Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Baker City, OR

FXUS65 KBOI 142041 AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 241 PM MDT Tue Oct 14 2025

SHORT TERM
Tonight through Thursday night...An upper low centered along the central California coast will lift northeast tonight into Wednesday. Showers will move north into southwest Idaho and far southeast Oregon as the low approaches. Another band of showers, similar to but slightly more developed than this morning's precipitation, is expected to develop across southwest Idaho late tonight into Wednesday along a shortwave rotating around the low. This band may bring moderate precipitation totals up to 0.25 to 0.50 inch, with slightly higher totals possible in the mountains. The band is most likely to develop between Twin Falls and Boise, but some hi-res models bring it as far west as the Boise metro Wednesday morning.
Precipitation will become more showery in the afternoon and focused in the Magic Valley and central Idaho mountains, with a 10-20% chance of thunderstorms also developing. Snow levels will remain high through the event, generally 6500 to 8000 feet MSL, limiting accumulating snow to the highest peaks. It will remain cool and breezy as the low moves through.

Precipitation will end from west to east Wednesday night. A cool air mass in place will allow low temperatures to dip into the 30s in the lower valleys, resulting in potential for frost.
However, steady northwest winds overnight will limit this potential except in more sheltered areas. Cool and dry northwest flow on Thursday will bring mostly sunny skies, breezy afternoon winds (locally gusts to around 30 mph southeast of Boise), and slightly below normal temperatures.

LONG TERM
Friday through Tuesday...High pressure building in the North Pacific keeps general northwesterly flow across the region through early Sunday. This will keep temperatures seasonal, skies partly cloudy, and a slight chance of precip mostly north of our forecast area Friday evening. Models continue to be uncertain about a potential deep trough on Sunday, with not much change from the midnight shift's forecast. The GFS/EC deterministic and roughly half of ensemble members show a deep wet trough dig into the region Sunday evening. This would drop temps to 10 degrees below normal Monday and Tuesday and bring 40-60% chance of precip to most of the area. It would also drop snow levels to 4-5 kft MSL with a few inches of snow possible in Central Idaho ridges. However, the other half of GFS/EC ensemble members and the deterministic Canadian keep the trough very flat, which would still bring some moisture, but limit the precip amounts and potential temp drop off. The disagreement among models is still significant, but give the deterministic GFS and EC agreement I slightly favored the cooler and wetter forecast in this afternoon's package.
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