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LMZ542 Sturgeon Bay To Two Rivers Wi-two Rivers To Sheboygan Wi- 1226 Pm Cst Thu Dec 7 2023
This afternoon..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft early in the morning.
Friday..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 ft. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts. A chance of light rain after midnight. Waves 2 to 4 ft subsiding to 1 to 3 ft after midnight.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 071722 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1122 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight...and Friday

Wisconsin will be located between high pressure over the southeast United States and a developing low pressure which will move into the Dakotas today. As south winds strengthen, a warm front will be lifting northeast across northern Wisconsin. Surface to 800mb dewpoint depressions remain quite large (5 to 10C) so no precip is expected with the warm front. But temps will be quite a bit warmer today under partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies with highs in the low to middle 40s.

Gulf moisture will surge into the region tonight, which will likely lead to a low stratus deck developing after midnight into Friday morning. Because of south winds and low stratus, raised low temps compared to the previous forecast.

Forecast soundings indicate that the low stratus will mix out with daytime heating by mid to late Friday morning, which should lead to plenty of sunshine, although mid and high clouds will increase some in the afternoon. Mixing heights remain low, perhaps up to 1500 ft above ground level, so warm temps aloft will struggle to mix to the surface. But breezy south winds should bring temps into the mid 40s to low 50s.

LONG TERM...Friday Night Through Wednesday

The primary weather concern will occur on Saturday when a fast- moving low pressure system will sweep up from the south and deliver wet, windy weather. Computer models vary considerably on the track of the low, which will play a big role in how much wintry precipitation falls and for what portion of our region.
From an areal perspective, if the ensemble track forecast holds true, substantial snowfall rates could be achieved in some areas, with perhaps 10 percent coverage of greater than 3 inches of snowfall in northern WI on Saturday. However, there is a wide range of possibilities with this dynamic system. Forecast confidence is at least moderately high with timing of the system occuring on Saturday. A secondary shortwave has potential to deliver an inch of snow to a large portion of our area on Sunday.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Other than a band of mid-clouds moving through the area early this afternoon, generally clear skies are expected this afternoon into this evening.

Models indicate that gulf moisture will return from south to north after midnight. Sufficiently strong winds in the boundary layer will likely result in this moisture manifesting as low stratus. Have cigs in the IFR/low-end MVFR range for late tonight, then in the MVFR range through Friday morning. There is still some uncertainty as to whether these low clouds will be able to mix out on Friday as a relatively strong low-level inversion would need to be broken.

Finally, winds are marginal for low-level wind shear after midnight across most of northeast Wisconsin. Have mentioned this potential for all TAF sites.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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