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LMZ345 Expires:202312101645;;216678 Fzus53 Kapx 100845 Nshapx
nearshore marine forecast national weather service gaylord mi 345 am est Sun dec 10 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of shore on lakes huron... Michigan and superior.
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lmz344-345-101645- sleeping bear point to grand traverse light mi- point betsie to sleeping bear point mi- 345 am est Sun dec 10 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots. Rain showers and numerous snow showers early in the morning, then scattered rain and snow showers in the morning. Isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots. Isolated snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..West wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 35 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 8 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 100832 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 332 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
High Impact Weather Potential: Accumulating lake effect snow today- tonight.

Pattern Synopsis:

A shortwave trough/vorticity max evident on satellite imagery will continue to pivot over the Great Lakes this morning as a secondary cold front swings across northern Michigan. A second wave looks to progress over the Great Lakes later this afternoon and evening as much broader longwave troughing encompasses most of the CONUS east of the Rocky Mountains.

Forecast Details:

The primary concern today and tonight will be accumulating lake effect snow across portions of northwest lower and eastern upper Michigan. While light rain/snow showers are ongoing across parts of the CWA, better shower chances will arrive later this morning after the previously mentioned front works across the area. Northwest low- level flow behind the front will bring lake effect chances to the typical snowbelt areas of northwest lower and eastern upper.
Forecast soundings display saturated profiles through the lowest 2km with delta-Ts around 15C today. Somewhat meager lapse rates look to steepen into this evening/tonight with continued cooling of the profile above the surface. A more cellular mode of lake effect precip is anticipated during daylight hours as the aforementioned wave works over the Great Lakes with more dominant banding expected to set up heading into tonight. This should lead to more localized higher snowfall amounts across parts of the area overnight into Monday morning -- with the most likely area being Antrim and Kalkaska counties. Many parts of northwest lower and eastern upper are expected to see totals around 1" or less by Monday morning with higher totals around 2-3" across areas where more concentrated bands set up. Localized totals in Antrim and Kalkaska counties of 4-8" will be possible by the end of the period. Otherwise, much cooler temperatures are in store for today. Current temperatures in the mid to upper 30s will gradually drop during the day behind the aforementioned cold front. Overnight lows in the 20s are in store for the area.



SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Moderate...watching potential for accumulating lake effect snow and gusty winds Monday night-Tuesday

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Longwave trough axis tightening up over the center of the country...as ridging slips into the western US, along with 1038mb surface high centered over the Rockies. Strong 120+kt upper level jet snakes from the Pac NW down into the base of the trough in the southern Plains, and then up into the Great Lakes...driving a couple of tight vort maxes in the northeast portion of the trough. Initial vort max that intensified a surface low over N. MI and dragged those strong winds through the region Saturday afternoon located over S.
Ontario as of 3z; secondary vort max spinning into the region in its wake along what looks like a trowal axis, accompanied by some light precip. Cold front stretches from the initial surface low over Ontario down into southern TX, with some severe convection ahead of it amid better moisture and warmer temps. Secondary cold front is behind this, stretching from Hudson Bay down into the Dakotas.

Secondary trough expected to slip through today, aided by some additional energy in the back of the trough over WI. The overall trough axis should be departing the region by Monday...lifting northeastward and developing a potent east coast storm over New England
Meanwhile
we should see some improvements here in northern Michigan...as shortwave ridging briefly touches the region ahead of another potent northern stream shortwave trough diving out of central Canada. This feature will strengthen the pressure gradient over us Monday night into Tuesday as it slams a largely zonal cold front into the region...leading to another round of strong winds...as well as potential for additional lake effect, especially across the EUP. Currently expecting this boundary to hang up over the region for a time...as ridging begins to build to our west again in response to troughing over the western US and Canada.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Winds Monday night/Tuesday...
accumulating lake effect snow for the EUP Tuesday...

To be honest, setup for Monday night and Tuesday, at least as far as winds are concerned, is not all that dissimilar to today...with a strong PV maxima punching into the region with a dry slot beneath a decent jet aloft (appearing somewhat weaker than today's given proximity to the base of its attendant trough and greater ageostrophic flow). Tightening pressure gradient leading to strengthening SWly background surface flow through the night...with sustained winds of 15-25kts a reasonable idea, particularly where mesoscale influences such as channeling could enhance winds (such as between NW Lower and Beaver Island, and/or perhaps the Straits, for a WSW/SW wind)
For now
think the 6z-15z timeframe will be the windiest portion of the period...with the dry slot/cold front moving in along with the strongest flow aloft. 30-40kt gusts are fairly achievable, noting even 925mb flow should run around that magnitude.
Can't help but notice that 40+kt potential is not out of the question, either...with some signals of this showing up at 850mb, and even stronger winds at 700mb (greater than 50kts). Tapping into that 700mb jet attm doesn't seem as viable an idea...but will have to keep an eye out in case signals strengthen winds below that in the coming runs. Gustiness into the 30-40kt range has potential to last longer into the afternoon across the EUP Tuesday...where higher inversion heights (perhaps around 6kft or so) will already be supportive of deeper lake-induced convection...further complicating potential impacts across the EUP.

Do have to wonder if there will be a decent burst of snow along the front Tuesday morning...noting signals for fgen to enhance lift along the front...though moisture may not be quite deep enough, save for perhaps across the EUP, where moisture does appear a little deeper. Signals for SW flow lake enhancement with the front are weak, particularly if we end up a little drier in the boundary layer. The EUP will also be the primary focus for LES as flow becomes more W/WNW behind the front in the colder air, and closer to the vort maxima with this little system. Will have to see where the boundary ends up stalling out Tuesday...as this could have some impact on wind direction and subsequent position of LES bands. WNW flow does have better fetch for Whitefish Point. Therefore, would not be surprised if localized areas got into advisory-level snowfall totals, as the flow is a little better for a single-band type setup for them. Just how much of a NW cant the flow ends up having will influence how far south across the EUP the banding will get...and will be watching this going forward...particularly if the band ends up not moving as much and the LES firehose stays in the same spot.
Combined with the potential for gusty winds...think we will have to keep an eye on at least Chippewa county Tuesday.



LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
HIGH IMPACT WEATHER POTENTIAL: Low for now...watching breezy conditions Wednesday into Thursday...

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

Troughing gets cut off over the western US for midweek, and becomes a major factor in the remainder of the extended. For one, it should begin to build ridging and attendant surface high over the OH Valley, as warm advection spreads across central Canada. Some potential for the Upper Great Lakes to remain under the influence of high pressure and milder weather...though as we should be on the northern edge of this...have some concerns we may remain a little breezy into the latter half of the week, as another northern stream system begins to trek across central Canada. Will have to see how far south this system's influence ends up, as it could linger a BCZ over the region, and play a role in interaction with that upstream cut off low as it ejects into the Plains
Bottom line
currently looking at a breezy but perhaps milder mid/late week...with increasing potential (despite lingering uncertainty) for more unsettled weather late in the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Deep low pressure will quickly lift NE to James Bay overnight...as a closed upper low pivots thru the Western Great Lakes overnight and into the Eastern Great Lakes on Sunday. Another wave of precip will move thru Northern Michigan overnight associated with the upper low...but precip type will be a mix of rain and snow showers. Precip type will switch to mainly snow showers late tonight thru Sunday as colder air arrives in the wake of the upper low. This colder air will increase over-lake instability...producing scattered to numerous lake effect snow showers Sunday and Sunday night. Prevailing conditions will remain MVFR thru the 24 hour forecast period. Surface winds will remain from the W/SW at 10 to 20 kts with some higher gusts overnight...shifting to the NW on Sunday.

MARINE
Small craft winds and waves will continue across northern Great Lakes nearshore waters today before diminishing this evening.
Advisory conditions are expected to linger across some Lake Huron nearshore zones into tonight. Looking ahead, small craft winds and waves are expected again Monday night into Tuesday -- along with the potential for gales over some nearshore waters during that time frame.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EST Monday for MIZ021-027.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LHZ345- 346.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for LHZ347>349.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for LSZ321- 322.

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