Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Altoona, WI
February 18, 2025 9:09 PM CST (03:09 UTC) Change Location
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Area Discussion for Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 190132 AFDMPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 732 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerous wind chills from -30 to -45 are likely Wednesday morning across central and western Minnesota. An Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect tonight until 10 AM Wednesday.
- A Cold Weather Advisory goes into effect tonight for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin until 10 AM Wednesday. Wind chills from -25 to -35 are likely.
- Warming trend later this week, with a chance at 40s this Sunday and Monday.
- No snow or active weather expected over the next 7 days.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
A potent Arctic airmass remains centered over the heart of the central US this afternoon. The core of an expansive 1050 mb high pressure is centered across Saskatchewan and expands outward over portions of the northern CONUS. The core of the Arctic air will slowly shift south into the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough digs in towards the Great Lakes region. Temperatures have warmed quickly into the single digits below zero across W MN to single digits above zero in E MN & W WI with mostly sunny skies across the area thanks to the sfc high pressure. For low temperatures over the next few nights - I used a blend of NBM 25th percentile with just a touch of 50th to warm us ever so slightly in the core metro & S MN.
Extreme Cold Warnings & Cold Weather Advisories go into effect tonight through 10AM Thursday morning to address the bitter cold temperatures & apparent Ts.
A gradual warming trend has begun as the "worst" of the cold is technically behind us. Highs will warm into the single digits above zero on Wednesday and into the teens Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows remain below zero Wednesday & Thursday night with values in the single digits below zero to teens below zero. We will monitor the potential for advisory-level cold for both Thursday morning & Friday morning despite this gradual warming trend. The core of our surface high will be centered to our south by that point. This placement allows southerly/southwesterly return flow to increase and contribute to a brief overlap between minimum low temperatures & winds that support colder Wind Chills. We'll keep our headlines as-is with the focus on tonight/Wednesday morning and allow the next shift to reassess.
The warm up shifts into high gear for the weekend into early next week. Our Arctic high shifts further to the SE, allowing WAA to really ramp up. This warm up can be viewed easier with the pattern aloft. The upstream ridge & blocking that has pushed the cold Arctic air out of the Arctic circle and into the mid-latitudes will break down. It'll get replaced by an impressive Pacific jet extension that'll replace the cold with a mild Pacific airmass. This should lead to highs in the upper 30s and low 40s with lows around freezing to just below freezing for next week through the following weekend.
Current ensembles highlight the "peak" warm up as next Monday with temps in the low to mid 40s but we can't rule out a few locations hitting 50 along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN. Any precipitation chances appear minimal over the next week as we remain in a primarily dry pattern regardless of Arctic cold or Pacific warmth.
Long range guidance does give us a few hints that temperatures will likely come back to climatological averages in early through mid March.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 639 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Winds will run NW in the 7-12kt range. Scattered high clouds around 20k feet will develop across the region overnight through the first half of Wednesday. Going into Wednesday afternoon, a swath of lower clouds will develop over eastern MN into western WI, such that ceilings in the 040-070 range are quite viable. Not expecting MVFR ceilings at this point but the possibility cannot be ruled out as time goes on.
KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago- Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan- Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Steele- Waseca-Washington.
WI...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-Polk.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Rusk- St. Croix.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 732 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- Dangerous wind chills from -30 to -45 are likely Wednesday morning across central and western Minnesota. An Extreme Cold Warning goes into effect tonight until 10 AM Wednesday.
- A Cold Weather Advisory goes into effect tonight for eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin until 10 AM Wednesday. Wind chills from -25 to -35 are likely.
- Warming trend later this week, with a chance at 40s this Sunday and Monday.
- No snow or active weather expected over the next 7 days.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
A potent Arctic airmass remains centered over the heart of the central US this afternoon. The core of an expansive 1050 mb high pressure is centered across Saskatchewan and expands outward over portions of the northern CONUS. The core of the Arctic air will slowly shift south into the Upper Midwest as an upper level trough digs in towards the Great Lakes region. Temperatures have warmed quickly into the single digits below zero across W MN to single digits above zero in E MN & W WI with mostly sunny skies across the area thanks to the sfc high pressure. For low temperatures over the next few nights - I used a blend of NBM 25th percentile with just a touch of 50th to warm us ever so slightly in the core metro & S MN.
Extreme Cold Warnings & Cold Weather Advisories go into effect tonight through 10AM Thursday morning to address the bitter cold temperatures & apparent Ts.
A gradual warming trend has begun as the "worst" of the cold is technically behind us. Highs will warm into the single digits above zero on Wednesday and into the teens Thursday afternoon. Overnight lows remain below zero Wednesday & Thursday night with values in the single digits below zero to teens below zero. We will monitor the potential for advisory-level cold for both Thursday morning & Friday morning despite this gradual warming trend. The core of our surface high will be centered to our south by that point. This placement allows southerly/southwesterly return flow to increase and contribute to a brief overlap between minimum low temperatures & winds that support colder Wind Chills. We'll keep our headlines as-is with the focus on tonight/Wednesday morning and allow the next shift to reassess.
The warm up shifts into high gear for the weekend into early next week. Our Arctic high shifts further to the SE, allowing WAA to really ramp up. This warm up can be viewed easier with the pattern aloft. The upstream ridge & blocking that has pushed the cold Arctic air out of the Arctic circle and into the mid-latitudes will break down. It'll get replaced by an impressive Pacific jet extension that'll replace the cold with a mild Pacific airmass. This should lead to highs in the upper 30s and low 40s with lows around freezing to just below freezing for next week through the following weekend.
Current ensembles highlight the "peak" warm up as next Monday with temps in the low to mid 40s but we can't rule out a few locations hitting 50 along the Buffalo Ridge in SW MN. Any precipitation chances appear minimal over the next week as we remain in a primarily dry pattern regardless of Arctic cold or Pacific warmth.
Long range guidance does give us a few hints that temperatures will likely come back to climatological averages in early through mid March.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 639 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
VFR conditions expected throughout this duration. Winds will run NW in the 7-12kt range. Scattered high clouds around 20k feet will develop across the region overnight through the first half of Wednesday. Going into Wednesday afternoon, a swath of lower clouds will develop over eastern MN into western WI, such that ceilings in the 040-070 range are quite viable. Not expecting MVFR ceilings at this point but the possibility cannot be ruled out as time goes on.
KMSP...No additional concerns at this time.
/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ THU...VFR. Wind NW 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SW 5-10kts.
MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Benton-Blue Earth-Brown-Chippewa-Chisago- Douglas-Isanti-Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Lac Qui Parle-McLeod- Meeker-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Nicollet-Pope-Redwood-Renville- Sherburne-Sibley-Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Watonwan- Wright-Yellow Medicine.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Anoka-Carver-Dakota-Faribault-Freeborn- Goodhue-Hennepin-Le Sueur-Martin-Ramsey-Rice-Scott-Steele- Waseca-Washington.
WI...Extreme Cold Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Barron-Polk.
Cold Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Wednesday for Chippewa-Dunn-Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Rusk- St. Croix.
Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KEAU
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KEAU
Wind History Graph: EAU
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes
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