Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little Sturgeon, WI
February 8, 2025 12:46 PM CST (18:46 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:59 AM Sunset 5:12 PM Moonrise 1:44 PM Moonset 5:45 AM |
LMZ522 Expires:202502070300;;386458 Fzus53 Kgrb 061633 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-070300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm cst this evening - .
This afternoon - W wind to around 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 45 kts. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight - W wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts to around 40 kts decreasing to 30 kts after midnight. Patchy blowing snow.
Friday - W wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
Friday night - W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
wave height forecast omitted for mostly ice covered areas.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-070300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
wave height forecast omitted for mostly ice covered areas.
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 081705 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
UPDATE
Issued at 910 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Snowfall reports just south of the current Winter Storm Warning are coming in at 4 to 5 inches across northern portions of Portage and Waupaca counties. Hi-res models and upstream radar observations show the probability for reaching at least 6 inches is high enough to extend the Winter Storm Warning another row of counties south to include Wood, Portage, Waupaca, and Outagamie counties. Total snowfall amounts are expected to vary greatly across this region, with totals closer to 4 inches in southern portions of these counties and 8 inches across the northern tier of these counties. The rest of the headlines will remain as is with this issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hazardous winter travel is expected today due to a widespread accumulating snowfall. A narrow band of 5-8+ inches of snow is expected near the Hwy 29 corridor, where a Winter Storm Warning was issued. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect elsewhere, but a sharp cutoff will occur over the south.
- Bitterly cold wind chills from 5 below to 20 below zero will be possible each morning from Sunday through Friday, with the coldest values over central and north-central Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 406 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Sunday
Main forecast focus will be the ongoing accumulating snow event today. Still monitoring for a narrow band of warning criteria snow.
Have been watching the initial FGEN band of snowfall work its way across much of the area during the early morning hours.
Initially, it took a good amount of time to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere as it slowly worked east, but once saturation occurred, we were able to get some decent snow rates up to 3/4 inch per hour within the snow band, with lighter rates behind it. 600-700mb FGEN forcing has been pretty steady, which has allowed the band of snow to extend back into west central MN, with the ARX radar showing the band nicely.
This forcing will slowly wane through the early morning hours, but forcing centered closer to 700-800mb will really strengthen through the morning hours, with a heavy FGEN band of snow expected to push across the Hwy 29 corridor. This will be aided by the synoptic forcing of the shortwave and LFQ of an upper jet. Models showing at least a 2-3 hour period of good overlap of FGEN/EPV and efficient dendritic growth, which will produce some moderate/heavy snow. HRRR showing near 1" an hour snowfall rates between 17-21z, especially over east central WI as the lift in the DGZ is maximized.
Using snow ratios between 15:1 to 18:1, this brings snow totals up to 6-8" (with a few higher totals possible if the band over- performs and we get higher ratios). Decided to go with a narrow Winter Storm Warning. Outside this band, snow rates will be lower and totals will mainly be in the 2-6" range, so will continue with the advisory elsewhere, but sharp cut offs are expected both near the heavier snow band, especially along the southern edge of the snowfall axis, with some spots likely not seeing an inch of snow (especially south of Hwy 10) when it is all set and done.
CAMs are still showing some hints of lake effect/enhancement over Lake Michigan with delta Ts in the low teens, but with light/variable 1000-850mb flow, think any band(s) would mainly stay offshore, and only possibly impacting locations right near Lake Michigan for a brief time late this morning and afternoon.
Wind will not play much of a role with this system, staying mainly less than 15 mph. Continued with the quicker end to the snow, with the snow ending by mid to late afternoon for much of central WI. Have adjusted some of the end times of the advisories/warnings. If the faster models are correct, an even earlier ending to the headlines may be warranted.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday
Main highlights from this forecast period revolve around light snow chances and colder air surging into the area, bringing cold overnight wind chills.
Light Snow Chances...A moisture starved cold front will surge southeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley region Monday night into Tuesday morning. With moisture in limited supply, snowfall amounts would be minimal (dusting to a couple tenths of an inch).
Late Wednesday into Thursday appears to be the next chance for snow as the northwest precip swath from a system moving across the Ohio River Valley region expands over the forecast area. The precip swath has trended further north and west towards/over the region, leading to higher probabilities for at least 1" or more of snow from 10-20% in the southeastern corner of the forecast area to 35-45% in the same area. Will continue to monitor as details become clearer over the coming days.
Temperatures/Wind Chills...Arctic air will spread and prevail across the forecast area from Sunday night through Wednesday. The cold air trailing the previously mentioned cold front will be one of the driving factors for the colder temperatures. Monday night's lows will range from around 10 below zero in central and north-central WI to the single digits above zero in far eastern WI. Although strong winds will not accompany the cold front, the combination of temperatures this cold and the prevailing light northwest winds may result in wind chills of -10 to near -25 by Tuesday morning. The coldest wind chills will be across central and north-central WI, where values may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be even colder ranging from around 0 to -10 in east-central and far northeast WI, to -10 to -20 in central and north-central WI. With high pressure overhead, winds will be minimal (if not calm) for the night, lowering the concern for dangerous wind chills. However, this could lead to the typical cold spots tanking to even colder values.
The cold air sticks around for Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows in the single digits above and below zero, leading to wind chills of -5 to -15 by Thursday morning with minimal winds.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Poor flying conditions are expected across most of the region this afternoon as snow moves across the region. A period of moderate to briefly heavy is expected this afternoon across all TAF sites for a period of time, with the longest period across central to east- central Wisconsin (roughly from AUW to GRB). Expect mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, with LIFR conditions in the heaviest snow.
The snow will exit from west to east during the afternoon and early evening hours, with improving conditions into tonight.
Winds will generally stay below 10 kts, mainly from the northeast today, then shifting to the northwest late this afternoon and evening.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ005- 010.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ011>013-021-073.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ018>020- 030-035-036.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for WIZ022-031- 037>040-074.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for WIZ045- 048>050.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance
UPDATE
Issued at 910 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Snowfall reports just south of the current Winter Storm Warning are coming in at 4 to 5 inches across northern portions of Portage and Waupaca counties. Hi-res models and upstream radar observations show the probability for reaching at least 6 inches is high enough to extend the Winter Storm Warning another row of counties south to include Wood, Portage, Waupaca, and Outagamie counties. Total snowfall amounts are expected to vary greatly across this region, with totals closer to 4 inches in southern portions of these counties and 8 inches across the northern tier of these counties. The rest of the headlines will remain as is with this issuance.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hazardous winter travel is expected today due to a widespread accumulating snowfall. A narrow band of 5-8+ inches of snow is expected near the Hwy 29 corridor, where a Winter Storm Warning was issued. Winter Weather Advisories remain in effect elsewhere, but a sharp cutoff will occur over the south.
- Bitterly cold wind chills from 5 below to 20 below zero will be possible each morning from Sunday through Friday, with the coldest values over central and north-central Wisconsin.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 406 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Sunday
Main forecast focus will be the ongoing accumulating snow event today. Still monitoring for a narrow band of warning criteria snow.
Have been watching the initial FGEN band of snowfall work its way across much of the area during the early morning hours.
Initially, it took a good amount of time to saturate the lower levels of the atmosphere as it slowly worked east, but once saturation occurred, we were able to get some decent snow rates up to 3/4 inch per hour within the snow band, with lighter rates behind it. 600-700mb FGEN forcing has been pretty steady, which has allowed the band of snow to extend back into west central MN, with the ARX radar showing the band nicely.
This forcing will slowly wane through the early morning hours, but forcing centered closer to 700-800mb will really strengthen through the morning hours, with a heavy FGEN band of snow expected to push across the Hwy 29 corridor. This will be aided by the synoptic forcing of the shortwave and LFQ of an upper jet. Models showing at least a 2-3 hour period of good overlap of FGEN/EPV and efficient dendritic growth, which will produce some moderate/heavy snow. HRRR showing near 1" an hour snowfall rates between 17-21z, especially over east central WI as the lift in the DGZ is maximized.
Using snow ratios between 15:1 to 18:1, this brings snow totals up to 6-8" (with a few higher totals possible if the band over- performs and we get higher ratios). Decided to go with a narrow Winter Storm Warning. Outside this band, snow rates will be lower and totals will mainly be in the 2-6" range, so will continue with the advisory elsewhere, but sharp cut offs are expected both near the heavier snow band, especially along the southern edge of the snowfall axis, with some spots likely not seeing an inch of snow (especially south of Hwy 10) when it is all set and done.
CAMs are still showing some hints of lake effect/enhancement over Lake Michigan with delta Ts in the low teens, but with light/variable 1000-850mb flow, think any band(s) would mainly stay offshore, and only possibly impacting locations right near Lake Michigan for a brief time late this morning and afternoon.
Wind will not play much of a role with this system, staying mainly less than 15 mph. Continued with the quicker end to the snow, with the snow ending by mid to late afternoon for much of central WI. Have adjusted some of the end times of the advisories/warnings. If the faster models are correct, an even earlier ending to the headlines may be warranted.
Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday
Main highlights from this forecast period revolve around light snow chances and colder air surging into the area, bringing cold overnight wind chills.
Light Snow Chances...A moisture starved cold front will surge southeast across the Upper Mississippi Valley region Monday night into Tuesday morning. With moisture in limited supply, snowfall amounts would be minimal (dusting to a couple tenths of an inch).
Late Wednesday into Thursday appears to be the next chance for snow as the northwest precip swath from a system moving across the Ohio River Valley region expands over the forecast area. The precip swath has trended further north and west towards/over the region, leading to higher probabilities for at least 1" or more of snow from 10-20% in the southeastern corner of the forecast area to 35-45% in the same area. Will continue to monitor as details become clearer over the coming days.
Temperatures/Wind Chills...Arctic air will spread and prevail across the forecast area from Sunday night through Wednesday. The cold air trailing the previously mentioned cold front will be one of the driving factors for the colder temperatures. Monday night's lows will range from around 10 below zero in central and north-central WI to the single digits above zero in far eastern WI. Although strong winds will not accompany the cold front, the combination of temperatures this cold and the prevailing light northwest winds may result in wind chills of -10 to near -25 by Tuesday morning. The coldest wind chills will be across central and north-central WI, where values may flirt with Cold Weather Advisory criteria.
Overnight lows Tuesday night into Wednesday morning will be even colder ranging from around 0 to -10 in east-central and far northeast WI, to -10 to -20 in central and north-central WI. With high pressure overhead, winds will be minimal (if not calm) for the night, lowering the concern for dangerous wind chills. However, this could lead to the typical cold spots tanking to even colder values.
The cold air sticks around for Wednesday night into Thursday morning with lows in the single digits above and below zero, leading to wind chills of -5 to -15 by Thursday morning with minimal winds.
AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1105 AM CST Sat Feb 8 2025
Poor flying conditions are expected across most of the region this afternoon as snow moves across the region. A period of moderate to briefly heavy is expected this afternoon across all TAF sites for a period of time, with the longest period across central to east- central Wisconsin (roughly from AUW to GRB). Expect mainly MVFR/IFR conditions, with LIFR conditions in the heaviest snow.
The snow will exit from west to east during the afternoon and early evening hours, with improving conditions into tonight.
Winds will generally stay below 10 kts, mainly from the northeast today, then shifting to the northwest late this afternoon and evening.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for WIZ005- 010.
Winter Weather Advisory until midnight CST tonight for WIZ011>013-021-073.
Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for WIZ018>020- 030-035-036.
Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for WIZ022-031- 037>040-074.
Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM CST this evening for WIZ045- 048>050.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 21 mi | 46 min | N 5.1G | 21°F | 34°F | 30.01 | 20°F | |
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 24 mi | 46 min | NE 12G | 28°F | 29.98 | |||
GBWW3 | 27 mi | 46 min | NNE 8.9G | 20°F | 29.99 | |||
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 31 mi | 66 min | N 4.1G | 22°F | ||||
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI | 48 mi | 106 min | NNW 2.9G | 23°F | 30.10 |
Wind History for Menominee, MI
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