Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 8:36PM Thursday July 18, 2019 1:33 PM EDT (17:33 UTC) Moonrise 9:56PMMoonset 6:52AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201907181530;;246721 Fzus61 Kbuf 181040 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 640 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019 Slz022-024-181530- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 640 Am Edt Thu Jul 18 2019
Today..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..Northeast winds less than 10 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Friday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning.
Friday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Sunday..West winds less than 10 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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Fxus61 kbtv 181451
afdbtv
area forecast discussion
national weather service burlington vt
1051 am edt Thu jul 18 2019

Synopsis
An active period of weather is expected across the north
country beginning Friday through Saturday. Mainly dry weather
is expected today with temperatures warming into the mid to
upper 80s with comfortable humidity levels. Humidity increases
Thursday night with hot and humid conditions expected on Friday
and Saturday. Chances for thunderstorms exist both Friday and
Saturday. Any storms that do develop on Saturday have the
potential to be strong to severe. More seasonable weather
returns by early next week.

Near term through Friday
As of 1050 am edt Thursday... No changes needed with this update.

Previous discussion... Thursday is still looking like a pleasant
day across the north country with high pressure mostly in
control. Early morning fog will mix out by sunrise leaving
mostly sunny skies for much of the area. Residual moisture
across southern new england ny will advect northward on return
southerly flow. This will increase cloud cover mainly across
rutland windsor counties. Elsewhere skies will be mostly sunny
with passing high level clouds.

Overall chances for precipitation will be minimal with the best
chances across northern new york. Cam models are in good agreement
on area of showers developing due to surface convergence with the
lake breeze off lake ontario and southeasterly flow over the tug
with storm(s) moving northeastward into southern st lawrence and
franklin counties late Thursday afternoon. With real lack of
forcing, and a well defined cap at 700-600mb, vertical development
of these storms should be limited. Any storms that do develop will
dissipate towards sunset with loss of daytime heating.

High pressure will slide eastward Thursday night as southerly flow
increases across the area. Pwats begin to increase during this time
frame which will keep nighttime temperature up. This will be the
first of several nights with low temperatures near 70 for the
champlain st lawrence valley and mid upper 60s elsewhere. With fast
zonal flow aloft, pieces of shortwave energy will move across the
area Thursday night Friday. Models indicate decaying convection will
enter our western northern new york zones by Friday morning. This
residual precipitation and cloud cover may limit the initial extent
of daytime heating but expecting good recovery during the daytime
hours with temperatures still warming into the upper 80s to low 90s.

With dew points in the low 70s, heat indices will be in the upper
90s. The chance for an afternoon thunderstorms still looks possible
with plenty of CAPE (~1500-2000 j kg) and moisture, however shear is
marginal and mid-level cap and dry air will limit both vertical and
areal extent of storms.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
As of 458 am edt Thursday... The main concerns for the end of the week
will be heat and humidity, followed by the chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms on Saturday.

Very warm and muggy conditions will persist through the short term
as we remain on the periphery of a heat ridge centered to the south
and east. 925mb temps of 24-27c indicate highs will at least
approach 90 across much of the north country, with the wider valleys
likely topping out in the lower to mid 90s. This combined with
dewpoints in the 70s will make for dangerously hot conditions, with
heat index values around 100f. Heat advisories look likely, but at
this time only a few scattered locations are expected to exceed heat
warning criteria. Have therefore held off on any excessive heat
watch. There won't be a lot of relief Saturday night as we'll have
another muggy night with lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The other issue for Saturday will be the potential for convection.

This is less certain than the heat concerns, as model guidance is
showing significant differences in placement of precipitation. While
moisture and instability will be abundant (both the NAM and GFS have
cape values 2500+ j kg), 18 00z NAM now has a surface frontal
boundary and upper jet located well to our north. The lack of this
lifting mechanism combined with a substantial cap has resulted in
the NAM producing absolutely no precipitation across the region
Saturday or Saturday night. Meanwhile, the 18 00z GFS has the weak
boundary and upper jet located just north of the international
border Saturday and Saturday night, along with a much less
substantial warm layer aloft. Hence, it develops convection across
the region Saturday afternoon and evening. If the GFS holds
true... Deep layer shear of 30-45 kt indicates the potential for
strong to severe convection, capable of producing damaging wind
gusts and heavy rainfall. Please stay tuned for later forecasts as
hopefully subsequent model runs will come to a consensus on the
placement of convection.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
As of 458 am edt Thursday... Cooler and drier air will finally return
next week as a cold front will push across the region on Sunday.

High pwats capes indicate the potential for showers and
thunderstorms as this front moves through, with central and southern
sections of our forecast area seeing the highest chances due to
favorable timing of the frontal passage. Highs will be in the mid
80s to around 90. The rest of the week will see a return to more
normal temperatures behind the front. The airmass will be drier as
well. However, we'll remain under cyclonic flow as an upper low
pinwheels over eastern canada, which will keep at least a slight
chance of showers around through much of the week.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
Through 12z Friday... Valley fog and low stratus is beginning to
lift with visibility ceilings restrictions at kmpv and other
eastern vt terminals improving by 13z.VFR conditions are
expected through the period with passing high clouds. Isolated
shower possible across northern new york this afternoon with
brief visibility ceilings reductions. Towards 12z tomorrow
clouds will begin to thicken and lower as precipitation chances
increase. Winds will increase out of the south southeast this
afternoon between 5-10 kt with NE winds at kmss around 5-8 kt.

Outlook...

Friday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Friday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
shra, slight chance tsra.

Saturday:VFR. Chance shra, chance tsra.

Saturday night: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance
shra, chance tsra.

Sunday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra, chance
tsra.

Sunday night: mainlyVFR, with local ifr possible. Slight chance
shra.

Monday: mainlyVFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance shra.

Btv watches warnings advisories
Vt... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Larocca
near term... Larocca neiles
short term... Hastings
long term... Hastings
aviation... Larocca


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45166 8 mi33 min N 1.9 G 3.9 73°F 76°F58°F

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi40 minVar 310.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F57°F55%1014.3 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi37 minN 010.00 miFair81°F61°F52%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS84W535CalmNW5N9NW5CalmNW4NW6NW4W5NW6NW5NW6NW4N7N33NE6E53
1 day agoSE11SE18
G25
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G22
SE10SE9SE4SE3S3SE3S4SE443344SW5S4S4SE5SE6SE5SE8SE8
2 days agoE6E6E5E6E5CalmCalmCalmW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5SE12
G16
S8S6S9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.