Sunday, January26, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:53PM Sunday January 26, 2020 5:24 AM CST (11:24 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 7:34PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 335 Am Est Sun Jan 26 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Patchy fog early in the morning. Chance of freezing drizzle early in the morning. Chance of drizzle and snow showers through the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the morning.
Tonight..North wind 10 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots. Chance of freezing drizzle and snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Monday..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:202001261645;;531981 FZUS53 KAPX 260835 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 335 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-261645-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 261117 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 617 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

High impact weather potential: Slick roads possible early this morning with combo of light freezing drizzle, light snow and fog. Minor snow accumulations today, especially northwest lower. Potential for some freezing drizzle again tonight.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Upper low continuing to slide east of the area today with weak cold air advection combined with wrap around moisture producing light precipitation. Low level convergence along trailing trough rotating around upper feature will enhance coverage of light snow and produce minor snow accumulations. Rising heights tonight and lowering inversions will gradually diminish lingering precipitation.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Initial precipitation type questions this morning. Potential snowfall accumulations throughout the day. Then possibility of some freezing drizzle tonight.

Still question marks on precipitation type early this morning as forecast soundings are still marginally saturated up to the -10C isotherm. Will keep things mixed during this time with wrap around moisture bringing scattered light snow, drizzle and freezing drizzle. Will message some slick early morning roads with temperatures hovering close to freezing. Scattered precipitation should get an uptick in coverage and intensity later this morning into the afternoon as trough pinwheeling around parent upper low slides through the area. Moisture convergence along this feature should boost moisture into the DGZ, resulting in snow as the pre- dominate precipitation type. In addition, will likely get a lake contribution over northwest lower as H8 temperatures fall to -7c to -8c combined with synoptic moisture. Parts of northwest lower may see an inch or two, with most other areas less than one inch. Skies may begin to clear over parts of eastern upper later this afternoon behind the trough with drier air filtering into that area. Temperatures not going very far today, with most locations fairly steady in the lower to middle 30s.

Mid level moisture strips out this evening with still lingering low level moisture over northwest lower mainly west of US-131. Forecast soundings once again show saturation dipping below the -10c isotherm with even a little bit of shear at the top of the inversion. This certainly points to freezing drizzle chances. Will add this threat to the forecast for these areas and include in the HWO. Low temperatures in the 20s. Will have to watch low temperatures in parts of eastern upper where partial clearing could result in colder readings.

SHORT TERM. (Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

. Freezing Drizzle Monday, Drainage Flow Tuesday .

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast . Monday, the models are coming in with soundings that are drizzle-ish in the LES zones of NW Lower, with the temperatures that support very little LES, especially near CAD and mbL. This continues into Monday night, so have added some slight chance pops for adding Drizzle/Freezing Drizzle. Although it looks like things finally begin to really dry out Tuesday, and especially on Tuesday night with the NE Flow, which could bring some more chilly temperatures.

Primary Forecast Concerns . Thought about the drizzle being a problem, but with NW flow and dry air, the chances look low. So the concern will be the low temperatures on Tuesday as the NE flow from Canada could cool the temperatures, especially in E Upper. Looking at the model certainty tool, the forecast is on the lower side of the forecasts. So lowered the temperatures a couple of degrees from the blended forecast.

LONG TERM. (Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

High Impact Weather Potential . Minimal

Wednesday remains dry as most of the energy looks to go south of the forecast area. May see snow fall in NW Lower but likely will remain dry through the day and night. Thursday, the models again diverge on day 4 as the ECMWF has an open wave beginning to move into the forecast area, versus the GFS digging wave (it was a cut off yesterday) at 500 mb bringing snow into Wisconsin, and eventually us by Friday morning. Friday, on the ECMWF the open wave (500 mb) skirts south along with most of the precipitation. The GFS has an elongated trough that continues precipitation through Friday evening. Friday night, A wave drops into the Upper Great Lakes on the ECMWF, while the GFS has some LES as a weaker wave moves through. Saturday, a few weak waves continue to move through the Upper Great Lakes bringing chance for LES and maybe some mixed drizzle snow again?

So for the most part, the temperatures remain mild for this time of year, with minimal impacting systems.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning) Issued at 612 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Moisture wrapping around the backside of a departing area of low pressure will produce snow showers at the terminals today. There may be a bit of drizzle or freezing drizzle mixing in with the snow early this morning, but things should transition to all snow as the day progresses. Cigs will vary between IFR and MVFR throughout the day. Vsbys will generally be MVFR, although could dip to IFR for a time from late morning into the afternoon with any heavier snow showers. The snow will wind down by late afternoon or early evening. There is a low confidence possibility of freezing drizzle developing tonight at mbL and TVC. Winds will be gusty from the northwest throughout the day, diminishing tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 319 AM EST Sun Jan 26 2020

Winds becoming gusty today from the northwest behind a departing area of low pressure. This will result in small craft conditions on many of the nearshore waters. Gradient begins to weaken tonight which will result in slowly diminishing winds. Still some residual wave action and SCA's will continue for many areas throughout the night. Lighter wind pattern for much of this upcoming week.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Monday for LHZ347-348. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 6 AM EST Monday for LMZ323-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . JK SHORT TERM . JL LONG TERM . JL AVIATION . JK MARINE . JK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi44 min WNW 18 G 23 35°F 1008.1 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 41 mi44 min WNW 13 G 15 35°F 1009.8 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi44 min WNW 15 G 17 34°F 1009.8 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Frankfort, Frankfort Dow Memorial Field Airport, MI15 mi29 minWNW 810.00 miOvercast33°F30°F91%1008.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW6NW3CalmNW4CalmNW4NW3W3NW3NW6NW9
1 day agoE4E3E6E8
G15
E8E5E5E5SE10E3E4E6NE6E3E3E3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSE5SE5SE6SE5SE5SE4SE5E5SE3E4CalmE3E5E4E3SE3E3CalmE5E5NE7E3E4E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.