Wednesday, January22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sobieski, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:48PM Wednesday January 22, 2020 1:26 AM CST (07:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:42AMMoonset 3:41PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:202001221130;;320544 Fzus53 Kgrb 220314 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 914 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-221130- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 914 Pm Cst Tue Jan 21 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday afternoon...
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts up to 30 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
Wednesday..SW wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts up to 30 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow in the morning, then light snow likely in the afternoon.
Wednesday night..SW wind 10 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Light rain and snow likely.
Thursday..S wind 5 to 10 kts backing se early in the afternoon. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light rain and snow.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sobieski, WI
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location: 44.71, -87.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 220426 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1026 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Wednesday Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

The main concern in the short-term portion of the forecast will be the potential for light snow, possibly mixed with freezing drizzle Wednesday.

Tonight: A broad surface ridge will linger across the area through much of the night as it slowly shifts to the east. This will keep much of the area dry; however, an increase in mid to high cloud cover can be expected overnight as return southerly flow increases. Overnight lows are expected to be in the teens above zero.

Wednesday: The next chance of precipitation will move into the area during the afternoon as the surface ridge begins to slide farther off to the east. This will allow moisture to advect northward along with warmer air. Added forcing will occur along and ahead of a surface trough sliding across MN and especially in the mid to late afternoon as upper-level energy passes through the area. Dry low- level air will linger across east-central and far northeast WI (farther away from the trough), which will likely delay the onset of precipitation chances until late morning or early afternoon. Models are only painting out between 0.10 and 0.15 inches of QPF, which would lead to roughly 1 to 2 inches across the area with snow-to- liquid ratios around or just above 10:1. The higher totals will likely remain across central/north-central WI, where better forcing is along the front before it stalls out. Thermal profiles suggest that most of the precipitation will be in the form of snow as seeder- feeder process will likely keep ice crystals in the moist layer. It is not completely out of the question for some light freezing drizzle to mix in at times, but the possibility looks fairly low at this point. High temperatures will be in the upper 20s to near 30.

LONG TERM. Wednesday Night Through Tuesday Issued at 236 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

The focus for the long term forecast will be the continuation of wintry weather through the early parts of the weekend. Drier conditions are expected to return for the second half of the extended.

Wednesday night through Friday, on and off snow showers are expected to be in the region, with periods of light, widespread snowfall. Wednesday night, snow will be the predominant weather type, but there may yet be a few spots for freezing drizzle across far north- central Wisconsin if mid level moisture does not return quickly enough. QPF has been increase a little overnight as well, which will bump up snow totals a few tenths going through Thursday, but no major increases are expected. By the afternoon, steady southerly flow and increasing temperatures will change weather types over to sleet or even rain, mainly near the Fox Valley. By Thursday night, as diurnal heating ends, snow will return as the predominant precipitation type.

Friday then brings similar conditions as Thursday as the low pressure system continues its slow journey westwards. Light precipitation that starts as snow, becomes a mix across east- central as surface temps warm, and changing back to snow overnight. Over the course of Saturday, as we get to the backside of the upper level trough, moisture will get cutoff, and a broad but low amplitude upper level ridge will build in over the region. This ridge is currently expected to hold in place through the remainder of the extended, allowing for the chance of a few flurries, but otherwise mostly dry conditions.

With the low amplitude flow aloft, no majorly different air masses are expected to move through the region. Thus, the above normal temperatures will stick around through the entirety of the extended period.

AVIATION. for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1023 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2020

LLWS remains the main aviation weather concern overnight as southwest winds increase above the surface. The stronger winds have occasionally been mixing to the surface, especially over the higher terrain of north-central Wisconsin. Scattered light precipitation will probably break out in north-central Wisconsin around daybreak, then slowly expand southeast during the day. Model forecast soundings suggest a mix of snow and light freezing rain/freezing drizzle at the onset. A little sleet is also possible. The mix should transition to primarily snow as temperatures drop back to wet-bulb readings and moisture deepens.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Cooley/Eckberg LONG TERM . Uhlmann AVIATION . Skowronski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 31 mi56 min 20°F 1021.4 hPa
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 34 mi56 min 20°F 35°F1020.1 hPa15°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI18 mi33 minS 13 G 2110.00 miFair20°F14°F78%1021.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRB

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN7N7N4NW5NW5NW4NW4NW6W6W7W7NW6W8W5SW4SW4SW4SW5W4SW3W6W4W3Calm
2 days agoW15W13W12NW14NW12NW10NW9NW9NW10NW10N18N15
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.