Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pilgrim, MI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 310 PM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Short Term...Tonight and Tuesday

Sub-zero temperatures are expected across the region tonight, except right along Lake Michigan. Dropped low temperatures a few degrees from previous forecast as skies, mainly across central WI where mostly clear skies are expected to begin the overnight hour. Breezy westerly winds gusting around 20-25 mph will create wind chills of negative 15 to negative 25 degrees, coldest in central WI. A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect through 9AM Tuesday through parts of central and east-central WI. Temperatures will start to moderate during the day Tuesday with highs warming into the upper single digits across northern WI to the upper teens along the lakeshore.

In addition to the cold there are a few areas to watch for light snowfall this evening through Tuesday morning. First it a weak short- wave moving into northwest WI this afternoon that has been producing flurries in eastern MN this afternoon. Flurries may start to push into central WI, north of highway 29 around 6pm this evening.
Accumulation snow with this system will be limited as there is not much moisture to work with.

Light LES will also become possible across northern WI this evening and overnight as 850mb winds veer and become a favorable NNW direction. However, surface winds are slower to veer NNW which may limit the southward extend of accumulating LES in north-central WI.
Areas in Vilas Co. may see up to an 1" through Tuesday morning, while areas further south may only see a dusting. Will also need to monitor a meso-low that has developed over northern Lake Superior that some of the high-res models show diving south overnight and potential clipping northern Door County with a few tenths of snow.

Long Term...Tuesday Night Through Monday

Main issue is cold early on, then arrival of even colder air late Sunday. Light lake effect snow is possible late this week into the weekend. Otherwise, main chance of light snow or flurries occurs Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night as warmer air briefly returns to the region. Gusty winds will also be a factor as the warmer air moves back in.

Temperatures on Tuesday night and Wednesday: The center of an arctic high pressure system will slide from the northern Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Given position of the high, winds may not completely decouple, though low PWAT crossing area will lead to prime radiational cooling conditions. Will therefore side toward coldest guidance on Tuesday night, with cold spot Tomahawk around 10 below. Because winds will be light, wind chills will not be too different from the actual air temps. Cold Weather headlines are not anticipated.

Winds on Wednesday through Friday: Two clippers will be passing north of the area. The pressure gradient will tighten over our region late Wednesday into Wednesday night and again on Friday.
Forecast soundings show warm air aloft, but it will be mixed enough below 5000ft to support gusty winds. Strongest winds will be across the waters where gusts over 35 mph are expected, but gusts of 20-30 mph will also be possible on land at times.

Temperatures Next Weekend into early next week: Cold fronts will cross the region on Friday night into Saturday. The second of these fronts marks the leading edge of the bitterly cold arctic air and arrives by Sunday. Forecast temperatures continue to trend down Sunday and Monday. A bit early, but the upper level and sfc pressure pattern have similarities to other notable cold air outbreaks in the past (Dec. 1989 and Feb. 1994). Cold Weather headlines will eventually be needed, with main question being advisories or warnings. One aspect that could be an issue with this expected cold is fact that much of our area is still lacking much snow to insulate against such cold.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1136 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Other than areas of lake induced clouds over far northern WI and the Door Peninsula skies have cleared out this morning. Skies will remain clear through the early afternoon before starting to fill back in from west to east as an area of mid-level clouds currently over NE MN advects into central and north-central WI. This area of clouds may produce scattered flurries or light snow this evening, but don't expect vsbys to remain VFR.

As low-level winds veer to the northwest tonight low-level stratus off Lake Superior will start to push southward likely returning MVFR conditions to northern WI. Periods of LES will be possible across north-central WI overnight into Tuesday which may impact vsbys at RHI. Otherwise the rest of the region may just see scattered flurries through much of Tuesday morning.

Westerly winds will remain breezy through the TAF period with peak wind gusts of 25-30kts.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Cold Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CST Tuesday for WIZ018- 030-031-035>038-045-048-049.