Thursday, February20, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 5:29PM Thursday February 20, 2020 1:57 PM EST (18:57 UTC) Moonrise 6:23AMMoonset 3:27PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912312230;;216635 Fzus61 Kbuf 311749 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1249 Pm Est Tue Dec 31 2019 Slz022-024-312230- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1249 Pm Est Tue Dec 31 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers and numerous rain showers.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Lake effect snow showers in the evening, then a chance of snow showers after midnight.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy.
Wednesday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Mostly cloudy.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain and snow showers likely Thursday night.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Rain showers.
Saturday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Rain showers during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. The saint lawrence seaway has closed for the 2019 navigation season, therefore the forecast for the saint lawrence river has been discontinued. The forecast will resume in the spring when the river opens for navigation.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 201725 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 1225 PM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

SYNOPSIS. A relatively cold day is in store for the North Country today with highs in the teens. Tonight will be the coldest night of the week with lows falling to the single digits below zero for most areas. Our temperatures will then moderate as we head into the weekend with temperatures warming back to above normal temperatures through early next week. Chances for any precipitation remain slim through the weekend with the next chance for rain/snow occurring midweek as a low pressure system lifts northeastward out of the central US.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 1158 AM EST Thursday . No big changes for the noon update, just to adjust sky grids to reflect current satellite trends. Previous discussion follows.

Hourly temperatures continue to be the main forecast challenge this morning with cloud cover persisting over much of the forecast area. Have raised hourly temperatures in most places consistent with observations. At this point, we're fairly close to our low temperatures as of 530 AM, with min temps only expected to fall a couple degrees lower than current observations before we begin to gradually warm this morning. Previous discussion follows.

Relatively quiet forecast for the near term as expansive high pressure centered over the central US builds eastward towards the East Coast. Main forecast challenge this morning is temperatures . which have not falling as sharply as anticipated. This is due to some low and mid-level clouds streaming eastward off the Great Lakes as a sheared shortwave moves through aloft. With temperatures this morning only falling to the single digits over most of the area and light winds with a stable boundary layer, no longer concerned about wind chills in the NEK. Have taken down the Wind Chill Advisory for Essex County. Winds will pickup slightly by late morning as boundary layer destabilizes, resulting in some breezy westerly winds developing by the afternoon hours. Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy today with multiple shortwaves moving through aloft. The insulating cloud cover along with weak cold air advection through the day will prevent temperatures from rising much today. Highs are forecast in the teens for much of the area, and low to mid 20s in lower elevations of southern Vermont. Skies will trend clear tonight as a narrow ridge of high pressure crests overhead. Weak warm air advection will develop through the night, especially over northern NY, which will prevent temperatures from plummeting too sharply, but still looking at the coldest night of the week for our forecast area. Overnight lows tonight will be between 0 and -10 for much of the area. The exception will be the NEK of VT where lows will reach as low as -15F.

Friday will be dry and warmer as magnitude of warm air advection increases. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 20s. Dry weather and mostly sunny skies can be expected as ridging aloft moves overhead.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 335 AM EST Thursday . Fast westerly flow aloft prevails acrs our cwa during this time period with temps warming to above normal values by the weekend. Strong 1035mb sfc high pres will move toward the se conus, while a very weak embedded 5h vort with limited moisture passes along the international border on Saturday. Not anticipating much precip, maybe a few flurries in the mtns. Temps are challenging given moderate to strong wind fields acrs our cwa during this time period, especially at night and determining amount of mixing. Thinking faster 925mb to 850mb flow of 25 to 40 knots, along with some mtn wave clouds will keep temps on the milder side of guidance, especially on Sat Night. Meanwhile, progged 925mb temps warm between -1C and -3C by 21z Saturday, supporting highs well into the 30s. Expecting lows mid teens eastern/central VT valleys to mid 20s cpv/slv, if winds decouple and skies clear some single digits possible on Friday and Saturday, especially NEK/eastern sections.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 335 AM EST Thursday . A period of much above normal temps anticipated Sunday thru middle of next week, with mainly dry conditions thru Monday. Warm westerly flow at all levels will advect progged 925mb temps in the 2 to 4C range by late Sunday into early Tues. These thermal profiles with some mixing, will support highs mid 30s to lower 40s Sunday, l/m 40s on Monday and Tues with lows generally in the mid 20s to lower 30s, except some upper teens colder valleys. A few locations may approach 50f on Monday, if some sun and better mixing can occur, before a weak front and additional clouds arrive on Tues, along with slightly cooler temps. Our next system looks to arrive late Tues into Weds, with plenty of uncertainty on evolution, thermal profiles and track of sfc features. Latest trends have been for a warmer initial system with sfc low pres tracking to our west and placing a sharp thermal boundary acrs our fa. Will continue to mention chc rain/snow showers in grids, with temps cooling back into the 30s for Weds. GFS ensemble data continues to support a large spread in members, highlighting the uncertainty in the sfc development and track, along with magnitude of mid/upper lvl trof.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Through 18Z Friday . VFR for next 24 hours. Will see SCT/BKN clouds persist in to 035 to 070 AGL range through 03Z today before trending SKC from 03Z onward. Winds light west/northwesterly 5-10 kts, then trending light and variable again overnight as high pressure crests overhead. Winds are locally easterly at PBG, but will trend light overnight.

Outlook .

Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Saturday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. NO SIG WX. Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday: VFR. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . None. NY . None.

SYNOPSIS . Duell NEAR TERM . Duell/Neiles SHORT TERM . Taber LONG TERM . Taber AVIATION . Neiles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi64 minSSE 1010.00 miOvercast14°F6°F71%1030.9 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi61 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy14°F0°F52%1031.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBG

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
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N11NW12N8N7NW8S3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmCalmN4N9N6N9N9N6E8E10SE10
1 day agoS22
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2 days agoNE10NE10NE7NE6NE3CalmCalmW3--CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS8S13S15S12S16
G22
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G29

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.