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FXUS63 KMPX 051205 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 605 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Significantly warmer Wednesday and Thursday, with the potential for record setting highs in the 50s.

- Cooler, more seasonable temperatures for the upcoming weekend, along with a mainly dry forecast.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

Light snow on the backside of yesterday's clipper continues to linger over eastern MN and western WI early this morning. While precip rates haven't been too heavy, periods of 1-2 mile visibilities have been reported from surface stations within the snow. The MSP Airport even managed to pick up 0.6" of snow before midnight. The snow should eventually exit to our southeast near or just after sunrise. Any fog should also burn off during this morning, which will result in a day with highs in the 30s and decreasing clouds. Lows tonight will fall into the low to mid 20s.

Amplified upper-level ridging will build over the western CONUS today push east into the Northern Plains/Upper Great Lakes. This ridge will bring a highly anomalously warm air mass into the Northern Plains, giving us a brief taste of late March/early April weather from Wednesday to Friday. Following previous forecasts, have increased highs during this period by blending in the 75th percentile with the NBM. For Wednesday, the warm air mass will be centered over the Dakotas but the periphery should reach into western MN. While some clouds are likely from WAA, highs across western MN are favored to reach the low 50s. Temperatures will gradually cool towards the east with MSP in the mid 40s and western WI near 40. Winds will also be breezy from the increased southerly flow. Gusts could reach 20-25 mph during the afternoon hours.
Thursday looks to be the warmest and nicest day of the period for the entire area as the ridge centers over MN/WI. Even with the limited daytime heating for this time of year, mostly sunny skies should result in highs in the mid 40s for central MN and western WI to mid 50s in southwestern MN. A 60 or two may even be possible along the Buffalo Ridge. As mentioned previously, the forecast is within striking distance of setting daily record highs for December 7th at MSP, STC, and EAU. Now only if we had a more summer-like sun angle to realize those 11 C 850 hPa temperatures...
Additionally, lows Thursday night are even forecast to struggle to drop below freezing. The ridging is forecast to deamplify a bit by Friday but we should still see highs comfortably in the 40s with a 50 or two in southern MN.

Towards late week, guidance favors a low pressure system developing over the Canadian Prairies and traveling east. While this system looks to be too far north to bring any strong/significant chances of precipitation to our region, it will bring a strong cold front. The timing of arrival for this front is currently Friday night and it should return our weekend temperatures similar to what we started this week. The end of the period and beyond looks pretty benign with only near to slightly above normal temperatures forecast.
Precipitation chances also remain slim as we are stuck in split flow; the jetstream being well to our south. Some long-range guidance does show a small chance of another clipper system the beginning of next week, but this is getting well beyond the usual predictability range of such a feature.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 555 AM CST Tue Dec 5 2023

IFR/MVFR stratus will likely linger most of the day, and possibly overnight, so have delayed the clearing in the TAFs.
Early morning satellite imagery showed an expansive cloud cover with any small breaks in the clouds quickly filling in. Winds will start out north/northwest, but gradually become more westerly later today, and eventually southwesterly overnight.

KMSP...
Light precipitation will end this morning, but IFR/MVFR stratus likely to linger across the terminal through most of the day.
Northerly winds will increase a bit this morning, but then lighten up in the afternoon and become southwest overnight into Wednesday morning. This will bring drier air across the region and should lead to VFR conditions the rest of the week.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR. Wind SSW 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind S 5-10 kts.
FRI...VFR. Wind WNW 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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