Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Empire, MI

UPDATE
Issued at 916 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Light lake effect snow showers expected to continue overnight, with even the most persistent snows likely resulting in additional accumulations of an inch or less. Temperatures will continue to trend downward, with developing breaks in the overcast only helping the temperature free-fall. Looking for lows in the single digits above/below zero...although wouldn't be terribly surprised to see those areas that aggressively clear fall several degrees colder.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Current Overview / Pattern Synopsis:

Current satellite imagery shows another day of lake induced convection bubbling across the region. Lesser moisture aloft has somewhat suppressed the intensity of these snow showers, but nonetheless, they remain persistent this afternoon. Now that some "diurnal heating" is materializing and temps have climbed into the teens, we are starting to see coverage increase. For the most part, these are lighter snow showers, but the accompanying 20-30mph wind gusts are leading to blowing and drifting snow.

Synoptically speaking, stout arctic borne longwave troughing is slowly moving out to the east, and northerly flow is actually leading to warming aloft, but nonetheless, lake effect snow processes are set to continue tonight into Wednesday. Eventually, the pressure gradient slackens considerably, which should decouple organized flow. Surface based lake aggregate troughing will swing through the region tomorrow, leading to winds shifting more northerly, and potentially yielding mesolow processes commencing later Wednesday night.

Forecast Details:

Still anticipating snowfall to continue into the overnight hours, somewhat suppressing in intensity across much of northern lower and eastern upper as well. Bands will shift focus to the immediate lakeshores of northwest lower, and in the eastern Yoop, bands shift away from western Chippewa county into Alger and Schoolcraft counties. Additional snowfall in western Chippewa probably in the order of 2-3" through daybreak Wednesday, with most occurring before 1am. In northern lower, an initial uptick in activity this evening should become more suppressed with the shifting winds... with the focus of lesser organized activity shifting to the Leelanau to Manistee corridor with time. Before this occurs, most dominant snows will be over Kalkaska and Antrim, which could see an additional 1-3" through 1am. Most other spots see an inch or less, perhaps a little higher from Leelanau to Manistee.

Winter Weather Advisories have been extended until 1am to account for this additional snowfall, but could easily be taken down sooner once snow begins its departure from the headlined areas.

Wednesday's activity will be much more lake aggregate troughing driven with the relaxed pressure gradient. Result will be shore- parallel bands in NW lower taking shape later in the afternoon as convergence along the shores maximizes. Perhaps later in the forecast period, some mesolow processes materialize, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in this evolution. More details to come in the passing forecast cycles.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Issued at 231 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Pattern Synopsis:

A strong closed mid/upper level low and associated troughing will pivot across much of the eastern CONUS from the beginning of the period through Thursday night. Ridging will then fold over the Great Lakes heading into Friday as subsidence aloft builds expansive high pressure from the Great Plains into the southeast CONUS through the end of the week. The pattern across the Great Lakes then looks to become more active again through the end of the period as multiple shortwaves slide overhead into early next week.

Forecast Details:

The Great Lakes being lodged between low pressure to the east and aforementioned building high pressure to the west will keep north- northwest flow in place through the end of the week. Lake effect snow chances will persist across parts of northern Michigan into Thursday night given these winds and enough low-level moisture hanging around. Enhanced snowfall may be ongoing across portions of Leelanau, Benzie, and Manistee counties at the beginning of the period, but expectation is that any strong bands will be shoved offshore through the evening due to land breeze formation. There is a chance that said banding waffles back onshore Thursday morning, but confidence in solutions is low at this time. That said, mainly light snow is expected for most areas through Thursday night.
Forecast soundings display several thousand feet sandwiched in the DGZ, which should allow for efficient, fluffy snowfall. Precip chances finally wane Friday as high pressure continues to build in, wind direction switches to west/southwest, and warmer air begins to filter into the region. Temperatures actually look to like they may warm into the 30s by the end of this weekend and into early next week. Precip chances also return to the area this weekend.

AVIATION /006 TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 959 PM EST Tue Feb 18 2025

Mostly VFR to MVFR conditions through this taf period. Will need to watch for some brief periods of IFR visibilities in snow showers this afternoon and evening...especially at KTVC and KMBL. Light northwest winds through the period.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.