Friday, September20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:34AMSunset 6:54PM Friday September 20, 2019 7:39 PM CDT (00:39 UTC) Moonrise 10:22PMMoonset 12:47PM Illumination 57% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:201909210430;;091350 Fzus53 Kapx 202029 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 429 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-210430- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 429 Pm Edt Fri Sep 20 2019
Through early evening..West wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of marine stratus. Otherwise, partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday night..South wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Showers likely. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 3 to 5 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 202358
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
758 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 326 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019

Mainly quiet through tonight...

high impact weather potential: minimal. Some fog possible
tonight.

Pattern synopsis forecast: afternoon composite analysis reveals a
non-descript pattern with weakening surface high pressure across
the great lakes but a pesky weak short-wave trough circulation
slowly working across northern lake huron. Remnants of a narrow
moisture channel remain stretched up through lower michigan. Weak
background forcing with the wave acting on that moisture continues
to produce stubborn very light showers sprinkles through the tip
of the mitt region although it appears like that is finally about
done.

Otherwise, mid cloud cover has been gradually thinning across the
region. But with heating and very modest instability, "heating of
the day" CU has been gradually expanding across interior portions
of eastern upper and northern lower michigan. CU is most robust
and congested across north-central lower michigan although no
signs of any precip on kapx radar... So far.

Primary forecast concerns: shower chances through the rest of the
afternoon. Some fog tonight.

Weak short-wave circulation and associated sprinkles should finally
exit our area in the next few hours. And with the ever shortening
daytime hours, window for any pop-up showers storms will be closing
fairly soon as well. But given some modest instability and inland
low level convergence, I still think there is yet an opportunity
for a few showers to pop late this afternoon early evening.

Weak flow, a moist boundary layer and thinning cloud cover will
likely lead to some fog again tonight. But I don't think it will
become a big deal.

Short term (Saturday through Monday)
issued at 326 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019
high impact weather potential: thunderstorms possible Saturday night
through Monday morning. Heavy rain potential Sunday through Monday
morning.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
return moisture from the gulf of mexico (possibly enhanced by the
remnants of tropical storm imelda) will impact northern michigan
throughout the forecast period. Models have 1.50-2.00" pwats progged
for our area Saturday night through Friday morning ahead of a weak,
very slow moving cold front associated with a low pressure system
near hudson bay approaching from the west. This will provide
southerly to southwesterly winds through Sunday and then veer to
more westerly and northwesterly Monday after frontal passage. There
is still a very large spread from ensemble members for qpf
amounts... Ranging from a tenth of an inch to 1.30"... For a mean of
about a half an inch. The mean from has decreased the past couple
runs, with only about 0.40" of rainfall by Sunday morning and
another tenth falling throughout the day Sunday. So still not very
confident with QPF amounts and will have to continue monitoring each
model run for updates. Wpc does have the forecast area in a marginal
risk for excessive rainfall for day 3. With unfavorable synoptic
conditions for strong to severe thunderstorms... Any thunderstorms
that do develop should not have any severe threat... With mostly
heavy rain and lightning being the main threats. High temperatures
will continue to be above normal Saturday... Reaching into the upper
70s to low 80s, but will be back to normal Sunday and Monday, only
reaching into the upper 60s Sunday under cloud cover and rain and
into the low to mid 60s Monday behind the aforementioned cold front.

South to southwesterly winds will be gusty Saturday afternoon
through Sunday ahead of said cold front... Gusting to 20-30 mph, with
the strongest gusts near the lake michigan shoreline.

Long term (Monday night through Friday)
issued at 326 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019
high impact weather potential: minimal.

Some residual low level moisture may allow isolated to scattered
showers to linger into Monday night. Overall Tuesday weak shortwave
ridging moves overhead with surface high pressure continuing to dry
things out. Another low treks through ontario Wednesday into
Thursday, dragging another front across us for renewed shower
chances. Temperatures return to near normal or slightly above normal
for much of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Saturday evening)
issued at 744 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019
lingering diurnally-driven CU expected to fade shortly as
instability is lost. Increasing high clouds overnight gives way to
more cumulus on Saturday. Still expecting primarilyVFR conditions
until later Saturday afternoon when cloud bases start to lower
ahead of an approaching front. May see a few showers spread north
across the area Saturday, but better rain chances hold off until
just after this TAF period. Light winds become gusty out of the
south and southwest Saturday afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 326 pm edt Fri sep 20 2019
light winds waves anticipated tonight through Saturday morning.

But stronger SW flow develops during the day Saturday and persists
through Sunday. Small craft advisories are a good bet for many
nearshore areas through much of the weekend.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Near term... Ba
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... mb
marine... Ba


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi60 min ENE 1.9 G 4.1 69°F 1020.7 hPa
45183 33 mi40 min N 1.9 G 1.9 67°F 66°F1021.5 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi60 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 69°F 1020.7 hPa
45024 48 mi30 min ENE 1.9 G 1.9 69°F 68°F1019.7 hPa66°F
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi58 min S 1 G 1.9 70°F 64°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI3 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair69°F62°F80%1020 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi44 minN 010.00 miFair66°F64°F96%1019.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W5W5W4NW3W6NW3N3CalmCalm
1 day agoS6S6CalmS5S8SE9
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE4E4SE4SE5E4CalmSE4S8S6SW7S10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.