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LMZ522 Expires:202312111400;;269489 Fzus53 Kgrb 110639 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1238 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-111400- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1238 am cst Mon dec 11 2023
Overnight..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Today..W wind 5 to 10 kts backing sw 10 to 20 kts in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..SW wind 15 to 25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 ft building to 3 to 5 ft in the late evening and overnight. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Tuesday..W wind 10 to 20 kts with gusts to around 25 kts. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 110446 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1046 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

UPDATE
Issued at 1005 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Raised the low temperatures for tonight as cloud cover is slow to clear due to moisture trapped below a temperature inversion. There will probably be some clearing late tonight where there is some downsloping with a northwest wind, but skies will probably remain cloudy elsewhere until Monday morning.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 206 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

SHORT TERM...Tonight and Monday

A relatively quiet period lies in store from this afternoon through Monday, as upper ridging slides into the area. So far today, persistent low cloud cover has kept temperatures in the area relatively cool, with most not reaching the low 30s.

Cloud trends will be the main thing to watch going into the overnight hours, as cloud cover overnight will largely dictate the overnight low temperatures. Thus far, many models still suggest clearing skies across the area, but low clouds have not budged since this morning despite the large- scale subsidence. There are some hints that clearing may start in the north overnight as winds subside and lake enhanced clouds diminish. Between the cooler start this afternoon, potential clearing, fresh snow pack, and light winds, kept the much colder temperatures in place across the region. If clearing occurs early enough, the cold spots will likely end up in the well into the single digits before sunrise.

Monday, quiet conditions continue under high pressure. Expect clear skies with plenty of sunshine and relatively mild near- normal temperatures for December, with highs in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday Night Through Sunday Mostly dry conditions are expected for majority of the extended period with the next chance for precipitation forecast to arrive at the end of this work week. Temperatures will trend seasonal to begin the week with a warm up coming Thursday and Friday.

Monday through Thursday...High pressure will dominate the area through the early and middle parts of the upcoming work week. Far northern WI may get some stray areas of light snow as a clipper system moves through Ontario Monday night into Tuesday, however, the GFS and ECMWF have consistently keep the vast majority of the snow with this system well north of the area. SW winds are expected to become breezy Tuesday morning and afternoon due to a tightening pressure gradient as the aforementioned clipper system moves toward eastern Canada and high pressure pushes up into the western Great Lakes region. Additionally, mixing to around 900mb could bring some gusts of 30-35 mph to the surface Tuesday afternoon and evening. A second period of gusty SW winds is forecast for Thursday as the pressure gradient again tightens over WI. With the steady SW winds Thursday temperatures may warm into the 40s for most areas which is 10-15 degrees above climatology.

Friday through the end of the extended period...While there is uncertainty about the timing it looks like a cold front will sweep through WI sometime Friday. There will be a chance for some rain with this frontal passage, but the suite of global ensemble models (EPS, GEFS, and CMCE) currently has QPF under 0.10" so a washout is unlikely. There is more uncertainty about a potential system moving through the area Saturday. The most recent ECMWF has a shortwave associated with the southern steam of a split flow regime passing through during the day Saturday, however, this feature has not shown up in the GFS which is indicating another round of high pressure building in for the weekend.

AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1045 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Moisture trapped below a temperature inversion will likely keep MVFR ceilings across the region overnight. There should be some breaks in the clouds across the far northeast part of the state late tonight.

There is uncertainty about whether clouds will clear Monday. The sun angle is low at this time of year and days are short. It is possible that the clouds could remain trapped below a strengthening temperature inversion Monday, but confidence is low. If there is clearing, an upper level trough could bring MVFR ceilings back to the area west of an IMT to STE line Monday night, along with scattered snow flurries.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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