Elberta, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Elberta, MI

March 4, 2024 3:25 AM CST (09:25 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 5:44 PM
Moonrise 3:30 AM   Moonset 11:32 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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LMZ346 Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 414 Am Est Mon Mar 4 2024

Today - South wind 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less, then becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late morning becoming south. Isolated showers in the morning. Numerous showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the afternoon.

Tonight - North wind 15 to 20 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday - North wind 10 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Tuesday night - Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elberta, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 040832 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EST Mon Mar 4 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Record to near record high temperatures today.

- Showers and possible thunderstorms late today into early Tuesday.

- Much cooler, though still above normal, for the rest of the work week. Possibly colder for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Note: TVC set a new record high for today (March 4) right when we hit midnight, and since then PLN has risen to tie their record high.

Pattern Synopsis...southerly low-level return flow continues.
However, some changes are in the offing. 991mb surface low pressure is lifting northward near Winnipeg. The associated occluded/cold front curls down toward western upper MI and the WI coastline of Lake MI. This front will slow further as it tries to move into this forecast area.

Forecast...ahead of the front, a couple of bands of showers are pressing across eastern upper MI. Lightning was seen just north of the Sault (close enough for Sault Canada carry thunder, but not ANJ/Sault MI). Otherwise, the region was pretty quiet.
Marine stratus continues over eastern upper MI, as se winds and near 40f dew point air crosses chilly northern Lk Huron. The front will just barely drift into the forecast area today, making the greatest inroads into eastern upper MI. That slow frontal progress continues into tonight, especially as a surface waves lifts up that front. The wave will be over central/ northern lower MI at daybreak Tuesday.

There will be a relative lull in precip chances this morning; perhaps a small chance for a shower (mainly in eastern upper MI). But we're seeing drier air working in behind these initial band of showers..thus the lull. Thru the afternoon, return flow will ramp up substantially in the destabilizing warm sector (IL and nearby areas). That will result in an expanding swath (extending sw to ne) of precip in the upper MS Valley and northern lakes. The bulk of this will be to our west during the daylight hours today, but some will gradually bleed into western and northern sections, especially as we head toward evening.
Perhaps a rumble of thunder with this as well.

Tonight, that congealing area of convection to our west will gradually shift eastward over our heads. 925-800mb ssw flow of 30-40kt will feed in relatively moist and marginally unstable air from the south. MuCape values of circa 500j/kg or even a bit more make their best push into the area this evening into early overnight. Categorical pops expand across the area from w to e during the night, and this looks like a solid soaking rain for most of the area (which is something we need...a crazy thing to say in very early March). Event QPF (all the way into Tue morning) ranges from half an inch to an inch. Thunder chances will be present everywhere, but will be highest in the south half. Late in the overnight, parts of the eastern UP get far enough behind the front, and get enough northerly cold advection at low levels, to allow precip to mix with and turn to snow. This isn't going to be a big deal, given warm BL/ground temps, and precip starting to taper off as the precip change develops. But a quick coating of snow could be laid down, especially in western Chip and Mack Cos.

Max temps today range form near 50f in the far north, to the mid and even upper 60s in the south. Lows tonight from the low-mid 30s eastern upper MI, to the upper 40s near Saginaw Bay.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Frontal system will be pushing off to the southeast on Tuesday, with precipitation diminishing from west to east across the area.
Generally dry and quiet Wednesday and Wednesday night as high pressure builds to the north and northeast of the region.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Frontal system will be moving through northern lower by Tuesday morning with rain showers and isolated embedded thunderstorms to the southeast, and some light wintry precipitation to the northwest across eastern upper as cold air advects in behind the front. That being said, temperatures will be marginal, and besides a few isolated slick roadways, the wintry precipitation should not be all that impactful. Precipitation will end across the area from west to east during the day on Tuesday with much cooler temperatures (temperatures in the 40s compared to 60s the previous day).

No major concerns on Wednesday as high pressure builds to the north and northeast of the region. Sfc winds will respond by shifting from the north and northeast to the southeast Wednesday night. That cooler north to northeast flow may result in a couple degrees of cooling on Wednesday, but nothing substantial (temperatures still in the 40s across a good chunk of northern Michigan). Dry conditions expected as well.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Expect a few degrees of warming Thursday into Friday due to southwest flow aloft and more southerly sfc winds. Otherwise, eyes are on a storm system for late Friday into the weekend. Latest global deterministic guidance suggests a good slug of moisture advects into the region out ahead of a trough resulting in rounds of precipitation. GFS/CMC more aggressive than ECM, which shows the heaviest precip to the southeast and east of the region. Will lean towards this solution due to ensemble guidance generally agreeing (GEFS, EPS, GEPS). Ensembles suggest ~20-40% chance for half an inch of QPF (north and northwest portions of the area more like 10-20%)
with this system, again the best potential to the southeast.
Potential for 3" of snow is rather meager as well, around 10-20% due to the lack of QPF in addition to marginal temperatures.
Nonetheless, still time for the pattern to shift a little so will need to watch this system, but does not look like a major event for the time being.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Low level wind shear will end quickly early this morning across all taf locations. Approaching front will bring an expanding area of MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities to the region later this afternoon and evening. Rain will accompany these lower cigs, with fairly widespread rain expected as we head into tonight. Surface winds will become light this morning, increasing again out of the south later today into this evening.

MARINE

Se to s surface winds will continue to slowly weaken, as a cold front creeps into and eventually crosses northern MI. Still, advisories may need to be extended into later portions of the day today, especially on Lakes Huron/Superior. Northerly flow will develop and increase behind the cold front tonight (especially late) into Tuesday, and advisories may again be needed.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LHZ346>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LMZ323-341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for LSZ321-322.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 27 mi46 min SSW 8.9G14 48°F
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 42 mi46 min S 11G14 43°F 29.92
LDTM4 - 9087023 - Ludington, MI 48 mi56 min SSW 15G22 49°F 41°F


Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KFKS FRANKFORT DOW MEMORIAL FIELD,MI 3 sm10 minS 0410 smClear50°F41°F71%29.90
Link to 5 minute data for KFKS


Wind History from FKS
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Tide / Current for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of great lakes   
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Gaylord, MI,



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