Altoona, WI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Altoona, WI

June 18, 2024 3:45 PM CDT (20:45 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:17 AM   Sunset 8:56 PM
Moonrise 4:55 PM   Moonset 1:40 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Altoona, WI
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 181944 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 244 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon and evening. Primary hazards are damaging winds and a chance for a few tornadoes. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible this afternoon into tonight.

- Additional rainfall of 0.50" to 1.00" through Wednesday morning.

- Pleasant stretch with temperatures in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday.

- Next chance for widespread rain arrives Friday into the weekend.



DISCUSSION
Issued at 232 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Today and Tonight... A busy stretch of weather is on tap for this afternoon and evening. Current observations highlight the tropical-like airmass in place. Temperatures are in the low to mid 80s with dewpoint temperatures in the low 70s. Southerly winds with gusts up to 40 mph will turn northwesterly and decrease overnight behind the frontal passage.

Our attention turns to this afternoon's severe weather set up. A potent sfc low over the eastern Dakotas will lift northeast into northern Minnesota this afternoon. A trailing cold front moves into western Minnesota by early afternoon and will be the focus point for convective initiation. Strong southerly low-level flow will result in continued moisture advection through the afternoon hours. Ahead of the cold front, we've seen moderate instability 2500-3500 J/kg build into central and southern Minnesota. Effective shear remains around 30 knots with nearly unidirectional shear aloft, limited by weak flow aloft. Initial storm mode will be multicell with a supercell or two possible but storms will quickly congeal into a linear storm mode given the unidirectional shear profile aloft. Our primary concern will be the potential of damaging wind gusts convection moves through central and southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin. KMPX VAD profile highlights impressive low level SRH values between 200-300 m2/s2 and along with decent speed shear in the lower levels. Given the enhanced low level wind shear, a few tornadoes will be possible this afternoon.
This matches up with the SPC SWO update added a 5% TOR area over our MN counties. Our 18z sounding highlights impressive moisture in the lower levels with PWAT of 1.91". The wind profile has some veering in the mid levels. Low level wind profile is impressive with nice curvature in the hodograph. Most importantly, the capping inversion has effectively eroded in the 18z ob. Initiation should when better upper level support arrives mid-afternoon, roughly 2-4PM, with a mixed convective mode before turning more linear. Storms impact the Twin Cities metro between 5 and 8pm. Heading into the evening hours, the front becomes more progressive and will shift the showers and storms into western Wisconsin with an overall diminishing trend by mid to late evening.

Wednesday and Thursday... A brief break in the active weather pattern on tap for Wednesday and Thursday. Both days will be dry & pleasant with highs in the low to mid-70s, partly sunny skies, and light winds. Rain chances return Thursday night into Friday ahead of our next system.

Friday through early next week...Southwest flow aloft will return and so will the moisture. This will support additional rain chances Friday and Saturday, with an additional 1-2" of rain likely for most locations, and 3"+ still possible where the strongest storms move through. Guidance hints at a slow moving system as it moves into the Upper Midwest on Friday. Placement of the surface boundaries will be important due to the potential for heavy rain. Any additional rain will contribute to additional rises in area rivers and streams for exacerbate flooding concerns into next weekend and early next week.
Temperatures appear to warm back up during this period with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Biggest change for this TAF set was to lower cigs after the FROPA this evening and keep them MVFR/IFR through much of the overnight. Did not mess with the timing of -TSRA much as it still looks to be on track. Winds will become southwesterly to northwesterly as the front passes. Most sites will hold on to MVFR/low end VFR through the end of the period.

KMSP...Based on hi-res models, added in some VCSH through early this afternoon. There looks to be some isolated convection ahead of the main line, which is still forecast to impact KMSP beginning around 23z. Cigs drop as mentioned above and have decided to keep them MVFR through tomorrow morning.
Southwesterly winds with gusts of 30-35kts will be possible from around 23z through 03z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KEAU CHIPPEWA VALLEY RGNL,WI 6 sm49 minS 16G2610 smMostly Cloudy88°F73°F62%29.73
KLUM MENOMONIE MUNISCORE FIELD,WI 22 sm30 minS 11G2010 smOvercast86°F73°F66%29.73
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