Saturday, January23, 2021
Privacy Policy
L-36.com

Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 4:50PM Saturday January 23, 2021 11:05 AM CST (17:05 UTC) Moonrise 1:23PMMoonset 3:45AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 313 Am Est Sat Jan 23 2021
Today..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Isolated snow showers early in the morning. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tonight..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Snow likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South wind 15 to 20 knots. Snow showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..East wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346 Expires:202101231615;;348766 FZUS53 KAPX 230813 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 313 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ346-231615-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 44.63, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS63 KAPX 231606 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1106 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 1049 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Light snow, with somewhat loosely organized bands, are beginning to push to the NE as the winds are switching to the southwest flow that the models have been hinting at. There looks to be a patch of dry air as well, that is expected to move through the region, pushing the snow bands out of NW Lower and into the Straits Region before the SW flow begins to produce a band, ear Mackinac county, and then the clipper snow begins. The forecast, so far looks to be on track, so will leave it as is for the moment. Maybe do some minor adjustments.

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Impactful weather: Minimal.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

A shortwave was crossing nrn Michigan early this morning with cold (H8 temps -16C to -18C) in fairly unidirectional flow, continuing to result in lake effect snow in the typical snowbelts. The intensity has dropped off considerably, as inversion heights were under 4kft. Looking just upstream, there was shallow mid level ridging working in from the west, along with associated sfc higher pressure. Even further upstream, a closed off upper low and associated sfc low were spinning in nrn Saskatchewan and Manitoba, with yet another upper low over CA and sfc low in the srn/central Rockies.

The aforementioned mid level ridging and sfc high pressure will cross nrn Michigan today into this evening. 1000-850mb winds will become more anticyclonic, westerly and weaker with time. Inversion heights will also fall further to under 3kft. The exception may be with snow shower activity this morning across eastern Lake Superior, where a minor shortwave ejected from the closed low in Canada, may result in a little bit of enhancement there. Otherwise, less organized and weaker lake effect is expected with time, impacting primarily Whitefish Point and NW lower. Amounts will be minimal and under an inch through today in those westerly flow regimes.

As the mid level ridging exits east of the region after midnight tonight, both upper lows and associated lower sfc pressure will be pushing eastward, resulting in increasing DPVA across the mid/upper Mississippi valley and Great Lakes. Also, the development of a 30- 35kt LLJ will increasingly be tapping Gulf of Mexico moisture/higher theta-e air and feeding it northward. This will bring about increasing chances for seeing system snow breaking out, with back low level flow out of the south potentially enhancing snow in western Mackinac county (but this may hold off for more so Sunday). Due to the late arrival of the snow, amounts will again be minimal, under an inch, and saved for mainly western Chip/Mack counties and the GTV Bay region.

Highs today will generally be in upper teens to lower 20s. Lows tonight will mostly be in the single digits above zero to teens.

SHORT TERM. (Sunday through Monday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

. Snow Showers Sunday .

High impact weather: Perhaps a few slick spots on Sunday?

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Pops and snow accumulations Sunday.

A weakening Alberta Clipper tracks slowly by to our north Sunday. This system has a ribbon of weak isentropically forced lift as well as a bit of moisture extending southward across the region. This setup is expected to bring periods of light snow Sunday (especially in the morning). Accumulations are still expected to be in the inch or less range. However, will have to watch out for the possibility of some sneaky southerly flow lake enhancement developing across western Mackinac county which could push local accumulations into the few inch range.

Lingering moisture pushes out of the region by Sunday evening with drier air moving in for Sunday night into Monday. At this point the airmass is expected to have modified enough leaving only marginal over lake instability which may only be sufficient to produce clouds.

Highs both days in the milder upper 20s and low 30s. Lows Sunday night in the mid teens to around 20.

LONG TERM. (Monday night through Friday) Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

. Minimal Weather Concerns with Milder Temperatures .

High impact weather: None is expected.

Northern Michigan will be in between a nearly cutoff upper level low across central Canada and an active southern jet stream centered across the Ohio Valley. It does not appear that there will be much going on in between across our neck of the woods. In addition, there will likely be a persistent and dry northeasterly flow coming around strong high pressure to our north. This setup should lead to a rather uneventful stretch of weather (with the exception of perhaps some brisk winds at times). Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal for late January.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning) Issued at 550 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Winds continue to weaken and back out of the W/WSW through today as sfc higher pressure and a looser pressure gradient crosses nrn Michigan. Cold air will continue to result in scattered light lake effect snow showers or flurries for mainly PLN, as well as MVFR CIGS at all airports into this morning, before lower end VFR enters the mix at times later this morning and afternoon. The MVFR will impact PLN much more, with mbL likely going VFR sooner today. Weak low pressure approaches late tonight, with the expectation of MVFR CIGS and potential restrictions to VSBYS due to system snow very late in the TAF period at mbL/TVC.

MARINE. Issued at 247 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Winds continue to drop off through the night, as sfc higher pressure and a looser pressure gradient moves into the region. The gradient relaxes further heading through today, before winds kick up again out of the south Sunday. This will be in advance of an area of low pressure, that will bring a good chance for more advisory speeds, along with some light snow.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JL NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi25 min WSW 12 G 15 24°F 1027.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi85 min WSW 11 G 16 23°F 1027.8 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi53 min W 7 G 12 24°F 8°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
Last
24hr
NW9
G17
NW4
G13
NW7
G14
NW4
G14
NW4
G10
NW4
G9
NW5
G9
N5
G11
NW4
G9
N6
G10
NW6
G10
NW3
G9
NW5
G11
NW3
G6
NW3
G6
NW3
G7
N2
N2
W5
W6
G9
W7
G11
W8
G11
W9
G13
W8
G13
1 day
ago
W13
G20
W13
G23
W18
G26
W15
G22
NW14
G21
W14
G18
W13
G17
W15
G20
W14
G21
W17
G21
NW8
G13
NW10
G20
NW8
G16
NW8
G17
NW10
G17
NW11
G18
NW7
G15
NW6
G16
N10
G17
NW7
G12
NW8
G16
N5
G11
N6
G15
N8
G15
2 days
ago
SW11
G19
S16
G20
SW18
G22
S17
G24
S15
G26
S14
G25
S20
G27
S28
G35
SW23
G31
SW21
G31
SW18
G34
SW12
G24
W18
G26
W16
G24
W15
G22
W16
G23
W12
G22
W11
G18
W11
G18
W13
G19
W14
G20
W11
G19
W12
G19
W14
G20

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI3 mi10 minWSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy23°F11°F59%1027.1 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi9 minW 12 G 1510.00 miFair24°F11°F57%1028.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrNW8
G15
NW15
G19
NW12
G18
NW12
G18
N9
G14
NW8N8NW10
G15
NW7NW6NW8NW9CalmNW5NW3NW5NW3NW6CalmCalmCalmW4W6W7
1 day agoW11
G22
W10
G22
NW17
G24
W19
G24
NW16
G23
NW14
G24
W12
G22
W15
G25
NW13
G21
NW15
G23
NW7N7
G16
N12
G20
NW9
G17
NW9
G19
NW11
G19
NW15
G20
NW12
G19
N12
G16
NW14
G20
NW13
G19
NW8
G16
NW8
G18
NW10
G15
2 days agoSW10
G18
SW12
G18
S13
G19
S12
G23
S14
G27
S9
G21
S13
G24
SW19
G31
SW19
G30
SW20
G28
SW15
G27
SW13
G23
W9
G19
W15
G24
W12
G18
W8
G18
W11
G18
W8
G18
W11
G17
W9
G18
W10
G18
W11
G17
W8
G15
W10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
       (on/off)   Help Weather Map
wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




Cookie Policy:
This website uses cookies to save your settings. No personal information is saved. I do not collect statistics on your visit. You can disable cookies in your browser if you like but it is not recommended for this site. I do not sell cookies. Go to a bakery for that. In fact I do not sell anything. To disable cookies from L-36.com, please refer to the Help button in your browser.
Privacy Policy:
I do not sell or share any user data or anything else for that matter. The only personal information I save is in the site log which has a line for each page view which includes the IP address your browser sends in the header as well as which page you requested. I use this to block hackers and other bad actors. I do not use this raw data to create profiles on users. I periodically delete the log files. Google supplies the ads on this site. Because I do not track who you are, I cannot customize how these ads are served. They may be personalized to improve the ad experience. If you do not want personalized ads, please adjust the settings on the Google site HERE. NOTE: The best I can determine, this site is not subject to CCPA but I am doing my best to comply anyway.
Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.