Friday, December13, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:20AMSunset 4:15PM Friday December 13, 2019 5:03 PM EST (22:03 UTC) Moonrise 6:41PMMoonset 9:41AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912132215;;291077 Fzus61 Kbuf 131422 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 922 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019 Slz022-024-132215- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 922 Am Est Fri Dec 13 2019
This afternoon..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny through early afternoon, then increasing clouds.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. A chance of rain early, then rain from late evening on. Areas of fog after midnight.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest. Rain in the morning, then rain showers in the afternoon.
Saturday night..West winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Rain and snow showers.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Snow showers likely during the day.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of snow showers Monday night.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 132039 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 339 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Developing surface low pressure near the North Carolina coast will track northward, moving across northern New York and Vermont during Saturday evening. This strengthening low pressure system will bring a wide variety of weather conditions. First, areas of freezing drizzle and freezing rain will bring a light glaze of ice across the Adirondacks and central and eastern Vermont this evening, resulting in icy roads and sidewalks. Precipitation changes over to plain rain areawide after midnight, lasting into the mid- morning hours Saturday. Up to an inch of rain is possible across portions of south-central Vermont, and temperatures will warm into the 40s Saturday afternoon. Colder air will filter in on the backside of the departing low Saturday night. Rain ends as wet snow, with several inches of snow accumulation possible across the higher terrain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Sunday will also feature brisk conditions, with gusty westerly winds of 30 to 40 mph at times. Quieter weather returns for Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 307 PM EST Friday . Winter Weather Advisory continues thru midnight for freezing drizzle and light freezing rain across portions of nrn NY as well as VT along and east of the Green Mountains. Low stratus deck has overspread southern half of the forecast area and continues to stream nwd. Have had reports of freezing drizzle this afternoon and KVSF is currently 2.5sm in BR with OVC015 conditions and a temperature of 27F. Also seeing a bit of snow and sleet mixing in briefly at the onset of precipitation. Steadier precipitation between BGM and ALB arrives around 21Z, and will see periods of sleet and light freezing rain developing at that time, continuing thru this evening. Total ice amounts will be limited to a light glaze to around a tenth of an inch. Not a power outage concern, but VT road temperatures are well below freezing, and should remain so into this evening along/east of the Green Mtns. Across western VT, should be warm enough with southerly flow to mitigate the icing threat from Rutland county up thru the VT side of the Champlain Valley. On the NY side, the eastern slopes of the Adirondacks and any sheltered valleys will also be slow to warm above freezing, and expect some locally icy roads there through late this evening.

Eventually, low-level WAA increases enough that all locations warm above freezing by midnight or so. Best UVV and QG forcing takes places during the pre-dawn hours Saturday until about 15Z. During this time frame, periods of moderate rainfall is expected. A sely upslope flow could yield up to 0.70" rainfall on the eastern Slopes of the Green Mtns by 15Z. After 15Z, mid- level dryslot shifts across the region, and the remainder of the daylight hrs will feature low cloud cover but just intermittent rain or showers. Temperatures will warm into the 40s. With limited snowmelt component and the mid-day decrease in rainfall, am not overly concerned about rivers and streams reaching flood, but may see the Otter Creek at Center Rutland reach action stage/near bankful. See Hydro section below for details.

Deep low pressure (sub-980mb) departs to our north Saturday night. Will see another period of rain areawide, followed by a deformation axis/comma head portion of the synoptic low shifting ewd across nrn NY during Saturday night. A WNWLY wind shift and low-level CAA will cause snow levels to crash, and anticipate rain changing over to a period of accumulating snow across much of nrn NY by midnight, and across central/nrn VT by 3AM or so. Will see some periods of low visibility and developing WNWLY wind gusts of 30-35 mph toward daybreak Sunday, with temps falling to near/slightly below freezing. Appears we may eventually need a Winter Weather Advisory for portions of nrn NY for late Saturday night into early Sunday morning with 3-5" snowfall possible. May see 3-5" of snow across the higher summits of nrn VT as well, but lesser amounts below 2000' elevation. Could be some wintry travel impacts to toward daybreak Sunday, especially over the higher terrain.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. As of 307 PM EST Friday . Sunday morning will see steady pressure rises with tightly packed pressure contours indicating 50-60 knots at 850mb. Mixing potential will be favorable with the cold air advection near the surface resulting in nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates. An inversion will develop beyond Sunday morning at 4500-6000ft, just above ridge tops. This continues to indicate favorable conditions for strong downslope winds on the eastern slopes of the Greens and Adirondacks, with 40- 45 mph and isolated 50 mph gusts possible. Elsewhere in the CWA, breezy 25-35 mph gusts are expected. With the saturated soils and recent thaws, the potential exists for downed trees and powerlines. Impacts will be refined as we approach the event. High temps for Sunday will be in the 30s with overnight lows in the teens and single digits across the northern counties.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 307 PM EST Friday . The long term starts off dry as upper level ridging moves over the region. A decent shortwave with accompanying deepening surface low will move into the area on Tuesday. Models differ slightly on the track of the low with variations of the track across the southern half of the CWA or across southern New England. While all solutions are favorable for some snowfall, a decent chance for wintry mix across the southern counties exists. Snow showers, especially across the higher elevations will linger on Wednesday as the upper low passes with a strong pool of arctic air moving in as well. As stated in previous discussions, snow squalls can't be ruled out. Past that, very cold and dry weather is expected for the end of the week.

AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Through 18Z Saturday . Will see developing MVFR ceilings associated with stratus layer shifting nwd across VT and northern NY this afternoon. Initial concern through this evening will be developing areas of patchy drizzle and localized freezing drizzle. For the TAF locations, appears the best chance for light icing will be at MPV, which could impact ground operations thru this evening. Elsewhere, any light mixed precipitation will be of brief duration. Precipitation will be plain rain overnight at the TAF locations, generally of moderate intensity during the pre-dawn thru the mid-morning hours on Saturday. Widespread MVFR with intervals of IFR expected. Should see a mid-level dry slot toward 15-18Z Saturday. This dry slot will result in diminishing intensity rainfall, with intermittent lulls. Winds this afternoon remain gusty at BTV, generally 15G25KT, but trending lighter toward sunset at the surface. Aloft, a low-level jet will bring increasing threat of low-level wind shear after 00Z Saturday and lasting into the mid-morning hours Saturday.

Outlook .

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Likely SHRA, Likely SHSN. Sunday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Windy with gusts to 30 kt. Chance SHSN, Slight chance SHRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHSN. Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. Chance SN. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Chance SHSN. Wednesday: MVFR. Chance SHSN.

HYDROLOGY. A widespread moderate rainfall event is expected late tonight into the weekend with several rounds of precipitation. Rainfall amounts will range from 0.75 to 1.50 inches across our hydro service area, with heaviest amounts generally along and south of I-89 and on the eastern slopes of the Greens with best upslope flow. Given saturated soils from recent wet spell, sharp mainly in bank rises are expected. Most rivers should remain below action stage, but the Otter Creek at Center Rutland may approach minor flood stage at crest Saturday night. There is a lower chance of action stage being reached on the Ausable and Mad Rivers (also Saturday night). We will continue to monitor, but the flood threat appears marginal at this time.

MARINE. A Lake Wind Advisory continues for south winds at 20 to 25 knots with localized gusts up to 30 knots through early evening. These winds will gradually weaken later this evening, as a light drizzle develops followed by periods of rain. Waves of 3 to 5 feet should subside slightly to 2 to 4 feet this evening.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for VTZ003- 004-006>008-010-012-019. NY . Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for NYZ028- 030-031-034-035.

SYNOPSIS . Banacos NEAR TERM . Banacos SHORT TERM . Verasamy LONG TERM . Verasamy AVIATION . Banacos HYDROLOGY . Taber/Banacos MARINE . Banacos


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi71 minS 1110.00 miFair37°F30°F76%1023.5 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi68 minS 10 G 1610.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F32°F70%1023.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBG

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS4CalmS5S8S6S8S11S12
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34W4CalmS4S4S3SW3W6SW7--Calm3E5E4CalmCalm
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NW7NW8N6N7N7N8N5CalmS4S6SE7SE13S13S4S9S6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.