Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:22PM Tuesday July 27, 2021 12:34 AM CDT (05:34 UTC) Moonrise 10:40PMMoonset 9:16AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202107271115;;515296 Fzus53 Kapx 270305 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 1105 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-271115- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1105 Pm Edt Mon Jul 26 2021
Overnight..Southwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Isolated showers and Thunderstorms after midnight, then numerous Thunderstorms and scattered showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Light winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 270402 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1202 AM EDT Tue Jul 27 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 437 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Convection has developed over ne WI, with a relatively large cluster nearing MNM. The airmass over ne WI has surface dew points in the mid 60s to near 70f. On our side of Lake MI, dew points are in the low 60s along the coast, and in the 50s inland. We are not unstable on this side of the lake, and CAMs are in good agreement that convection will struggle to cross the lake until much later this evening. (Mind you, those CAMS were earlier in agreement that convection would not fire in ne WI this afternoon.) Am keeping the early evening forecast dry for now in nw lower MI, but will need to monitor of course.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. Showers and storms return for some tonight .

High impact weather potential:

Nw flow aloft continues, with a jet max/shortwave digging toward southern Manitoba. Surface high pressure continues to drift se- ward from se IA toward the OH Valley. Warm/moist return flow is increasing into the eastern Dakotas and MN, and a warm front is becoming better defined in that area. Wx is quiet here presently, with only a few to sct cu in some spots. But active wx is progged to move into the area, toward and especially after midnight.

A plume of significant instability (MlCape values 1.5k-2k j/kg)is only just now starting to advance across the warm sector into sw MN. The tip of this plume eventually arcs toward western Superior and surrounding land areas this evening. There it will encounter the digging shortwave and associated heights falls, helping initiate convection over northern MN and western upper MI shortly after 00Z/8pm. Fast mid-level flow (wnw 500mb winds of 50-60kt) will quickly push activity se-ward with time. As is all too typical, instability will be relatively meager here (mid to high triple- digit MuCape values), with organized convection likely to be in a weakening state when it arrives overnight. But shear values are impressive (0-6km bulk shear circa 50kt in northern sections). Not out of the question for overnight storms to pose a wind damage threat just out of sheer momentum.

Only start to introduce very small pops toward 10-11pm, with likely pops south of M-28 and north of M-32 arriving after midnight. Axis of highest pops will settle southward toward M-32 and M-72 as we approach dawn. Localized rainfall amounts of 0.5-1.0" are forecast, mainly after 2 am.

Min temps were lowered a touch, as we will have a short window to see some radiative cooling before clouds increase. Min temps near 60 to the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. Lingering rain and thunder chances through Tuesday afternoon .

High impact weather potential: Lingering hit and miss thunder possible through Tuesday afternoon, although none are expected to become severe at this time.

Upper flow regime remains fairly steady with high pressure centered over the western half of the CONUS and low amplitude troughing across the far eastern side. This northwesterly flow between the two said features will produce some chances of rain through early afternoon Tuesday with ample moisture from monsoonal moisture being advected in on lower levels combining with already available moisture and mid-level disturbances riding the eastern periphery of aforementioned ridge centered over the Rocky mountain chain and into northern Michigan. Instability will be lacking over northern Michigan throughout Tuesday from stratiform precip/clouds as convection upstream flows into our area. Rain chances will diminish throughout the afternoon hours Tuesday as a narrow area of drier air takes over from surface high pressure centered to our west and another mid-level perturbation approaches from the northwest. This next disturbance will once again bring rain chances into the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and continue into the next forecast period.

Winds will be light and variable Tuesday before a more southerly component takes over ahead of the next disturbance . but still remain light through Wednesday night. Could see some gusts around 10- 15 mph during the afternoon hours Wednesday due to diurnal mixing.

Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s during the afternoon hours and drop to the mid 50s to 60 degrees Tuesday night.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

. More shower/storm chances at times .

High impact weather potential: Minimal for now.

Northwest flow aloft talked about in the short term section above continues relatively unabated through the rest of the week. Current trends support next fast moving wave (mentioned in the previous forecast period) continuing shower potential through early afternoon Thursday. Models are hinting at some moderately heavy rain amounts in a relatively short timeframe . especially south of the M-55 cooridor. Another wave may possibly arrive Saturday giving us additional rain chances through early Sunday. Seasonably mild conditions will continue, with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Thursday, but "cooling" to mostly in the 70s for Friday and most of the rest of the long term forecast period.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night) Issued at 1150 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Main concern is the line of thunderstorms moving out of W Upper and N Wisconsin. Timing on this line is for sometime around 07z/Tue. Think that the first hour or two of the line will have the thunder, then rain showers after the line goes through. The thunderstorms are elevated convection, so low level wind shear will be an issue through the first 3 to 6 hours of the TAFs. AFter that, the winds will begin to mix. CIGS will lift by 12z/Tue, and then the skies are expected to clear out by the afternoon.

MARINE. Issued at 333 PM EDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Weak systems passing thru the region will kick off occasional shower/t-storm chances. But winds will remain relatively light, and waves benign. Sw-erly breezes tonight, becoming northern by late Tue and Tue night.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . JZ NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . TL LONG TERM . TL AVIATION . JL MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi55 min SSE 4.1 G 7 70°F 1015.6 hPa
45183 33 mi35 min SSW 7.8 G 9.7 75°F 68°F1 ft
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi55 min S 8 G 12 72°F 1015.6 hPa
45024 48 mi25 min SSW 9.7 G 12 73°F 71°F2 ft1015.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi125 min SSW 12 G 16 76°F 61°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI3 mi40 minSSW 610.00 miFair75°F60°F59%1014.2 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair65°F65°F100%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5SW3W8W5SW7SW6SW3CalmSW4SW3CalmCalmCalmSW5SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W3SW4W5W4SW5W6W6SW4CalmW3W5CalmCalmW3Calm
2 days agoS4S5S6
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Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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