Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 231606 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1106 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1049 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Light snow, with somewhat loosely organized bands, are beginning to push to the NE as the winds are switching to the southwest flow that the models have been hinting at. There looks to be a patch of dry air as well, that is expected to move through the region, pushing the snow bands out of NW Lower and into the Straits Region before the SW flow begins to produce a band, ear Mackinac county, and then the clipper snow begins. The forecast, so far looks to be on track, so will leave it as is for the moment. Maybe do some minor adjustments.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave was crossing nrn Michigan early this morning with cold (H8 temps -16C to -18C) in fairly unidirectional flow, continuing to result in lake effect snow in the typical snowbelts. The intensity has dropped off considerably, as inversion heights were under 4kft. Looking just upstream, there was shallow mid level ridging working in from the west, along with associated sfc higher pressure. Even further upstream, a closed off upper low and associated sfc low were spinning in nrn Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with yet another upper low over CA and sfc low in the srn/central Rockies.

The aforementioned mid level ridging and sfc high pressure will cross nrn Michigan today into this evening. 1000-850mb winds will become more anticyclonic, westerly and weaker with time. Inversion heights will also fall further to under 3kft. The exception may be with snow shower activity this morning across eastern Lake Superior, where a minor shortwave ejected from the closed low in Canada, may result in a little bit of enhancement there. Otherwise, less organized and weaker lake effect is expected with time, impacting primarily Whitefish Point and NW lower. Amounts will be minimal and under an inch through today in those westerly flow regimes.

As the mid level ridging exits east of the region after midnight tonight, both upper lows and associated lower sfc pressure will be pushing eastward, resulting in increasing DPVA across the mid/upper Mississippi valley and Great Lakes. Also, the development of a 30- 35kt LLJ will increasingly be tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture/higher theta-e air and feeding it northward. This will bring about increasing chances for seeing system snow breaking out, with back low level flow out of the south potentially enhancing snow in western Mackinac county (but this may hold off for more so Sunday). Due to the late arrival of the snow, amounts will again be minimal, under an inch, and saved for mainly western Chip/Mack counties and the GTV Bay region.

Highs today will generally be in upper teens to lower 20s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the single digits above zero to teens.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

. Snow Showers Sunday .

High impact weather: Perhaps a few slick spots on Sunday?

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops and snow accumulations Sunday.

A weakening Alberta Clipper tracks slowly by to our north Sunday. This system has a ribbon of weak isentropically forced lift as well as a bit of moisture extending southward across the region. This setup is expected to bring periods of light snow Sunday (especially in the morning). Accumulations are still expected to be in the inch or less range. However, will have to watch out for the possibility of some sneaky southerly flow lake enhancement developing across western Mackinac county which could push local accumulations into the few inch range.

Lingering moisture pushes out of the region by Sunday evening with drier air moving in for Sunday night into Monday. At this point the airmass is expected to have modified enough leaving only marginal over lake instability which may only be sufficient to produce clouds.

Highs both days in the milder upper 20s and low 30s. Lows Sunday night in the mid teens to around 20.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

. Minimal Weather Concerns with Milder Temperatures .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Northern Michigan will be in between a nearly cutoff upper level low across central Canada and an active southern jet stream centered across the Ohio Valley. It does not appear that there will be much going on in between across our neck of the woods. In addition, there will likely be a persistent and dry northeasterly flow coming around strong high pressure to our north. This setup should lead to a rather uneventful stretch of weather (with the exception of perhaps some brisk winds at times). Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late January.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Winds continue to weaken and back out of the W/WSW through today as sfc higher pressure and a looser pressure gradient crosses nrn Michigan. Cold air will continue to result in scattered light lake effect snow showers or flurries for mainly PLN, as well as MVFR CIGS at all airports into this morning, before lower end VFR enters the mix at times later this morning and afternoon. The MVFR will impact PLN much more, with mbL likely going VFR sooner today. Weak low pressure approaches late tonight, with the expectation of MVFR CIGS and potential restrictions to VSBYS due to system snow very late in the TAF period at mbL/TVC.

MARINE. Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Winds continue to drop off through the night, as sfc higher pressure and a looser pressure gradient moves into the region. The gradient relaxes further heading through today, before winds kick up again out of the south Sunday. This will be in advance of an area of low pressure, that will bring a good chance for more advisory speeds, along with some light snow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JL NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	27 mi	25 min	WSW 12 G 15	24°F			1027.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	42 mi	85 min	WSW 11 G 16	23°F			1027.8 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	48 mi	53 min	W 7 G 12	24°F				8°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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NW9 G17

NW4 G13

NW7 G14

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NW5 G9

N5 G11

NW4 G9

N6 G10

NW6 G10

NW3 G9

NW5 G11

NW3 G6

NW3 G6

NW3 G7

N2

N2

W5

W6 G9

W7 G11

W8 G11

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1 day ago

W13 G20

W13 G23

W18 G26

W15 G22

NW14 G21

W14 G18

W13 G17

W15 G20

W14 G21

W17 G21

NW8 G13

NW10 G20

NW8 G16

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NW7 G15

NW6 G16

N10 G17

NW7 G12

NW8 G16

N5 G11

N6 G15

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2 days ago

SW11 G19

S16 G20

SW18 G22

S17 G24

S15 G26

S14 G25

S20 G27

S28 G35

SW23 G31

SW21 G31

SW18 G34

SW12 G24

W18 G26

W16 G24

W15 G22

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W12 G22

W11 G18

W11 G18

W13 G19

W14 G20

W11 G19

W12 G19

W14 G20

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI	3 mi	10 min	WSW 7	10.00 mi	Mostly Cloudy	23°F	11°F	59%	1027.1 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	24 mi	9 min	W 12 G 15	10.00 mi	Fair	24°F	11°F	57%	1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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NW8 G15

NW15 G19

NW12 G18

NW12 G18

N9 G14

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Calm

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W11 G22

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NW17 G24

W19 G24

NW16 G23

NW14 G24

W12 G22

W15 G25

NW13 G21

NW15 G23

NW7

N7 G16

N12 G20

NW9 G17

NW9 G19

NW11 G19

NW15 G20

NW12 G19

N12 G16

NW14 G20

NW13 G19

NW8 G16

NW8 G18

NW10 G15

2 days ago

SW10 G18

SW12 G18

S13 G19

S12 G23

S14 G27

S9 G21

S13 G24

SW19 G31

SW19 G30

SW20 G28

SW15 G27

SW13 G23

W9 G19

W15 G24

W12 G18

W8 G18

W11 G18

W8 G18

W11 G17

W9 G18

W10 G18

W11 G17

W8 G15

W10 G17

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Ground Weather Radar Station

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