Saturday, February29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Pilgrim, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:26AMSunset 5:39PM Saturday February 29, 2020 7:13 AM CST (13:13 UTC) Moonrise 10:18AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 34% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ366 Expires:202002291615;;262809 Fzus63 Kmkx 290821 Glflm Open Lake Forecast For Lake Michigan National Weather Service Milwaukee/sullivan Wi 221 Am Cst Sat Feb 29 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan. Waves Are Provided As A Range Of Significant Wave Heights, Which Is The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave, Along With The Average Height Of The Highest 10% Of The Waves Which Will Occasionally Be Encountered.
Synopsis.. A surface ridge around 30.2 inches over western wi will move east across lake mi early this afternoon. The high will then shift towards the eastern great lakes during the afternoon and early evening. Modest southwest winds will then develop later today through Sunday in the wake of the high. A weak cold front will then veer the winds to the west for Sunday night into Monday, but not brisk. High pressure around 29.9 inches will then move across lake mi Monday night. && lmz261-362-364-366-563-565-567-868-291615- lake michigan from seul choix point to rock island passage 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan south of a line from seul choix point to the mackinac bridge and north of a line from charlevoix mi to south fox island 5 nm offshore- lake michigan from charlevoix to point betsie mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from point betsie to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from rock island passage to sturgeon bay wi- lake michigan from sturgeon bay to two rivers wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from two rivers to sheboygan wi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- lake michigan from pentwater to manistee mi 5 nm offshore to mid lake- 221 am cst Sat feb 29 2020 sheboygan wi to pentwater mi north...
Today..Northwest winds 10 to 20 kt backing to southwest 10 to 15 kt. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming south. Waves 3 to 5 ft.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 25 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 4 to 7 ft occasionally to 9 ft.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 10 to 20 kt becoming west. Waves 4 to 6 ft occasionally to 8 ft subsiding to 2 to 4 ft.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 kt becoming west. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
Monday night..West winds 5 to 10 kt becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 15 kt becoming southwest 10 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 4 ft.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 20 kt. Waves 1 to 3 ft.
LMZ366


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pilgrim, MI
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location: 44.69, -86.75     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 291146 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 546 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Sunday Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Slightly warmer temperatures are expected today as surface high pressure moves off to the east and winds become southwest. With mostly sunny skies and modest winds the weather should be ideal for most winter sports. High temperatures should be close to normal for this time of the year.

Middle and high clouds will increase tonight as a weak front approaches from Minnesota. Low temperatures may be during the late evening hours in the west part of the forecast area.

The weak front will move across the region Sunday. Some of the models suggest there could be a little light rain or drizzle, but the moisture does not appear to be sufficient for any precipitation. Highs will be ten degrees or more above normal, even with cloud cover.

LONG TERM. Sunday Night Through Friday Issued at 314 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Long term period still looking quiet with no major systems impacting the area. Only forecast concerns will be pinpointing low chances for (mainly light) precip in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Temps will remain above normal through the period with the cold/arctic air trapped well north of the region. A slow snow melt is expected through the period, but minor river flooding and ice jamming will be possible.

Sunday night through Monday night . high pressure will build into the western Great Lakes, bringing dry and quiet weather conditions. The cold front will complete its passage of the area Sunday evening. Other than a wind shift to the west/northwest, not expecting much fanfare with the front as moisture is limited and upper support is lacking/north of the area. Brief period of cold air advection behind the front will bring slightly cooler temps to the area on Monday, but temps should remain slightly above normal. Mostly clear skies and light winds will make for a chilly Monday night as the high moves overhead. Might need to lower low temps in later forecasts, especially in the typical cold spots, if skies sufficiently clear and winds go calm. If this occurs, snowmelt could add enough low level moisture for some fog development.

Tuesday into Wednesday . mid-level shortwave and cold front will swing across the area on Tuesday, bringing chances for precip to the area. Models have trended stronger with this feature, so increased POPs slightly, especially across northern WI. Limited moisture will keep precip on the light side, but potent nature of the trough/shortwave should bring at least some snow shower activity with it. Highest chances to see any snow accumulation looks to be across northern WI. Additional weak pieces of shortwave energy will cross the area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but pinning these down will be difficult and any precip looks to be on the light side, so will only go with some slight chances POPs for now.

Rest of the extended . another potent shortwave is forecast to dig across the western Great Lakes on Thursday, with a surface low and cold front swinging across the area as well. GFS is the weaker/ faster outlier with this system and will lean toward the ECMWF and Canadian and introduce chance POPs for most of the area. While the true Gulf moisture will stay southeast of the region, this system could have a ribbon of higher moisture to work with. Once this system exits to the east, high pressure will spread from the Plains into the Great Lakes for the end of the week.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Feb 29 2020

Favorable flying weather is expected today through the evening, with clear skies and light to moderate surface winds. MVFR ceilings may arrive late tonight in northcentral Wisconsin and across the remainder of the area Sunday morning. Low level wind shear is possible after midnight tonight with light south winds at the surface and southwest winds at 40 knots around 2000 ft agl.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . RDM LONG TERM . Bersch AVIATION . RDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 37 mi33 min NW 13 G 18 24°F 1018.6 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 42 mi55 min WNW 7 G 8.9 12°F 1018.8 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 43 mi33 min W 5.1 G 8.9 14°F 1018.3 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 46 mi93 min NW 19 G 22 24°F 1018.6 hPa

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI29 mi77 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy23°F12°F63%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW18
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2 days agoNE4N8N8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.