Sunday, August25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday August 25, 2019 10:43 AM CDT (15:43 UTC) Moonrise 12:25AMMoonset 4:02PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 1045 Am Edt Sun Aug 25 2019
Today..Southeast wind 5 to 15 knots in the afternoon becoming variable 10 knots or less. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Showers likely. Waves 2 to 4 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:201908252245;;188236 FZUS53 KAPX 251445 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1045 AM EDT Sun Aug 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-252245-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 251001
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
601 am edt Sun aug 25 2019

Near term (today through tonight)
issued at 301 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
impactful weather: minimal none.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
high pressure is sliding east of the great lakes early this morning,
while mid level ridging and dry air remain over all of the region.

Skies were clear, outside of some spotty cirrus. Winds were light
and turning more out of the SE behind the departing sfc high, and
were picking up just a bit in the bl. This has not allowed for as
cool of a night, with temperatures currently in the mid 40s to mid
50s. All of the moisture and instability remain off to our south and
west into the plains, ahead of upper troughing and associated low
pressure and stationary front.

More quiet weather again today and tonight. The mid level ridging
and high pressure will continue to track east of NRN michigan today,
while the aforementioned upper troughing, starts moving into the far
western great lakes tonight. We get into a better southerly flow,
both at the sfc and in the upper levels, which will allow us to
bring in some waa, but most of the forcing, moisture and instability
will remain out to our west through tonight. Not expecting any
precipitation by late tonight, as the low to mid level stay dry, but
clouds will likely to be increasing in clouds aloft due to the waa
and pretty weak dpva. So, no precipitation for at least another 24
hrs. Highs will be in the upper half of the 70s to around 80f today,
with lows tonight holding in the 50s.

Short term (Monday through Tuesday)
issued at 301 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
high impact weather potential: possible thunderstorms Monday night
into Tuesday morning.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:
broad upper level troughing will remain over the great lakes region
throughout the forecast period. An upper level low over hudson bay
will stretch into the midwest Monday and into the southeastern
states by Wednesday. This will create periods of showers and cloudy
skies over the forecast area through Wednesday and beyond. Monday
will produce the best chances of showers storms as a cold front
associated with the attendant surface low pressure system near
hudson bay approaches from the west across the forecast area with
southerly winds advecting gulf moisture. Precipitation will begin
with the WAA regime Monday afternoon and then with the cold front
early Tuesday morning. Should actually see some decent rainfall
amounts... From what we've seen in the past few weeks anyway. Models
have between 0.25 to 0.75" of QPF along with forecast soundings with
1.50 to nearly 2.00" pwats. Late Tuesday evening night, northern
michigan becomes dry slotted, with rain clearing out, but with
clouds remaining as broad upper level troughing and lingering
moisture remain overhead. Winds will have a southerly component
through Tuesday afternoon evening, until aforementioned cold front
moves through and veers winds to more westerly. Winds each day could
gusts up to 20-25 mph, even closer to 30 mph Wednesday with the cold
air advection. Daytime temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s,
while the westerly winds will advect a bit cooler temperatures for
Wednesday... Only reaching into the mid 60s to low 70s.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 301 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
high impact weather... None is expected.

Broad troughing mentioned in previous forecast period will continue
to produce periodic showers through Friday for northern michigan.

High pressure and drier air then move in late Friday and should
produce a rather pleasant beginning to the holiday
weekend... Although beginning to be a bit cooler, with daytime
temperatures reaching into the upper 60s to near 70.

Aviation (for the 12z tafs through 12z Monday morning)
issued at 600 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
high pressure continues to track east of the great lakes today
through tonight, with a slightly better pressure gradient and se
wind later today and into tonight. This could result in some low end
llws tonight, but am not confident enough to include in the tafs
attm. Another day of afternoon cumulus, with increasing high level
clouds through tonight.VFR through the period.

Marine
Issued at 301 am edt Sun aug 25 2019
high pressure continues to track east of the great lakes today
through tonight, making way for low pressure and a cold front, and
associated showers and chance of thunderstorms, to arrive later
Monday into Tuesday. Winds are turning more out of the se, and will
start increasing late today and tonight, with spotty low end
advisory speeds possible across far NRN lakes michigan and huron, as
well as whitefish bay. There will be better chances for small craft
advisories later Monday Monday night and into Tuesday. Will go ahead
and just start with the issuance of small craft advisories for late
this afternoon and tonight.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt Monday
for lhz345>347.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt Monday
for lmz341-342.

Ls... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 2 am edt Monday
for lsz321.

Near term... Smd
short term... Tl
long term... Tl
aviation... Smd
marine... Smd


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 17 mi43 min SE 7.8 G 7.8 67°F 66°F1025.5 hPa
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi63 min Calm G 8.9 71°F 1024.7 hPa
45002 - N MICHIGAN- Halfway between North Manitou and Washington Islands. 41 mi43 min SSE 9.7 G 12 66°F 1023.8 hPa (-0.4)58°F
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 41 mi63 min E 5.1 G 8 68°F 1024 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi63 min E 6 G 11 68°F 1024 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi65 minESE 510.00 miFair72°F52°F51%1023.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW6W10N6NW8
G15
N7N5N3N3NE3CalmCalmE4CalmCalmCalmSE4SE4CalmCalmSE3SE7SE5SE7
1 day agoN7N9N9N6N9
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N7N5N5N4CalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4Calm
2 days agoN7N6N6N9
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NE7N4N4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3NE4N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (11,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.