Sunday, January19, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elberta, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 4:44PM Sunday January 19, 2020 7:14 AM CST (13:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:14AMMoonset 1:27PM Illumination 31% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Expires:202001191700;;179136 Fzus53 Kapx 190837 Nshapx Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord Mi 337 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lakes Huron... Michigan And Superior. Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Lmz345-346-191700- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 337 Am Est Sun Jan 19 2020
.gale warning in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..Northwest wind up to 30 knots with gusts to around 40 knots becoming north in the morning, then decreasing to 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots in the late morning. Periods of snow showers, then snow showers likely in the morning. Chance of snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 5 to 8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Slight chance of snow showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ346


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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location: 44.63, -86.26     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 191139 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 639 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

. Lake effect to diminish .

High Impact Weather Potential: vigorous lake effect snow in southern sections early this morning.

999mb low pressure is departing the region, now east of Georgian Bay. A trailing trof axis/secondary cold front, with both lake- aggregate and synoptic components, extends back across Harrisville and Empire. W to wnw low- level flow south of the trof, quickly veers northerly to the north. This trof axis should spend the morning moving steadily southward, and conditions for lake effect snow are less favorable behind it.

Heavy lake effect snow showers have been occurring with, and just ahead of, the surface trof. Parts of central/northern Kalkaska Co probably got several inches of snow in a 2-hour period early this morning. Also, interesting to see significant banded structures extend well into ne lower MI. However, this has all been unsteadily shifting southward with time. Near-term guidance shows these bands slipping entirely south of M-72 by 5 am, and largely out of northern lower MI by 8 am. Post-trof activity to this point is just very light snow. There are parts of northern lower MI that see decent snow showers with a roughly 010 (just east of north) flow. That includes Gd Trav/Leelanau/Benzie/ Manistee Cos, as well as the ne lower MI coastline from Rogers to Tawas. Will play up snow showers in these areas more than guidance progs this morning. This is still a period in which deeper synoptic mid-level moisture is present (at least in northern lower MI). Some localized inch-ish accums may occur after sunrise.

Given the above, will be canceling winter wx advisories early in northern sections.

As we move thru the afternoon, mid-level drying will make a southward push out of eastern upper MI and across northern lower. That will further diminish lingering lake effect snows. Eastern upper MI should bust out into a healthy amount of sunshine by early afternoon, and this may proceed as far south as M-32 closer to sunset.

Tonight, though northerly 1000-850mb winds will maintain 850mb temps in the mid minus teens, this air is very dry. Some small chances for snow showers will persist, mainly in nw lower MI, w of TVC. Overnight, a vigorous shortwave will dig due south across MN. Outer edge of mid-level moist shield will just scrape central Lake MI. This may be enough to produce a small boost to lake effect coverage (mainly near mbL), and will contribute some cloud cover to the west at a minimum. Ne lower MI will be mostly clear, with partial to mostly cloudy conditions west of I-75 in both peninsulas.

Max temps today near 20f to the mid 20s. Mins tonight in single digits to mid teens. Lowered guidance min temps in interior ne lower MI several degrees.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

High Impact Weather . None is expected.

Forecast Concerns . How fast temperatures will moderate.

An upper level trough slides by to our southwest Monday while upper level heights are on the rise from the Ohio Valley to the Great Lakes region into Tuesday. So after a seasonably chilly Martin Luther King Jr Day Monday, Tuesday should see moderating temperatures. Soundings Monday across eastern upper and northwest lower portray a shallow but fairly strong surface based inversion so mostly cloudy skies are likely. Downsloping across eastern zones will lead to a better chance for some daytime sunshine. The inversion may tend to weaken Tuesday so all areas could see some sun.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

High Impact Weather . Perhaps some mixed precipitation later in the week into early next weekend.

Forecast Concerns . Precipitation type later in the week into early next weekend.

Upper level ridging holds across most areas through Wednesday except for falling heights late Wednesday across northwest zones. Meanwhile, troughing gradually expands from the Rockies northeast into the Great Lakes region late in the week into early next weekend. Additionally at the same time, surface low pressure is shown to slowly develop and move toward the region. This will bring chances for rain and snow showers as temperatures continue to moderate.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 639 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

Heaviest lake effect snows are exiting to the south and weakening, as a passing secondary front bring northerly flow and cool but drier air. TVC/MBL will likely see snow showers in the area thru the morning, then diminishing, while PLN/APN see improving conditions today. A few snow showers could linger tonight at mbL, otherwise quiet wx and mostly VFR conditions expected.

Nw to n winds will be somewhat gusty today, especially early.

MARINE. Issued at 321 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

A trof/secondary cold front is sinking south across northern lower MI, behind departing low pressure. Winds will veer northerly behind this trof early this morning. Brisk winds will continue today, diminishing somewhat tonight.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 PM EST this evening for MIZ020- 025>027-031>033. LAKESHORE FLOOD ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for MIZ020-025-026-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY until 7 AM EST this morning for MIZ028- 034-035. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LHZ345>349. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LMZ323- 341-342-344. GALE WARNING until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ345-346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JZ SHORT TERM . AS LONG TERM . AS AVIATION . JZ MARINE . JZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi34 min NNW 24 G 30 28°F 1014.9 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi34 min NNW 25 G 35 27°F 1014.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi62 min WNW 8 G 17 25°F 20°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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E9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI3 mi19 minN 10 G 165.00 miLight Snow23°F17°F79%1014.9 hPa
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI24 mi18 minN 105.00 miLight Snow25°F19°F81%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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SE9E5SE4SE3CalmW11
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N8N6
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1 day agoSE4SE5SE7SE8SE4S8SE6SE7SE4SE3SE5E7SE7SE5E6SE7E8
G15
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2 days agoNW12
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NW8NW5NW5NW6NW7NW5N3NW3NW3CalmSE3SE3E4SE3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.