St. Paul Park, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Paul Park, MN

June 14, 2024 6:18 PM CDT (23:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 9:01 PM
Moonrise 12:37 PM   Moonset 12:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Paul Park, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 142016 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms likely Saturday and Saturday night with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- An intense heat wave will build across the eastern third of the country next week with the Upper Midwest on its western periphery. This will mean periods of hot and humid conditions and multiple rounds of thunderstorms with the potential for severe weather and heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Gorgeous afternoon continues across MN and western WI with temepratures ranging in the mid to upper 70s and and light winds. Satellite showing mainly widespread diurnal cu across much of MN/WI although a few bands of cirrostratus are beginning to make there way into southwestern MN. That area of cloud cover is part of the shortwave that will eject from the four corners region later tonight. As this shortwave approaches, a 40kt LLJ will increase moisture transport across the area.
PWAT values are forecast to increase near 2.0" throughout Saturday and Saturday night. Forecast soundings continue to support an environment that is not conducive for strong convection initially, but more so highlighting the threat of moderate to heavy rainfall. Considering the track of this low pressure system's core is progged across IA, southern/eastern MN and western WI have a favorable chance of seeing 1-2 inches of precip. Therefore a slight chance of excessive rainfall has been issued by the WPC for those areas. Behind the main more widespread rain late Saturday night, elevated instability alongside steeper lapse rates will increase. CAM guidance hint at the development of thunderstorms capable of producing a potential for hail. Another concern with these storms is the heightened flood risk on top of the rainfall just received earlier.

For Sunday, to simply put it, its going to be hot and humid. The shortwave that provided all the rainfall will depart to the east and upper-level ridging takes hold. Guidance now showing with confidence that the thermal ridge off to our west will advect in overhead during the daytime hours. The aforementioned LLJ will not weaken and continue to bring only greater moisture transport up well into the the northern plains. Currently h925 temps showing a 25-27C increase which indicates surface highs will range in the lower 90s. Dew points will reach the lower 70s and force heat indices to 95-100 degrees. With each forecast run, heat headlines across the TC Metro may be necessary for Sunday.
A frontal boundary will track across MN/WI sunday afternoon/evening. Forecast soundings continue to show an EML with steep lapse rates that should inhibit any convective development. However, should the frontal boundary be able to overtake the cap, we could see conditional risk of strong thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. The front will stall Sunday evening and the EML will begin to weaken at the same time the cap erodes. So some thunder potential remains and aligns with the SPC Convective Outlook Sunday evening. Flooding concerns will continue Sunday night as the LLJ increases to 50 kts and leading to training development along the frontal boundary.

Next week's forecast continues to look very active with several chances of rainfall and potentially severe weather. A trough over the CO Rockies will begin to lift Monday or Tuesday. At this time, numerous shortwaves will eject off of the broader trough providing continued rain/storm chances throughout next week. To our east, upper-level ridging will continue to deepen well into Quebec thus allowing for intense heat and humidity to reach the Great Lakes and the Ohio River Valley. Depending on the location of the western periphery of the ridge, some of the intense heat may encroach west into MN. Specific temperatures are still uncertain as confidence between ensemble members deviates but what is known is continued flooding concerns across the region given a strong LLJ and noticeably high PWATs.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 112 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

Aviation...VFR with rainfall arriving by tomorrow morning.
Other than the diurnal cu field this afternoon, cigs will becoming BKN to OVC tonight as our next system arrives from SW to NE across all sites. Rainfall is most likely to pester RWF and MKT early tomorrow morning before becoming more widespread tomorrow afternoon. Rainfall could be heavy at times, especially for our southern sites thus impacts to flight categories are possible. Winds will begin NW'ly then shift to SE'ly by this evening. Winds will increase in speed tomorrow morning once the system arrives with gusts reaching 20-25kts.

KMSP...Not much chance in the near term for regarding the TAF. Still expecting the NW'ly winds to shift SE'ly by 00z. Aside from few afternoon 050 clouds, the more prevalent cloud cover develops overnight but should remain in VFR. Rain chances increase through the morning hence the introduction of PROB30. Rainfall will becoming likely after 21z. Rainfall could be heavy at times and may require MVFR vsby but was reluctant to include this period due to heaviest rainfall timing. Winds tomorrow will remain a SE/SSE component and becoming breezy with gusts between 20-25 kts by the afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...Mainly VFR. Slight chc TSRA/MVFR. Wind S 10-15 kts.
MON...MVFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind S at 05-10G15-20 kts.
TUE...MVFR with MVFR/TSRA possible. Wind S at 10-15G25-30 kts.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 315 PM CDT Fri Jun 14 2024

.Hydrology

The extended period of heavy rainfall brings with it a potential return to river flooding in the 5-10 day period, extending to the end of the month on the mainstems. HEFS graphics show the potential threat nicely, and also show the degree of uncertainty with large ranges even within the blue "most likely" band by day 10.
Factors that will determine flood severity (minor vs. moderate or worse) include how fast the rain falls...a number of 6-12 hour periods with less than an inch adding up to 3-5 inches is better than a couple of 2-3 inch events in a short period. We will also need to be wary of a boundary setting up with training storms moving from southwest to northeast over the same area.
In summary, this scenario bears watching closely over the next week, with lots of uncertainty along the way.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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