Monday, March1, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sobieski, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 5:41PM Monday March 1, 2021 6:49 PM CST (00:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:44PMMoonset 9:00AM Illumination 89% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ522 Expires:202101300615;;693694 Fzus53 Kgrb 292140 Nshgrb Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay Wi 340 Pm Cst Fri Jan 29 2021 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore On Lake Michigan Lmz521-522-300615- Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 340 Pm Cst Fri Jan 29 2021
Tonight..E wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries after midnight.
Saturday..E wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of flurries.
Saturday night..E wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow.
Sunday..NE wind 15 to 25 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of light snow. Wave height forecast is for ice free areas. This is the last issuance of the nearshore marine forecast for the bay of green bay for the season. The forecast for the bay will resume on or around april 1.
LMZ522


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sobieski, WI
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location: 44.71, -87.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 012325 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 525 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Tuesday Issued at 143 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

High pressure will drift south of the area tonight, with a weak shortwave tracking north of the area late tonight. Abundant radiational cooling is expected this evening with clear skies and light winds in place. The aforementioned shortwave could bring a swath of clouds across the north later tonight, which could help halt a complete free fall of temperatures across that area. In addition, an increased pressure gradient will cause winds to come up a bit later tonight as the high drifts south of the area. Temperatures are expected to mainly fall to around zero across north-central Wisconsin, with several locations across the far north likely falling into the single digits below zero. Further south, lows are expected to fall into the single digits above zero across central Wisconsin with lows of 10 to 15 degrees across east-central Wisconsin and the lakeshore.

A clipper system will pass to the north on Tuesday with the aforementioned high pressure system across the Ohio Valley. This will create a tight pressure gradient, allowing southwest winds to gust to 25 to 35 mph. Warm air advection will bring warmer temperatures to the region on Tuesday, with highs expected to rise into the upper 30s to lower 40s under mostly sunny skies.

LONG TERM. Tuesday Night Through Monday Issued at 143 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

Models continue to show a strong band of westerlies to run across the northern CONUS/southern Canada through mid-week before a southern stream system hits the CA coast and upper ridging develops over the central CONUS. This system to pass to our south and haven no impact on our weather. There are model timing issues with a northern stream system that is forecast to potentially bring a chance of precipitation Friday night or Saturday. The upper ridge does eventually reach the Great Lakes on Sunday with another weak system to possibly arrive on Monday. Temperatures to be above normal through the extended forecast.

Even though a weakening clipper system will pass to our north Tuesday night, a cold front is expected to drop south through WI. This front will have little moisture or upper support at its disposal, thus only an increase in clouds and a wind shift will mark the passage of the front. Min temperatures to be in the lower to middle 20s north, middle to upper 20s south. A mix of sun and clouds are expected on Wednesday as a modest mid-level shortwave moves through WI. The NAM continues to hint at some fog or freezing drizzle during the morning hours, while other models are dry. For now, have kept the forecast dry, but something to watch. Max temperatures on Wednesday to range from the lower to middle 30s north-central WI, lower to middle 40s west of the Fox Valley.

This surface high is forecast to stretch from western Ontario southward through WI, all the way to the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night through Thursday. Clear skies, light winds and relatively fresh new snow across the north could drop temperatures Wednesday night into the single digits above zero. Meanwhile, areas with little snow cover could see min temperatures hold in the lower 20s. Max temperatures on Thursday to range from the middle 30s north-central/near Lake MI, to the lower 40s west of the Fox Valley.

While quiet conditions will hold through Thursday night, models being to show some differences with regards to the movement of a closed upper low over southeast Canada by Friday. Initially, these differences will not impact northeast WI with the high pressure still in our vicinity. Under mostly sunny skies, look for max temperatures on Friday to range from the middle to upper 30s north/near Lake MI, to the lower 40s west of the Fox Valley.

Model issues become more apparent by Friday night as the ECMWF retrogrades the upper low in southeast Canada and sends colder air back into the Great Lakes. Conversely, the GFS does not retrograde the upper low and allows mild air to remain over WI. 8H temperatures by 12Z Saturday range from -5 to -10C (ECMWF) to -1 to -3C (GFS). The ECWMF is dry Friday night, while the GFS and CMC bring a weak system into the western Great Lakes by daybreak with a chance of light precipitation. Just too much disparity and uncertainty at this point, thus have followed the consensus solution which keeps the forecast dry for now. Max temperatures would also be impacted and have settled for readings in the middle to upper 30s north/near Lake MI, lower to middle 40s west of the Fox Valley.

Models are also having problems with the timing/strength of the upper ridge axis late this weekend. The GFS is faster/flatter, while the ECMWF is slower/sharper. At this juncture, models are dry for Saturday night into Sunday, but other features like temperatures and wind speed/direction would be impacted. For now, have gone with max temperatures on Sunday to range from the middle 30s to around 40 degrees near Lake MI, lower to middle 40s inland.

Uncertainty continues through Monday with the GFS showing a weak surface ridge over WI versus the ECMWF indicating a shortwave trough approaching WI. The vast timing/locations of systems from this weekend into Monday makes for a very low confidence forecast and susceptible to potential large changes to the forecast in the coming days.

AVIATION. for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 524 PM CST Mon Mar 1 2021

There could be some middle clouds across the far north tonight, but otherwise clear skies and good visibility are expected through Tuesday. Low level wind shear is possible between 12Z and 16Z Tuesday across northcentral Wisconsin with southwest winds around 40 knots at 2000 ft and lighter south winds at the surface.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Kurimski LONG TERM . Kallas AVIATION . RDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GBWW3 12 mi49 min W 4.1 G 7 24°F 1026.1 hPa (+1.6)
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 31 mi49 min NW 1.9 G 8 24°F 1026.1 hPa (+1.4)
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 34 mi49 min NW 6 G 8 22°F 35°F1026.4 hPa (+1.7)-0°F
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 47 mi69 min WNW 8.9 G 9.9 20°F

Wind History for Kewaunee MET, WI
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G6
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G17
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S11

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Green Bay, Austin Straubel International Airport, WI18 mi56 minW 610.00 miFair24°F6°F46%1028.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGRB

Wind History from GRB (wind in knots)
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----NW11
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1 day agoS6S5S7--CalmCalmCalmCalmN7NE7E4N5NE7NE9E4SE12SE5S9SW10
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2 days agoS11S9S10S9S10
G19
S7S6SW7SW4SW5SW4SW3SW5S6SW7S10S7SW10S8SW8S11S8S8S4

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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