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FXUS61 KBTV 042010 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 310 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

SYNOPSIS
Snow showers will continue this evening into the overnight as moisture wraps around low pressure departing to our east. As temperatures fall below freezing tonight, any standing water may freeze on untreated surfaces, resulting in black ice. Conditions will trend cooler, with intermittent periods of showers as we head into mid week. By week's end, temperatures will climb well above normal.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 310 PM EST Monday...Low pressure is currently pushing eastward across northern VT, while an upper shortwave is approaching the St Lawrence Valley. There's been something of a lull in precipitation this afternoon, as least over central/southern areas, but expect showers to redevelop as the upper trough rides along the international border this evening and overnight. Champlain Valley locations may briefly start out as rain, but overall expect precipitation to fall as snow as we lose daylight and temperatures start to cool. West/northwest flow will keep showers focused along the western slopes of the northern Adirondacks/Greens, though do anticipate most locations will see at least a passing shower or two.
Overall, expect additional accumulations of up to 2 inches, with locally higher amounts possible above 1500 ft. Temperatures will drop into the 20s areawide as cold air advection sets up behind the departing low, so any standing water could freeze, turning into black ice. The main concern would be on elevated surfaces such as bridges and overpasses, along with any untreated roads.

Cold but fairly quiet weather is expected for Tuesday and Tuesday night as we'll mostly remain between larger-scale systems. A few snow showers may linger over the northern mountains Tuesday morning, but little accumulation is expected. An upper trough will approach from the west Tuesday night, but the best forcing and moisture will remain to our south, so we should remain dry. Highs on Tuesday will be in the mid 20s to mid 30s, then trending colder for Tuesday night. Lows are expected to range from 10 to 20F, perhaps a bit warmer in the southern Champlain/low Connecticut River Valleys.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 310 PM EST Monday...No significant changes made to the previous forecast for the middle to end of the work week as generally quiet and non-impactful weather is expected. The base of an upper trough will swing through the region on Wednesday, but with the best dynamics and deepest moisture well south of the forecast area, we shouldn't see anything more than perhaps a few mountain flurries. An upper level ridge follows for Thursday and Friday with just a slight chance for snow showers across western New York Thursday as a shortwave passes on the leading edge of the ridge. It will be running into a dry air mass, so again, not expecting much of anything. The ridge builds in firmly for Friday with no precip expected then. Temps will remain seasonably cool through Thursday with highs in the mid 20s to low 30s, and lows in the single digits to teens Wednesday night, and teens to upper 20s east to west Thursday night. A warming trend begins Friday with highs bumping into the mid 30s to low 40s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 310 PM EST Monday...Heading into the weekend the focus of the forecast turns to the potential for a very dynamic system to affect the region. The major global models are in good general agreement in overall synoptic pattern, but the GFS is much faster with the evolution and track of the system, while the GDPS and ECMWF are more in step with each other. This is a swap from the 00Z runs where the GFS and GDPS were more in line, so this forecast favors the GDPS solution as a good middle of the road approach. The details feature a broad upper trough over the central CONUS Saturday deepening Saturday night and closing off by Sunday morning over the southern Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a sub 990mb low develops by midday Sunday and lifts northeast into the Great Lakes Sunday evening, and eventually to east of James Bay by Monday morning.
Strong warm air advection ahead of the system looks to usher in well above normal temperatures and dewpoints, both potentially rising into the 50s on Sunday. This combined with a strong 850mb jet in excess of 60kts ahead of the attending cold front passage, and progged QPF in the 1- 2" range signal a threat for significant snow melt and potential minor flooding across the region late Sunday night into Monday. Early ensemble river forecasts indicate this potential as well, with median percentiles approaching minor flood for several rivers across Vermont. Of course, this is all 6-7 days out, and the forecast will likely change, but multiple back to back runs of the global models are increasing our confidence of this occurring, with timing and QPF the biggest question right now.
Certainly stay tuned through the remainder of the week as we monitor this situation.

AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 18Z Tuesday...A mix of flight categories across the region, with scattered rain and snow showers. Lowest conditions have been at KEFK and KSLK in snow, and this will be the trend through 22z Mon. Otherwise, generally MVFR/VFR at other terminals. However, expect ceilings to lower from north to south after 22z Mon, with showers becoming a bit more persistent. All sites will see MVFR ceilings, and MVFR/IFR visibilities are possible at KSLK/KMSS/KEFK/KMPV in snow. Not enough confidence in lowered visibilities to include at the other TAF sites at this time. Snow showers will start to taper to an end after 08z, but MVFR ceilings to persist through the remainder of the TAF period. Winds will be light and variable, favoring north/northwest through the next 24 hours.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Slight chance SHSN.
Thursday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHSN.
Friday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.

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