Sunday, July12, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:17AMSunset 8:34PM Sunday July 12, 2020 5:31 PM CDT (22:31 UTC) Moonrise 12:15AMMoonset 12:45PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202007130245;;742497 Fzus53 Kapx 121833 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 233 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-130245- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 233 Pm Edt Sun Jul 12 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 pm edt this evening...
Through early evening..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..North wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 121831 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 231 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud cover and temperatures

Pattern synopsis/forecast: An elongated area of high pressure extending from Hudson's Bay southward through the Great Lakes will slowly work eastward across the area through the day on Monday. This will result in few sensible weather concerns. Diurnal cumulus fields and gusty northwest winds will dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. An isolated shower will be possible late this afternoon or early evening toward Saginaw Bay. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear tonight. There could be a bit of patchy fog toward the M-55 corridor late. Temperatures will be comfortably cool . dropping into the lower to middle 50s. A few of the typically colder locations could dip into the upper 40s. All in all, great weather to open the windows.

Monday will see some additional diurnal cumulus development - although not as much as today. With the 850mb thermal trough pushing east of the area, temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s to lower 80s in most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorm chances return midweek, including the possibility of a couple stronger storms and locally heavy downpours.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Early this week, mid-upper level ridging is anticipated to be draped across the western Great Lakes region, combined with attendant surface high pressure aiding to bring another round of above normal temperatures and precipitation-free conditions through at least Tuesday. However, shower/storm chances begin as early as Tuesday night, but more so later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong upper wave, currently coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest, treks east-northeast into southern Canada, driving a cold front across northern Michigan during the midweek time frame.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Shower/ storm chances, coverage and intensity midweek.

Tranquil conditions anticipated area-wide Monday night through much of the day Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge axis pivots squarely overhead. Another warm day expected Tuesday as a result with high temps ranging from the mid-upper 80s, some 10 or so degrees above Monday's highs.

Light southerly return flow expected to be ongoing during the day Tuesday, but ramping up slowly as we head through Tuesday night out ahead of the next system expected to cross the region by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Latest guidance trends vs. 24 hours ago have considerably slowed the arrival of the cold front and associated precip, now with many areas east of Interstate 75 expected to remain dry through the entirety of Tuesday night and perhaps through the majority of the day Wednesday. However, a secondary shortwave is expected to round the base of larger scale parent troughing across the central plains during the day Wednesday, racing eastward toward the Great Lakes. This should provide additional moisture/support for shower and storm development later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night that looks to focus across N IL into central and perhaps northeastern lower Michigan. The threat for severe weather remains uncertain given this could largely hinge on upstream convective evolution in an environment locally that looks to be only marginally unstable with deep layer shear approaching 40 kts.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Upper-level flow turns more zonal beyond the midweek system, and any true post-frontal cooling should be rather minimal. Toward the end of the week into the weekend, heights slowly rise and low-level flow once again turns southerly, supporting building heat with highs well into the 80s/lower 90s. Latest guidance consensus suggests shower/storm chances return at various times next weekend, but with lots of uncertainty with respect to timing and coverage.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

The stratocumulus/cumulus field across the area this afternoon will dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. CIGS will vary between high end MVFR and low end VFR for several more hours this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds of 10-20kts will diminish this evening as high pressure slides toward the Great Lakes and the gradient weakens. More diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus expected on Monday. Winds will be lighter with high pressure centered closer to the area.

MARINE. Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Dry weather expected through Monday. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20kts continuing into early this evening before winds subside quickly tonight as high pressure approaches the Great Lakes. Mainly clear overnight with lighter winds. The gradient will be weaker on Monday and the winds less gusty with high pressure centered overhead. The next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . JK MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi51 min NNW 7 G 8.9 71°F 1014.2 hPa
45183 33 mi31 min N 12 G 14 68°F 70°F2 ft
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi51 min NNE 8 G 12 69°F 1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi49 min NNE 8 G 12 72°F 54°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi35 minNW 810.00 miFair73°F59°F62%1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8W6SW6S5W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E4SE5SE4SE4W5W5N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.