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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elberta, MI

June 25, 2024 9:49 AM CDT (14:49 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:07 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM
Moonrise 11:38 PM   Moonset 8:46 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202406240217;;553631 Fzus73 Kapx 240208 Mwsapx
marine weather statement national weather service gaylord mi 1008 pm edt Sun jun 23 2024
lmz345-346-364-366-240217- /o.exp.kapx.ma.w.0030.000000t0000z-240624t0200z/ 1008 pm edt Sun jun 23 2024

.the special marine warning expired at 1000 pm edt - .
the affected areas were - . Lake michigan from charlevoix to manistee mi 5nm offshore to mid lake - . Manistee to sleeping bear point mi - .
the strongest Thunderstorms have moved onshore. However, gusty winds are still likely between frankfort and manistee.
&&
lat - .lon 4442 8624 4472 8654 4488 8645 4494 8625 4488 8605 4484 8601 4474 8603 4467 8619 4458 8616 4448 8617 4445 8618 time - .mot - .loc 0207z 317deg 25kt 4463 8607

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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294 FXUS63 KAPX 251411 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1011 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong/severe line of storms expected this morning. Primary hazard will be damaging winds. Large hail and localized heavy rainfall also possible.

- Conditions begin to dry as surface high pressure builds this Wednesday through the first half of the long term. Chances of showers return this weekend.

UPDATE
Issued at 1008 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Last remnants of MCS that impacted northern Michigan early this morning about set to exit into northern Lake Huron and points east. Not expecting any redevelopment along passing cold front with a completely worked over atmosphere. Likely to see some clearing take place this afternoon. About normal highs today in the 70s to lower 80s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong jet/low-amplitude shortwave will continue to punch across the Upper Midwest and over the Great Lakes this morning/afternoon as more pronounced upper troughing digs into the region later tonight.
Parent cyclone associated with forcing aloft will work across James Bay into Quebec today as the attendant front swings across the Great Lakes. Relatively high surface pressure is expected to temporarily build in later tonight into Wednesday morning.

Forecast Details:

Strong/severe storms this morning -- Primary forecast concern over the next several hours will be a line of strong/severe thunderstorms currently organizing across northern Wisconsin, with additional storms out ahead of this line working over Lake Michigan. While model guidance has struggled to handle the evolution of these storms, current confidence is that storms will trek ESE through the early morning hours along a gradient of elevated buoyancy extending over into mid-Michigan. Highest severe potential appears to lie west of Lake Michigan as these storms will encounter an increasingly unfavorable environment with eastward extent, especially over Lake Michigan and into the CWA where only a few hundred joules of MUCAPE may be in place ahead of these storms. Regardless, a sufficiently organized line of storms should carry enough momentum to bring damaging winds to parts of northern Michigan through early/mid morning -- and a severe thunderstorm watch has been coordinated with SPC to highlight this threat through 9AM at this time. Best chances for severe wind gusts will come across northwest lower Michigan in closer proximity to the lakeshores and is expected to diminish further inland. Large hail will also be possible early this morning, primarily with ongoing activity currently over Lake Michigan that lies ahead of the main line of storms still draped across northern Wisconsin. Tornado threat appears low at this time given lack of surface-based instability/low-level convective inhibition. There are also low chances for a localized heavy rainfall/flash flooding threat this morning as these storms work across northwest lower.
Quick rainfall of 1-2" per hour may lead to some impacts in city locations this morning. Otherwise, rain/thunder chances are largely expected to end by late morning/early afternoon with clearing of skies and highs in the upper 70s/low 80s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 244 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Midlevel jet maxima spanning across the U.S/Canadian boarder with embedded height disturbances will continue active weather at times this week. Shortwave troughing currently north of the Upper Midwest will be occupying the Great Lakes region at the start of the forecast period. Conditions begin to dry through the midweek ahead of an additional trough returning chances of showers/storms towards the end of the week.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

-Conditions begin to dry as surface high pressure builds this Wednesday through the first half of the long term. Chances of showers return this weekend: A few isolated showers remain possible Wednesday mainly due to some lingering moisture behind the cold front at the start of the long term. Overall, weather remains pretty quiet as upstream longwave midlevel ridge pushes a cool and dry airmass into the Great Lakes region. Besides Wednesday being a little chilly in the 60s, daytime highs will remain around climatological average for the entirety of the forecast period.
Chances of showers and storms return around the Friday/Saturday timeframe as a shortwave trough currently pivoting around midlevel low pressure north of Hudson Bay progresses southward. Still a little too early to messages details, but current ensembles show no evidence of widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 828 AM EDT Tue Jun 25 2024

Band of MVFR to IFR producing low clouds and rain will gradually end from west to east this morning. Expecting VFR conditions at all locations by later this afternoon and tonight under clearing skies. Gusty winds will subside later today and tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ349.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi70 minS 6G14 65°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi70 minWSW 14G17 65°F 29.68
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi50 minSSW 12G17 67°F 62°F


Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KFKS FRANKFORT DOW MEMORIAL FIELD,MI 3 sm14 minWNW 1010 smMostly Cloudy70°F63°F78%29.67
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Wind History graph: FKS
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Gaylord, MI,




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