showers will continue for Eastern Upper Michigan as the low center tracks thru the eastern half of the UP. Diminishing trend of POPs from south to north will continue thru tonight as the low and associated lift and moisture push NE away from our state. Some wet snow flakes may mix with the linger rain showers across the northern half of our CWA later this evening and overnight before all chances of precip come to a close very late tonight. No snow accumulation is expected.

High temps this afternoon will only warm into the 40s across Eastern Upper Michigan and into the mid 50s to lower 60s across Northern Lower Michigan. Low temps tonight will cool into the 30s across our entire CWA

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Apr 21 2025

Forecast Details:

By Tuesday morning, surface low pressure currently bringing the ongoing rain and thunder to the region will be well to our east in Quebec, with a small area of surface high pressure across northern illinois moving east into northern Ohio by the afternoon. Result will be drier conditions through the day Tuesday, but with breezy NW winds (some gusts to 30mph) through much of the day until the pressure gradient slackens. Temps hold in the 40s and 50s Tuesday, with peeks of sunshine throughout the day. Meanwhile, the next weather maker will be well underway to our west as an occluding area of low pressure over the Dakotas slowly moves north... with an associated warm front intruding into the southwest portion of the CWA Zonal flow, largely parallel with the frontal boundary, will allow for a convectively charged wave to approach Tuesday night into Wednesday. This batch of showers and thunder will largely be decaying as it approaches, and realistically, the areas with the most probability of seeing anything will generally be south / west of M-115, with perhaps some spinkles or a light shower elsewhere.

The bulk of this activity dissipates with loss of instability as it ducks south into central and southwest Michigan Wednesday morning.
Thus, the warm front passes with largely minimal fanfare through the day Wednesday, which should set the stage for a pronounced warmup to the area... with highs spiking well into the 50s north of the Bridge and 60s (perhaps touching 70 in spots) south. The associated cold front will slowly approach as the decaying surface low moves east across northern Ontario. The cold front will likely become stationary across central and eastern upper Thursday into Friday, which should yield shower (minimal thunder potential at this juncture) chances through the day Thursday and into Friday north of M-68. Some guidance is aggressive with the convective element, which could yield a relatively significant swath of rain, perhaps in the order of 1 to 3 inches of rain in this corridor... but as is the case with convection, this scenario is riddled with uncertainty this far out
Drier and sunnier south
so a bit of a temperature contrast anticipated across the region both Thursday and Friday...
largely 55-60 in the eastern Yoop, near 60 to 65 in the Straits, and then upper 60s to 75+ south... potentially as far north as M-32.
Definitely a tricky forecast scenario between M-68 and M-72... any wavering in the stationary frontal boundary placement will be the difference between cloudier / cooler / wetter conditions and abundant sunshine with sharply warmer temps, perhaps mimicking a summer preview.

Surface low pressure riding the front then accelerates northeastward into the southern Lakes by Friday evening, which will bring more widespread shower and thunder activity to the rest of the area Friday night into Saturday as the cold front is forced through the area. While the beginning of the weekend certainly could trend a little crummy (highs potentially in the 40s and 50s Saturday with rain), there is some guidance that is optimistic in rocketing the surface low out of the area earlier Saturday, which would add some drier time. Certainly updates to be had as this comes closer.
Regardless...high confidence that strong Canadian surface high pressure then fills the void with sunny skies to close out the weekend as temperatures return to near / slightly above normal Sunday (50 to 60+ highs)... so Saturday is a question mark for dryness but Sunday certainly looks dry.

Normal highs: 52-62, normal lows: 31-40

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1139 PM EDT Sun Apr 20 2025

Still expecting a prolonged period of IFR conditions as we head through this morning as low clouds, showers, and mist spread across the terminals. May have a few rumbles of thunder as well, but nothing significant. Gradual improvement expected from southwest to northeast as we head through later this afternoon and this evening. Gusty southeast winds become southwest and remain gusty later this afternoon and evening.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LHZ345>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LMZ323-341-342- 344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for LSZ321-322.