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FXUS65 KBOI 111046 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 346 AM MST Mon Dec 11 2023

SHORT TERM
Today through Wednesday night...Light precipitation will continue through today as the region remains under westerly flow off the Pacific. The cold pool over northern Malheur county and the Weiser basin remains deep enough to support light snow or rain/snow mix down to the surface this morning. Surface temperatures in these areas remain just above freezing so little impact is expected from the snowfall.
Otherwise snow levels will hold between 3500-5500 feet.
Precipitation will remain light with liquid totals less than 0.20 inches and additional snowfall less than 2 inches through Tuesday morning. Showers will taper off from north to south tonight as drier air aloft pushes into region in advance of a low pressure that will mark an end to the current stretch of unsettled weather. This low will push through the region early Tuesday and is immediately followed by upper ridge. Widespread fog/stratus development is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday across valleys/basins of SE Oregon and SW Idaho as the upper ridge becomes established. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through Tuesday, and closer to normal Wednesday, especially at sites that see fog/stratus formation.

LONG TERM
Thursday through Monday...Models continue to agree on maintaining a ridge over the region at least through Sunday.
Warm air aloft and light winds will favor development of an inversion, and night and morning fog and low clouds are likely due to moisture remaining from precipitation early in the week.
Temperatures will average around 5 degrees above normal, but low cloud cover will restrict diurnal ranges, especially in areas where clouds persist through the day. Deterministic models have come into better agreement on increasing our chances of precipitation on Monday, as moisture increases ahead of a trough off the coast. However, model blends indicate that the inversion will persist, as mixing heights stay below 1000 feet.

AVIATION
Mountains obscured. MVFR and local IFR conditions will continue today, with widespread rain, snow, and low clouds. Snow levelS 4k-5k feet MSL. Conditions gradually improving after 12/00z. Surface winds: Mainly SE less than 10 kts. Winds aloft at 10k feet MSL: W-NW 10-20 kts.

AIR STAGNATION
High pressure aloft will build over the region on Tuesday and remain in place into next weekend. This will result in a prolonged period of stable conditions with light winds. Given recent precipitation, widespread fog and stratus is expected to form Tuesday night and persist across lower elevations. By Thursday model guidance is showing mixing heights below 2000 feet across all zones with no improvement through Sunday.


BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ID...None.
OR...None.

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