Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 121831 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 231 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Monday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: None

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Cloud cover and temperatures

Pattern synopsis/forecast: An elongated area of high pressure extending from Hudson's Bay southward through the Great Lakes will slowly work eastward across the area through the day on Monday. This will result in few sensible weather concerns. Diurnal cumulus fields and gusty northwest winds will dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. An isolated shower will be possible late this afternoon or early evening toward Saginaw Bay. Otherwise, becoming mostly clear tonight. There could be a bit of patchy fog toward the M-55 corridor late. Temperatures will be comfortably cool . dropping into the lower to middle 50s. A few of the typically colder locations could dip into the upper 40s. All in all, great weather to open the windows.

Monday will see some additional diurnal cumulus development - although not as much as today. With the 850mb thermal trough pushing east of the area, temperatures will rebound into the upper 70s to lower 80s in most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: Scattered thunderstorm chances return midweek, including the possibility of a couple stronger storms and locally heavy downpours.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Early this week, mid-upper level ridging is anticipated to be draped across the western Great Lakes region, combined with attendant surface high pressure aiding to bring another round of above normal temperatures and precipitation-free conditions through at least Tuesday. However, shower/storm chances begin as early as Tuesday night, but more so later Wednesday into Wednesday night as a strong upper wave, currently coming ashore in the Pacific Northwest, treks east-northeast into southern Canada, driving a cold front across northern Michigan during the midweek time frame.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Shower/ storm chances, coverage and intensity midweek.

Tranquil conditions anticipated area-wide Monday night through much of the day Tuesday as the aforementioned ridge axis pivots squarely overhead. Another warm day expected Tuesday as a result with high temps ranging from the mid-upper 80s, some 10 or so degrees above Monday's highs.

Light southerly return flow expected to be ongoing during the day Tuesday, but ramping up slowly as we head through Tuesday night out ahead of the next system expected to cross the region by Wednesday night/Thursday morning. Latest guidance trends vs. 24 hours ago have considerably slowed the arrival of the cold front and associated precip, now with many areas east of Interstate 75 expected to remain dry through the entirety of Tuesday night and perhaps through the majority of the day Wednesday. However, a secondary shortwave is expected to round the base of larger scale parent troughing across the central plains during the day Wednesday, racing eastward toward the Great Lakes. This should provide additional moisture/support for shower and storm development later Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night that looks to focus across N IL into central and perhaps northeastern lower Michigan. The threat for severe weather remains uncertain given this could largely hinge on upstream convective evolution in an environment locally that looks to be only marginally unstable with deep layer shear approaching 40 kts.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

High impact weather potential: Minimal.

Upper-level flow turns more zonal beyond the midweek system, and any true post-frontal cooling should be rather minimal. Toward the end of the week into the weekend, heights slowly rise and low-level flow once again turns southerly, supporting building heat with highs well into the 80s/lower 90s. Latest guidance consensus suggests shower/storm chances return at various times next weekend, but with lots of uncertainty with respect to timing and coverage.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 100 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

The stratocumulus/cumulus field across the area this afternoon will dissipate quickly this evening with the loss of daytime heating. CIGS will vary between high end MVFR and low end VFR for several more hours this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds of 10-20kts will diminish this evening as high pressure slides toward the Great Lakes and the gradient weakens. More diurnal cumulus/stratocumulus expected on Monday. Winds will be lighter with high pressure centered closer to the area.

MARINE. Issued at 228 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Dry weather expected through Monday. Gusty northwest winds of 15-20kts continuing into early this evening before winds subside quickly tonight as high pressure approaches the Great Lakes. Mainly clear overnight with lighter winds. The gradient will be weaker on Monday and the winds less gusty with high pressure centered overhead. The next chance of rain arrives on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ346>348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 7 PM EDT this evening for LSZ321-322.

NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . MG LONG TERM . MG AVIATION . JK MARINE . JK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI	27 mi	51 min	NNW 7 G 8.9	71°F			1014.2 hPa
45183	33 mi	31 min	N 12 G 14	68°F	70°F	2 ft
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI	42 mi	51 min	NNE 8 G 12	69°F			1013.9 hPa
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI	48 mi	49 min	NNE 8 G 12	72°F				54°F

Wind History for Ludington, MI

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SW3 G7

W7 G14

NW8 G14

NE3 G6

NW8 G12

N9 G15

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N6 G13

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Manistee County - Blacker Airport, MI	24 mi	35 min	NW 8	10.00 mi	Fair	73°F	59°F	62%	1012.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)

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N10 G15

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (18,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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