Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 191139 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 639 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

. Lake effect to diminish .

High Impact Weather Potential: vigorous lake effect snow in southern sections early this morning.

999mb low pressure is departing the region, now east of Georgian Bay. A trailing trof axis/secondary cold front, with both lake- aggregate and synoptic components, extends back across Harrisville and Empire. W to wnw low- level flow south of the trof, quickly veers northerly to the north. This trof axis should spend the morning moving steadily southward, and conditions for lake effect snow are less favorable behind it.

Heavy lake effect snow showers have been occurring with, and just ahead of, the surface trof. Parts of central/northern Kalkaska Co probably got several inches of snow in a 2-hour period early this morning. Also, interesting to see significant banded structures extend well into ne lower MI. However, this has all been unsteadily shifting southward with time. Near-term guidance shows these bands slipping entirely south of M-72 by 5 am, and largely out of northern lower MI by 8 am. Post-trof activity to this point is just very light snow. There are parts of northern lower MI that see decent snow showers with a roughly 010 (just east of north) flow. That includes Gd Trav/Leelanau/Benzie/ Manistee Cos, as well as the ne lower MI coastline from Rogers to Tawas. Will play up snow showers in these areas more than guidance progs this morning. This is still a period in which deeper synoptic mid-level moisture is present (at least in northern lower MI). Some localized inch-ish accums may occur after sunrise.

Given the above, will be canceling winter wx advisories early in northern sections.

As we move thru the afternoon, mid-level drying will make a southward push out of eastern upper MI and across northern lower. That will further diminish lingering lake effect snows. Eastern upper MI should bust out into a healthy amount of sunshine by early afternoon, and this may proceed as far south as M-32 closer to sunset.

Tonight, though northerly 1000-850mb winds will maintain 850mb temps in the mid minus teens, this air is very dry. Some small chances for snow showers will persist, mainly in nw lower MI, w of TVC. Overnight, a vigorous shortwave will dig due south across MN. Outer edge of mid-level moist shield will just scrape central Lake MI. This may be enough to produce a small boost to lake effect coverage (mainly near mbL), and will contribute some cloud cover to the west at a minimum. Ne lower MI will be mostly clear, with partial to mostly cloudy conditions west of I-75 in both peninsulas.

Max temps today near 20f to the mid 20s. Mins tonight in single digits to mid teens. Lowered guidance min temps in interior ne lower MI several degrees.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . How fast temperatures will moderate.

An upper level trough slides by to our southwest Monday while upper level heights are on the rise from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes region into Tuesday. So after a seasonably chilly Martin Luther King Jr Day Monday, Tuesday should see moderating temperatures. Soundings Monday across eastern upper and northwest lower portray a shallow but fairly strong surface based inversion so mostly cloudy skies are likely. Downsloping across eastern zones will lead to a better chance for some daytime sunshine. The inversion may tend to weaken Tuesday so all areas could see some sun.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

High Impact Weather . Perhaps some mixed precipitation later in the week into early next weekend.

Forecast Concerns . Precipitation type later in the week into early next weekend.

Upper level ridging holds across most areas through Wednesday except for falling heights late Wednesday across northwest zones. Meanwhile, troughing gradually expands from the Rockies northeast into the Great Lakes region late in the week into early next weekend. Additionally at the same time, surface low pressure is shown to slowly develop and move toward the region. This will bring chances for rain and snow showers as temperatures continue to moderate.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 639 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

Heaviest lake effect snows are exiting to the south and weakening, as a passing secondary front bring northerly flow and cool but drier air. TVC/MBL will likely see snow showers in the area thru the morning, then diminishing, while PLN/APN see improving conditions today. A few snow showers could linger tonight at mbL, otherwise quiet wx and mostly VFR conditions expected.

Nw to n winds will be somewhat gusty today, especially early.

MARINE. Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

A trof/secondary cold front is sinking south across northern lower MI, behind departing low pressure. Winds will veer northerly behind this trof early this morning. Brisk winds will continue today, diminishing somewhat tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020- 025>027-031>033. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-026-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ028- 034-035. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344. GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ345-346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	27 mi	34 min	NNW 24 G 30	28°F			1014.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	42 mi	34 min	NNW 25 G 35	27°F			1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	48 mi	62 min	WNW 8 G 17	25°F				20°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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E9 G14

E8 G12

SE9 G14

SE6 G10

E5

W15 G19

W17

W15 G22

W16 G25

W16 G22

W15 G22

W16 G22

W18 G25

W26 G33

W19 G26

W20 G27

W18 G27

W14 G21

NW14 G23

W14 G21

W14 G21

W11 G16

NW8 G17

NW11 G20

1 day ago

SE4

SE5 G10

E8 G12

SE7 G12

E5 G10

SE6 G11

SE5 G10

SE6 G10

SE4 G7

SE6 G9

E5 G8

SE6 G10

SE6 G12

E9 G15

E6 G12

E7 G11

E9 G14

E14 G20

E14 G21

E12 G22

E8 G17

SE11 G16

SE12 G20

SE8 G15

2 days ago

W12 G19

NW11 G18

NW8 G18

NW9 G17

NW6 G17

NW9 G15

N9 G14

NW5 G11

NW4 G12

NW5 G10

NW3 G10

NW5 G11

N3 G8

NW4 G7

N5 G8

NW4

N3

N4

N3

NE2

E5

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E5 G8

E6 G9

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI	3 mi	19 min	N 10 G 16	5.00 mi	Light Snow	23°F	17°F	79%	1014.9 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	24 mi	18 min	N 10	5.00 mi	Light Snow	25°F	19°F	81%	1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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SE9 G18

SE10 G16

SE9

E5

SE4

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Calm

W11 G18

W18 G27

W15 G24

W15 G31

W18 G24

W16 G27

W16 G24

W18 G25

W15 G27

NW15 G25

W20 G27

NW17 G29

NW16 G23

NW18 G24

NW18 G21

N8

N6 G18

1 day ago

SE4

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E8 G15

E10 G17

E13 G18

SE8 G17

SE13 G20

SE11 G20

SE13 G18

SE12

2 days ago

NW12 G21

NW15 G19

NW15 G20

NW16 G19

NW11 G19

NW14 G23

NW9 G17

NW11 G16

N7 G17

NW8 G14

NW8

NW5

NW5

NW6

NW7

NW5

N3

NW3

NW3

Calm

SE3

SE3

E4

SE3

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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