Sunday, December15, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chazy, NY

Version 3.4
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10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 4:15PM Sunday December 15, 2019 7:27 AM EST (12:27 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 11:26AM Illumination 86% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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SLZ024 Expires:201912151015;;805634 Fzus61 Kbuf 150529 Glfsl Forecast For The Saint Lawrence River Including The Thousand Islands Region National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 1229 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019 Slz022-024-151015- Saint Lawrence River From Cape Vincent To Saint Regis 1229 Am Est Sun Dec 15 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Overnight..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west. Snow showers.
Sunday..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Cloudy.
Sunday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny.
Monday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming light and variable. A chance of snow.
Tuesday..East winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A chance of snow during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers.
Thursday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less. Mostly cloudy, then becoming partly cloudy.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chazy, NY
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location: 44.83, -73.39     debug


Area Discussion for - Burlington, VT
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FXUS61 KBTV 151132 AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 632 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. Gusty westerly winds are expected today across the North Country, along with scattered mountain snow showers. A few inches of additional snowfall can be expected, as temperatures slowly drop back into the 20s and 30s. Winds generally 20 to 35 mph with localized gusts up to 50 mph possible, which may cause a few isolated power outages. Quieter weather returns for Monday, before light snow returns for Tuesday and potential snow squalls on Wednesday of this upcoming week. Temperatures will be near seasonable levels to start the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 618 AM EST Sunday . Have updated fcst with several changes based on crnt and expected conditions. First was to expand likely pops and increase qpf/snowfall across the southern Green Mountains near Killington. The combination of strongly aligned westerly flow and colder air moving over Lake Ontario, expecting lake effect snow showers to travel downwind of the lake today. In addition, as this moisture is lifted along the spine of the Greens, some localized enhanced precip/snowfall is possible. Latest snow grids have up to 4 inches across eastern Rutland.

Next change was to increase timing of stronger wind gusts as gusty winds have developed a little faster than originally anticipated. Already have seen gust to 54 mph at Mendon, 53 mph at Ellenburg and 51 mph at Johnson. Otherwise, wind advisory looks good with localized gusts in the favorable eastern downslope regions up to 50 mph.

Winter wx advisory continues for dacks as upslope flow continues with additional snow showers persisting. Additional snowfall of 1 to 2 inches possible, combined with gusty winds will create areas of blowing and drifting snow, especially as snow becomes lighter with colder profiles.

Previous discussion: Winter weather advisory continues for storm total snowfall of 3 to 5 inches of snow for the northern Adirondacks in New York until 18z.

Wind advisory in effect through 00z Monday for eastern Adirondacks and portions of central, eastern, and northern Vermont, including the NEK for localized gusts up to 50 mph and potential isolated power outages.

Sfc analysis shows powerful 974mb low pres quickly lifting toward eastern Canada, while brisk westerly winds prevail across our fa. Back edge of deformation precip is lifting acrs northern NY, with a transition to upslope/trrn focused snow showers will evolve this morning. Little change in storm total snowfall anticipated with 3 to 5 inches northern Dacks and 2 to 4 inches northern Greens through 18z today.

Winds will be gusty from the west today, especially as deeper mixing develops under moderate llvl caa. Soundings show top of the mixed layer winds of 45 to 55 knots, while bottom values of 35 to 40 knots, which with perpendicular cross barrier/mtn flow will result in localized gusts to 50 mph today. The strongest winds will occur in the favorable downslope regions of the eastern Dacks and on the east side of the Green Mtns and Worcester Range in VT. The core of strongest 850 to 925mb winds occurs btwn 09z this morning and 18z today, but best mixing is from 15z-21z, which will represent the best time period for localized gusts to 50 mph. A few isolated power outages are possible, along with some small shallow rooted trees, especially given saturated soils.

Moderate caa continues as 925mb temps range btwn -4c to 0c at 12z this morning, but quickly drop btwn -7c to -11c by 00z this evening, as a result of gusty westerly winds. Have the general idea of falling temps in the grids, with values starting in the 30s to near 40f, but dropping into the teens and upper 20s by evening. Any lingering snow will dissipate by tonight, as moisture profiles decrease and weak sfc high pres builds into our fa. Expect partly cloudy skies with temps dropping back single digits to near 20f, warmest values near Lake Champlain. Monday is relatively quiet with slightly below normal temps and much lighter winds.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 332 AM EST Sunday . For Monday night, increasing clouds with lows in the lower 20s to mid teens. Heading into Tuesday, forecast guidance has trended slower and further south with regards to the surface low track. Where models disagree this evening is how far the precipitation shield extends north. One thing our region will be combating is low- level dry air. At the time of the best saturation in the dendritic growth zone towards Tuesday morning, there will be low-level dry air in place with subsidence as well. Anticipate virga to begin the day on Tuesday. Once the lower levels become adequately saturated late morning/early afternoon, we should begin to see snow fall across most areas, though the St. Lawrence Valley will be the most likely to miss out.

Seeing several mixed signals with regards to the snow ratios. The Cobb technique indicates values close to 15:1, and the depth of the dendritic growth zone is nearly 5000ft. However, the aforementioned dry air initially will result in some sublimation, and by the time everything becomes well saturated, the better vertical motion starts to exit the region.

The latest forecast amounts still looks good for 2"-4" across south- Central Vermont with pockets of 5" possible and then 2" or less, especially as you head northwest towards the St. Lawrence Valley. Highs will top out in the mid 20s to near 30.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 332 AM EST Sunday . Wednesday will begin as a rather benign day, but that will quickly change as a strong upper low that is nearly pushing sub 500hPa heights advects into the region. A clipper low will deepen as it moves southeastward towards BTV and draws moisture from Lake Ontario ahead of it. Forcing should be vigorous ahead of the strong baroclinic zone from the strong cold air behind it. Forecast soundings are certainly impressive. It will not be long before this event falls within the scope of higher resolution models, and it will be closely monitored, as snow squall potential already looks quite high.

Behind the system, very cold temperatures with lows in the single digits above and below zero and highs struggling to get into the teens for a couple days. We will moderate over the weekend with very dry conditions behind the polar front.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Through 12Z Monday . Strong and gusty westerly winds will continue today at 20 to 30 knots and localized gusts up to 35 to 40 knots likely. Areas of moderate turbulence likely given cross runway flow at btv and winds perpendicular to the trrn across all our taf sites.IFR conditions from the combination of low cigs and occasional snow showers with vis btwn 1-2sm will prevail at SLK most of the day. Scattered snow showers may impact the Rut terminal as lake moisture is advected downwind of Lake Ontario on gusty westerly winds. Brief periods of mvfr/ifr vis with mainly mvfr cigs prevailing at Rut. Elsewhere, vfr conditions with occasional mvfr cigs at btv/mpv/mss and pbg. Winds decrease by sunset with all sites trending toward vfr overnight.

Outlook .

Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN. Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SHSN. Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance SHSN. Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

MARINE. Lake wind advisory has been issued for west winds of 15 to 25 knots with localized gusts up to 30 knots possible. Winds should weaken this afternoon as powerful low pressure shifts away from the region. Wave generally in the 1 to 3 foot range, given the short fetch associated with the westerly wind component.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. VT . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for VTZ003-004- 006>008-010-012. NY . Wind Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ031-034. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ029>031.

SYNOPSIS . Taber NEAR TERM . Taber SHORT TERM . Haynes LONG TERM . Haynes AVIATION . Taber MARINE .


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Plattsburgh International Airport , NY13 mi34 minW 7 G 1810.00 miUnknown Precip37°F28°F73%994.3 hPa
Franklin County State Airport, VT17 mi32 minW 12 G 2510.00 miOvercast39°F31°F75%993.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPBG

Wind History from PBG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW5NW3N6N5N5N3CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmSE3SE6S3SW14
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2 days agoSW3W6SW7--Calm3E5E4CalmCalmCalmCalmS4CalmS5S8S6S8S11S12
G21
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Tide / Current Tables for Sorel, Quebec
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Sorel
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Sun -- 07:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:03 AM EST     1.32 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 01:24 PM EST     1.30 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:07 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 05:02 PM EST     1.31 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:49 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.31.3

Tide / Current Tables for Islets Perces, Quebec
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Islets Perces
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Sun -- 01:07 AM EST     0.73 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 07:27 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:40 AM EST     0.76 meters High Tide
Sun -- 10:28 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 02:55 PM EST     0.73 meters Low Tide
Sun -- 04:06 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 06:06 PM EST     0.74 meters High Tide
Sun -- 07:48 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.70.70.70.70.80.80.80.80.80.80.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.70.7

Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Burlington, VT (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Burlington, VT
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.