Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 9:00 PM Moonrise 1:10 PM   Moonset 2:25 AM

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LMZ323 Grand Traverse Bay South Of A Line Grand Traverse Light To Norwood Mi- 957 Pm Edt Thu May 16 2024
Overnight - Light winds. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through the night. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday night - Light winds. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
winds and waves higher in the vicinity of Thunderstorms.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 170209 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1009 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances tonight and Friday

- Well above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday

- Rain chances increase early next week

- Cooler weather for the second half of next week

UPDATE
Issued at 1009 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Upstream occluded/cold front is slowly making its way into Michigan late this evening...generating an area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms ahead of it. This precip is currently impacting Eastern Upper and far Northern Lower Michigan...with some additional spotty convection developing along its southern flank over Northern Lake Michigan. This front will slow push thru our CWA overnight into Friday...continuing to generating scattered to numerous showers with a few embedded non-severe thunderstorms. Wind fields will remain weak and instability limited...thus the expectation of sub-severe storm activity.
Cloud cover combined with ongoing weak WAA ahead of the front will keep temps relatively mild overnight...with low temps expected to only drop into the low to mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Pattern/synopsis: An initial shortwave trof will pivot across northern parts of the forecast area this evening. A trailing, somewhat more amplified wave will follow a similar track Fri morning. At the surface, a 1004mb surface low near DLH will weaken. The associated front will enter the forecast area overnight, then stall out over eastern sections late Friday.

Forecast: Precip coverage is reasonably impressive just upstream, over far ne WI and central upper MI, including some embedded thunder over Door Co. But our airmass over here is drastically drier, with surface temps mid 60s to mid 70s, and dew points in the 40s and in some places 30s. Between that and the cold water of Lake MI, upstream convection will have a lot of work to. It will succeed, in spots, but only sct to low-end likely pops are in order. The highest pops tonight (by a little bit) will be in eastern sections, where the slowing nature of the entire system will allow more time to overcome the initial dry air. Meanwhile, pops will be decreasing west of I-75 toward dawn. A plume of MuCape values to 500j/kg are progged to cross the area from w to e, so embedded thunder remains possible thru the night. But relatively meager instability and effective shear, and increasingly elevated nature of convection, will sharply limit any svr threat.

Min temps milder, upper 40s to mid 50s.

On Friday, leftover synoptic precip will only creep eastward over ne lower MI and Drummond Isl. But while drier air slowly filters into western areas, the east will see pooled moisture along the stalling front and with developing lake breezes. With the expected emergence of partial sunshine, even in the east, as the day proceeds, some instability develops in the east. MlCape values will again be near or slightly higher than 500j/kg.
Perhaps a stronger storm (still non-severe) will be possible, with 30-40kt 500mb winds. Of course, storms will tend to move over cooler/stable marine air as they attempt to organize and move eastward.

Max temps mid 60s eastern upper MI, to perhaps upper 70s near Gladwin.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
Issued at 321 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

The beginning of the long term shows split flow over North America, with an upper low over the Canadian prairies and another open wave moving through the Gulf Coast and southeastern CONUS. Several disturbances will rotate around the base of that Canadian upper low, with none of them having more than a glancing impact on northern Michigan until the first part of next week.

At the surface, northern Michigan will be under the influence of high pressure to our northeast, limiting rain chances despite warm advection. The result of all this is summerlike temperatures with only spotty rain chances for the weekend.
Highs on Saturday and Sunday will be well above normals for mid- May.

The flow pattern breaks down early next week as the Canadian upper low meanders far enough east for disturbances to meaningfully impact our area. Some discrepancies in medium range model timing remain, but the most likely event at this stage is for rain chances to increase on Monday, peaking Monday night through Tuesday night, then lingering at a lower chance after that through mid-week.

The clouds and rain will mean cooler temperatures as well, especially for the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will impact Northern Michigan tonight into Friday as a weak cold front slowly pushes thru our state. Prevailing VFR conditions will drop to MVFR/possibly IFR within any heaver showers/storms that develop.
Prevailing conditions will drop to MVFR later tonight into Friday morning as low level moisture continues to gradually increase. Surface winds will remain southerly AOB 10 kts tonight into Friday morning...shifting to the NW Friday afternoon in the wake of the cold front.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

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