Sunrise 6:37 AM   Sunset 8:36 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM   Moonset 6:08 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 331 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2024
Today - South wind 5 to 10 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less, then becoming north 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Tonight - East wind 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Southeast wind 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 250805 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 405 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2024

KEY MESSAGES

--Chilly tonight; record lows possible...

--Quiet and dry Thursday.

--Potential for rounds of showers and thunder present from Friday night through Monday.

--Non-zero chance for severe thunderstorms, particularly later Saturday into Saturday night.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Pattern Synopsis:

Troughing continues to pivot from the northeast CONUS over the Atlantic today as longwave ridging slides eastward over the Mississippi Valley/Great Lakes. Subsidence aloft provided at the inflection point of these features will keep building surface high pressure currently centered overhead gradually eastward today into tonight. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough looks to eject over the southern Great Plains later this evening and tonight, providing ample divergence aloft to support lee cyclogenesis over western Kansas/Nebraska.

Forecast Details:

Quiet weather continues today and tonight -- Cold temperatures this morning will quickly warm up after sunrise with cloud-free skies in store through today and tonight. Highs across the area look to climb into the low to mid 50s for most of northern Michigan, aside from those against the lakeshores that may stay in the upper 40s.
Light/calm winds are also anticipated today with lake breezes pushing inland this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds look to gradually strengthen beginning late tonight into Friday morning with overnight lows dipping back into the upper 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pattern Synopsis and Forecast:

Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the central CONUS will breifly bring a warmer air mass with surface high pressure to the Great Lakes region this Friday. Midlevel shortwave troughing currently over the Pacific near southern California will progress across the country and return a more active weather pattern at the start of the weekend.

Aforementioned troughing will be centered over the Central Plains at the start of the forecast period. The trough and surface based low pressure will slowly move across the midwest this weekend into early next week, while simultaneously weakening, delivering rounds of thunderstorms and showers through Monday before a more zonal flow pattern takes over by next Tuesday.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Dry conditions continue this Friday before showers and thunderstorms move in late: Friday starts off dry. High pressure continues to deliver one more day of pleasant weather before a weakening cold front delivers precipitation to parts of the CWA as soon as Friday night. Rainfall will need to saturate the environment from a top down method, so overcoming dry air can delay measurable precipitation until the 12Z timeframe.
Aforementioned low pressure will be weakening as it moves across the Upper Midwest, keeping rainfall pretty low, but CAPE values in the 1500-1800 range and SRH values approaching the 300s will keep the potential of severe weather Saturday afternoon/evening a real possibility. SPC has upgraded the northern lower penisula to a slight risk of severe weather and WPC keeps Michigan under no risk of excessive rainfall, but a general quarter to half inch can be expected through Saturday.

Precipitation will continues at times through the weekend into Monday: Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms will persist this weekend as the first trough diminishes and is quickly replaced by another. Showers and storms will continue across the Great Lakes region through Monday. Quiet weather will settle into the region for the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe as a more zonal flow pattern over the CONUS returns surface high pressure to the CWA for the end of April.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Still no aviation concerns with prevailing VFR conditions through the day Thursday. Weak pressure gradient with high pressure to the east will allow for local winds to be dictated by lake breeze developing during the diurnal heating cycle.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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