Monday, July13, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Empire, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:18AMSunset 8:34PM Monday July 13, 2020 6:05 AM CDT (11:05 UTC) Moonrise 12:35AMMoonset 1:46PM Illumination 45% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ345 Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- Manistee To Point Betsie Mi- 349 Am Edt Mon Jul 13 2020
Today..Light winds. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 2 to 3 feet. SEe the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.
LMZ345 Expires:202007131600;;770863 FZUS53 KAPX 130749 NSHAPX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Gaylord MI 349 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lakes Huron... Michigan and Superior. Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LMZ345-346-131600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Empire, MI
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location: 44.81, -86.06     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 131004 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 604 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

NEAR TERM. (Today through Tonight) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Impactful weather: Minimal/None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Upper troughing was on the east coast and over the Rockies early this morning, with ridging leaning into the western Great Lakes. At the sfc, low pressure was in Nova Scotia, with a cold front draping south along the eastern seaboard. Low pressures were also in the central Canadian provinces, as well as the nrn Plains. A warm front extended SE into Iowa from the nrn Plains low pressure. The nearest showers/storms were in North Dakota and eastern Montana, ahead of a cold front associated with the central provinces low pressure. Here in nrn Michigan, we still had some lower level clouds dropping south through nrn lower, while skies have cleared in eastern upper. Just upstream however, sfc high pressure extended from Ontario down through the western Great Lakes.

Gonna be quiet today through tonight. The upper level ridging will move over nrn Michigan tonight, while sfc high pressure drifts over, and then east of us. The current low level clouds in nrn lower ought to gradually dissipate as drier air moves into the region, but will turn into another SCT-BKN cumulus field today. These cloud fade tonight, with just some higher level cloud arriving tonight, ahead of the aforementioned warm front, which will lift through WI/western Lake Superior. No precipitation is expected through tonight.

Highs today will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows tonight will range through the 50s most areas.

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Rain/thunder chances, mainly beginning Wednesday afternoon.

Pattern Synopsis:

Longwave troughing will encompass much of south-central Canada and the north-central CONUS as ridging pushes into the Great Lakes on Tuesday. At the surface, a cyclone will strengthen west of Hudson Bay underneath favorable divergence/ascent aloft, encroaching on lingering high pressure across the eastern half of the continent. Aforementioned troughing will gradually shift east as SWs/ speed maxima embedded in the parent flow rotate into the Great Lakes through mid-week. A cold front associated with the cyclone is expected to swing down through the N CONUS in the Tuesday night/Wednesday timeframe, becoming more diffuse as it approaches the Great Lakes.

Forecast/Details:

Rain chances arrive Tuesday night, but will be mostly confined to eastern upper and far NW lower MI. While a fair amount of uncertainty exists with the timing of the approaching cold front and SWs/speed maxima rotating through the Great Lakes, the main rain and thunder chances are expected across the area Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Southerly low-level flow will advect warm, moist air into the area ahead of the front and should create a marginally unstable airmass (MLCAPE less than 500 J/kg) on Wednesday. While low-level wind profiles are not impressive, 0-6 km bulk shear values near 35 kts could support a few strong, organized thunderstorms. Straight hodographs leading to low near-surface shear/SRH could also create convective evolution issues that would otherwise be conducive to a few severe thunderstorms during the evening. While a severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, confidence in details regarding thunderstorm development/evolution on Wednesday will increase as the day gets in range of the high-res model guidance suite.

Perhaps the more important hazard Wednesday will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Precipitable water values are anticipated to be well above 1.50", more likely nearing daily max values close to 1.90". This would create very efficient convective rainfall and, when combined with expected relatively slow storm motions (20-25 kts), the potential for high rainfall totals over a short period of time. Local amounts of 1-1.5" would be possible, especially with the possibility of multiple rounds of rain through Wednesday and Wednesday night. Otherwise, highs in the low 80s are anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon with increasing cloud cover on Tuesday as rain chances arrive from the west.

LONG TERM. (Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

Mainly zonal upper-level flow will set up across the U.S./Canada border Thursday and last through the weekend. With the cold front mentioned in the short term being so diffuse, very little to no cooling is expected on Thursday. Temperatures will begin to ramp up again heading through the weekend with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s anticipated Friday through Sunday. Dewpoints in the mid-60s could lead to heat indices near 100 over the weekend in some areas. This very warm, moist air mass in place could lead to large instability across the area. While a large amount of uncertainty exists, this sets up the potential for thunderstorm development over the weekend, especially with any embedded shortwaves that rotate through the main flow and provide favorable ascent over northern MI. Confidence in timing/potential will increase as the weekend nears.

AVIATION. (For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning) Issued at 604 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Clouds are finally breaking up in nrn lower Michigan, but will morph into or turn into a SCT-BKN cumulus field by this afternoon. These clouds will fade this evening, leaving behind some high level clouds out ahead of a warm front that lifts into the western Great Lakes. High pressure settles overhead today, before drifting east tonight, resulting in much lighter NW winds, with little to no gustiness. Outside of some additional fog at mbL tonight, VFR over the TAF period.

MARINE. Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Winds and waves will remain below advisory levels through Tuesday, as high pressure and a loose pressure gradient drift across the region. There will be no precipitation over this time. There is a chance for advisory level winds Tuesday night into Wednesday for Whitefish Bay and Lake Michigan, as a tighter pressure gradient moves in ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers are likely over this time, along with possible thunderstorms. No severe storms are expected.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . SMD SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . SMD MARINE . SMD


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45183 17 mi35 min N 7.8 G 9.7 65°F 69°F1 ft
GTLM4 - Grand Traverse Light, MI 39 mi25 min N 8 G 9.9 86°F 1015.9 hPa
MEEM4 - Manistee Harbor, MI 41 mi85 min ENE 1.9 G 2.9 62°F 1016.6 hPa
BSBM4 - Big Sable Point, MI 57 mi85 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 59°F 1015.9 hPa

Wind History for Ludington, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure

Link to 5 minute data for KFKS

Wind History from FKS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN10
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1 day agoW8W6SW6S5W7W4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE6E4SE5SE4SE4W5W5N10
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2 days agoSW6W4W4W4W6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4SW5W5SW4W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.