Friday, August7, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sobieski, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:45AMSunset 8:10PM Friday August 7, 2020 12:36 PM CDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 9:39AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:202008072215;;077419 Fzus53 Kgrb 071525 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 1025 Am Cdt Fri Aug 7 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-072215- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 1025 Am Cdt Fri Aug 7 2020
This afternoon..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Sunny.
Tonight..S wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves building to 1 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..S wind 15 to 20 kts veering sw 10 to 15 kts early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Saturday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly cloudy.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sobieski, WI
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location: 44.71, -87.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 071119 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 619 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Updated aviation portion for 12Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Today . Tonight . and Saturday Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

One more fairly quiet weather day across northeast Wisconsin before the chance of showers and storms arrives tonight into Saturday. Dangerous swimming conditions will likely develop along the Lake Michigan shoreline Saturday afternoon/evening.

Today: A surface ridge, centered over lower Michigan, will drift slowly eastward throughout the day. This will keep much of northeast Wisconsin under the western edge of the ridge, allowing steadily increasing low-level moisture on southerly winds. A subtle warm front is expected to lift northward across MN and northwest WI this afternoon into early this evening. This could touch off an isolated shower or two across central WI (small chance), while the rest of the area is expected to remain dry. Continued the dry forecast as confidence in any locations seeing measurable precipitation is very low. The southerly flow will allow dewpoint to continue to increase across the area, causing it to feel a bit more uncomfortable outside. This will be in combination with steadily increasing temperatures. Dewpoints will likely remain in the low to mid 60s, with the 70 degree dewpoint building into the northern Plains. High temperatures are expected to warm into the low to mid 80s for much of the area, cooler along the lakeshore.

Tonight: The surface ridge continues to slide eastward, allowing moist southerly flow to continue to stream northward into the area during this time period. Mid/upper-level ridging is expected to be in place through the evening; however, models continue to point toward a MCS developing across the northern Plains, then shifting eastward through the overnight hours along the periphery of the ridge. Models continue to have some issues resolving exactly where this feature will trek; however, a majority of the solutions take the MCS across northern MN and then into the U.P./Lake Superior late tonight into early Saturday morning, between 06Z and 12Z. Have increased the pops across the north during that time period with scattered to widespread showers and storms. Instability is not forecast to be overly impressive with the wave arriving late in the night, in fact, most models only paint out 300-600 J/kg across central into north-central WI. Shear is only forecast to be around 20 kts as the shortwave stays north of the area, which would tend to favor a slow diminishing trend and less organization as the showers and thunderstorms approach the area. SPC has NE WI in a general thunder risk with a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms as close as northwest WI. Any storms that do make it into central/north- central WI will have the potential to produce heavy downpours as PWAT values are progged to be between 1.5 and 2 inches. Otherwise, overnight lows are expected to be mainly in the 60s.

Saturday: The aforementioned shortwave is expected to continue to shift eastward throughout the day, which will allow for a steady diminishing trend in any shower and thunderstorms activity. The most widespread coverage will be early in the day with the shortwave being nearby or overhead during that time period. This would be between 12Z and 18Z, slowly diminishing from the south and west. Again, heavy downpours would be the main concern. During the afternoon hours, capping in place across at least the southern part of the area should allow for a break in the shower and thunderstorm activity. Again, not expecting severe weather as shear values are expected to remain around or below 20 kts throughout the day. MUCAPE does increase during the afternoon hours, but soundings suggest that a healthy cap would have to be overcome before pop up storm could occur. At this point, have kept isolated showers/storm in the forecast, but the next shift may be able to pull this if it looks like the inversion will be strong enough to keep convection from occurring. Temperatures may be slow to increase Saturday morning with additional cloud cover; however, breaks in the clouds during the afternoon should allow most locations to warm into the low to mid 80s with dewpoints increasing to the mid to upper 60s. It will definitely feel more muggy during the day Saturday! The southerly flow across Lake Michigan will also allow waves to build along the Lake Michigan shoreline and will lead to dangerous swimming conditions Saturday afternoon. A Beach Hazard Statement will likely be needed for that time period.

LONG TERM. Saturday Night Through Thursday Issued at 300 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Zonal flow at 500mb will continue through much of the period. High temperatures Sunday should run six to nine degrees above normal, otherwise the remainder of the forecast period should remain a few to several degrees above normal.

The first piece of energy at 500mb will be east of the area by 00z Sunday. A secondary upper level disturbance will move across northern Wisconsin Saturday night, bringing a small chance of showers and storms across the north. Sunday morning should start out dry, then the chances of showers and storms increase during the day. Sunday should be the warmest day during the period with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Dewpoints are expected to rise into the upper 60s to lower 70s at most places. Still some timing differences in when the front will move across the area, but it now appears late Sunday night into Monday morning which is usually the least favorable time of day for severe weather. However, 0-6 km shear values are 25 to 35 knots so totally could not rule out a few strong or severe storms Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold front should exit the area Monday with showers and storms coming to an end. Dry conditions are expected Monday night through Tuesday night. Low chances of storms on Wednesday into Thursday, but confidence is low since the latest ECMWF run has come in dry. Comfortable dewpoints on Tuesday, but then start to slowly creep up towards the end of the week. High temperatures Monday through Thursday should run into the upper 70s to middle 80s.

AVIATION. for 12Z TAF Issuance Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2020

VFR conditions are expected across much of northeast Wisconsin through late this evening as high pressure slowly drifts eastward. Some afternoon CU will likely become scattered across the area with bases around 5-8kft. Hi-Res models continue to show a thunderstorm complex moving into northern and central WI late tonight into Saturday morning. Have included VCTS at RHI/AUW/CWA around 09Z, but overall confidence continues to be low to medium in how quickly the showers/storms arrive and exact location that will be impacted. If these showers and storms make it to the eastern TAF sites, it would likely be just after the end of this TAF issuance.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Cooley LONG TERM . Eckberg AVIATION . Cooley


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45014 14 mi36 min SW 5.8 G 5.8 72°F 1019.7 hPa (-0.6)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 31 mi48 min S 12 G 14 70°F 1021.2 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 34 mi48 min SSE 8 G 11 70°F 72°F1020.7 hPa59°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 47 mi56 min ESE 4.1 G 8.9 73°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI18 mi43 minS 810.00 miFair78°F61°F56%1020.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRB

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Last 24hrS5SW3W56S12SE13SE8S5S4S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S6S8
1 day agoS5--W6SW64S4S6S5S6S6S5S4CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW5
2 days agoN9N11N8N5SE3CalmCalmSW4CalmCalmCalmCalmNW4CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm44

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.