Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Chazy, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
As of 412 AM EDT Saturday...A train of subtropical moisture and rounds of thunderstorms continues moving northeastward from just south of Baja California into the eastern Great Lakes. Once these storms make it into northern New York and Vermont on the cool side of a surface warm front, they have lost fuel such that thunderstorms have largely dissipated. The next round of showers early this morning will mark the warm frontal passage, after which southwesterly winds, or locally southerly in the Champlain Valley, should start to pick up. These winds should peak after another area of showers cross the area during the midday hours from west to east and dampen the warming curve.
Following these showers during the remainder of the afternoon, some wind gusts could reach the 35 to 45 MPH range in with terrain enhancements across the Route 11 corridor of northern New York.

In addition to non-thunderstorm wind gusts, scattered convection, especially after 3 PM or so, could produce localized wind gusts of similar magnitude in portions of Vermont as surface- based instability quickly increases. Think the previous rain will help elevate dew points to near 60 degrees and partial sunshine should allow temperatures to soar well into the 70s, with greatest instability expected in Addison and Rutland counties. Forecast soundings have an inverted V shape with high LCLs indicative of gusty wind potential; effective shear could be too high to support 40 knots coincident with CAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Because the frontal boundary will not be very sharp and height falls meager, the large scale lift will be limited such that coverage of thunderstorms looks to be pretty isolated, especially if CAPE winds up being on the lower side of guidance. We have conditional thunderstorm chances in a broad area but most locations probably will not see thunderstorms today.

A secondary front will shift winds from westerly to northwesterly with additional, lighter shower chances tonight. Chilly air will filter in from the north behind this boundary. High temperatures on Sunday will be much lower than today, mainly in the upper 40s to mid 50s, and breezy northwesterly winds will persist throughout the day as high pressure remains to our west with pressure rises steadily occurring. It will be another very dry air mass, and with us still being pre-green-up, relative humidities should plummet well below 30% with abundant sunshine. Wind gusts will not be overly strong, but 20 to 25 MPH will be common, with some near 30 MPH in eastern Vermont.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...High pressure will quickly slide across the region Sunday night and Monday morning, giving way to our next low pressure system by Monday evening. Initial warm air advection precipitation will be slow to reach the ground as the resident airmass will be quite dry, but rain should gradually develop from west to east during the late afternoon/evening hours. Low pressure will slide up to our west Monday night and then north of the international border on Tuesday, dragging a frontal boundary through our region as it does so. The best moisture moves through Monday night, and that's when the bulk of the shower activity will occur.
Thunderstorm chances will be minimal given the lack of instability. Winds will turn toward the west/northwest Tuesday behind the front, so expect there will be some wrap around mountain showers through much of the day, then coming to an end Tuesday night. Monday and Tuesday will feature highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s. Lows will be coldest Sunday night due to light winds and clear skies; temperatures should dip into the mid 20s to mid 30s. Moisture and cloud cover will keep Monday night in the 40s, but drying conditions by Tuesday night will allow lows to get back down into the mid 30s to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 406 AM EDT Saturday...Ridging will build in for Wednesday, though we'll remain under fast zonal flow aloft. So while Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly dry, can't rule out a few stray showers as weak shortwaves cross overhead.
Precipitation chances increase heading into Friday as a stronger upper trough and its associated low pressure system will spread rain eastward. There's still quite a bit of model spread in how this next system shapes up, and a wide range in solutions for placement/timing of precipitation. Have stayed close to the NBM for the end of the long term period to account for these differences, which gives chance PoPs by late Friday.
Temperatures will remain seasonable through the last half of the week, with Thursday being the warmest day as most spots warm into the 60s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Through 06Z Sunday...An area of VFR light rain with localized 4SM visibilities is currently moving across the airspace north of RUT. Behind this shower activity, there will be a break between 07Z and 09Z from west to east of a couple hours, followed by potentially more showers, especially northernmost terminals. Like the previous activity, thunderstorm chances are relatively low as convection weakens, but will monitor as this currently shows slightly deeper cloud tops than the previous batch that did not produce lighting at our area terminals. More isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible during the afternoon ahead of cold front, but again confidence of thunderstorms is too low to indicate in TAFs. Greatest chances would be at RUT where greater destabilization is favored. Ceilings will trend lower, especially behind the front as winds turn west-northwesterly towards 00Z and beyond.

Increasing southwest winds at 2000 ft agl of 40 to 50 knots is producing areas of low level wind shear as surface winds are generally light aside from at BTV. Between 12Z and 16Z, winds will gradually veer and increase areawide to 10 to 15 knots sustained with gusts 20 to 28 knots. This will at least limit LLWS.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Definite SHRA.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. NO SIG WX.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.