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LMZ366 Expires:202312111630;;275364 Fzus63 Kmkx 110855 Glflm
open lake forecast for lake michigan national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi 255 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
for waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on lake michigan.
waves are provided as a range of significant wave heights, which is the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave, along with the average height of the highest 10% of the waves which will occasionally be encountered.
Synopsis..
high pressure of 30.2 inches along the upper mississippi river valley this morning will slide southeast to the ohio river valley this afternoon, while strong low pressure tracks across far southern hudson bay through Tuesday. Thus light to modest northwest winds this morning will back to brisk southwest winds this afternoon and increasing further tonight. A gale warning has been issued for the north half of the lake tonight. The winds will veer to west northwest and remain brisk for Tuesday and Tuesday night but remain below gale force. Modest westerly winds are expected for Wednesday as high pressure sets up from northern illinois into the ohio river valley.

lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-111630- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 255 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
.gale warning in effect from this evening through late tonight...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 kt increasing to gales 35 to 40 kt, then becoming west gales to 35 kt late. Slight chance of snow showers overnight. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft building to 8 to 11 ft occasionally to 14 ft.
Tuesday..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Tuesday night..West winds to 30 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 15 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Wednesday night..West winds 10 to 20 kt becoming southwest to 30 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.
Thursday..Southwest winds to 30 kt increasing to gales to 35 kt. Waves 6 to 9 ft occasionally to 12 ft.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 kt becoming west. Waves 5 to 8 ft occasionally to 10 ft subsiding to 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 111111 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 511 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Extensive cloud cover to persist through the end of the day, but temps will remain relatively mild for this time in the with highs ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s.

- Becoming windy late tonight into Tuesday with gusts in excess of 30 mph.

- Temperatures will remain close to normal to start the work week with a warm up expected for Thursday and Friday. Not much in the way of precipitation chances until the end of this week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 215 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight...and Tuesday

The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show cloud cover beneath the sharp subsidence inversion extending back to the eastern Dakotas early this morning. The back edge of this cloud mass has seemingly not moved much over the past 24 hours due to a shallow, cold airmass in place across the region. High pressure moving into the region has had no effect on cloud coverage so far early this morning. Looking upstream, a relatively potent clipper is moving southeast across northern Alberta and Saskatchewan.
Forecast concerns revolve around cloud trends followed by gusty winds tonight into Tuesday.

Today...High pressure will quickly shift to the eastern Great Lakes as the clipper system approaches the far northern Plains by the end of the afternoon. The shallow, cold airmass will gradually retreat to the north as low level winds back to the southwest.
This should lead to an erosion of the low stratus from southwest to northeast across the region through the day. However, continued to slow the clearing trend down so central and east-central WI may see partial clearing by the end of the afternoon. Due to the cloud cover, lowered temps compared to the NationalBlend by a couple degrees.

Tonight and Tuesday...The aforementioned shortwave will quickly spread across the northern Great Lakes tonight before lifting to the northeast on Tuesday. The tail of the shortwave will just clip the U.P. border and think precip chances will mainly pass north of Wisconsin. A few flurries or light snow showers could clip the border region. Think the bigger impacts will come with the strong gusty winds that will likely gust in excess of 30 mph late tonight into Tuesday. The winds will drop wind chills into the single digits and teens, which will feel colder thanks to the recent mild temps. Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower 20s to lower 30s across the region.

LONG TERM...Tuesday Night Through Sunday

A typical El Nino pattern is expected during the period, which means the arctic air will remain bottled up in Canada. The upper air pattern depicts a northwest flow behind a departing upper trough across eastern Canada during the middle of the week. The 500mb pattern will flatten along the Canada border while southern stream system moves into Texas by the end of the work week. The southern stream system will take its sweet time making it to the southeast United states by early next week.

Meanwhile, an upper level disturbance and associated weak frontal boundary will move into the area on Friday into Friday night.
There are significant differences in the timing and placement/strength of the upper level system. The ECMWF has a stronger upper level system with a more pronounced trough at 500mb across the western Great Lakes Friday night into Saturday compared to the GFS models.
This system will not have a lot of moisture to work with, thus current thinking is the QPF values off the ECMWF are a little high at the moment. The new ECMWF/Canadian model would also support extending rain chances into Friday night if not Saturday. Not ready to jump on board as the GFS model is dry at the moment.

Also, blustery/windy conditions may be possible at times Thursday and then again next weekend.

Temperatures will be close to normal Wednesday, then well above normal temperatures are expected Thursday into the weekend. At this point, don't see any real significant snowstorms over the next 7 to 10 days.

AVIATION
for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 511 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2023

Moisture trapped below a temperature inversion will likely keep IFR/MVFR ceilings through at least the afternoon. With increasing southwest winds ahead of a clipper system, think parts of the area (central and east-central WI has the highest chances)
will see clearing take place. Confidence remains low regarding timing of the clearing.

A clipper type system will pass north of Wisconsin tonight and push a cold front across the region. Winds in the low levels will increase ahead of the front to create a relatively short period of low level wind shear tonight. Behind the front, winds will shift to the west-northwest and become gusty. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible.

If there is clearing, the cold front will likely bring MVFR ceilings back to the area west of an IMT to STE line after midnight.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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