Friday, December6, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bloomington, MN

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:34AMSunset 4:34PM Friday December 6, 2019 4:12 AM CST (10:12 UTC) Moonrise 2:05PMMoonset 1:33AM Illumination 70% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloomington, MN
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location: 44.83, -93.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 060911 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 311 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

SHORT TERM. (Today through Saturday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

A large area of low clouds covered the Upper Midwest with pockets of clear skies in central and southern Minnesota. A surface ridge was centered across South Dakota this morning. This ridge will move eastward today, shifting the winds from the northwest, to the west/southwest tonight. Although the atmosphere is quite dry above the boundary layer this morning. The question is whether there is enough mixing in the boundary layer to erode the cloud cover this morning, or until winds shift to the southwest, and more cloud cover begins to spread across the Dakotas, and into western Minnesota this afternoon. The best area of mixing and clearing skies will occur in eastern Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Farther to the west, less mixing and the added cloud cover across the Dakotas will lead to cloudy skies for most of today. Temperatures could be cooler if more cloud cover is expected over the west. Later tonight, the surface ridge will move off to the east. Warmer air will start to move across the Dakotas, and into Minnesota by late tonight, and into Saturday. As models have been too cool lately with highs, or roughly 5 degrees off, so I am increasing temperatures slightly from guidance on Saturday afternoon. At this time, mid to upper 30s are going to be widespread across the southern half of Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Depending upon the amount of cloud cover initially Saturday morning, temperatures could reach the 40s, especially along the Buffalo Ridge.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Dec 6 2019

There's little in the way of change this morning with the long term forecast, with mild weather continuing into Sunday, followed by an abrupt reminder of what the heart of winter feels like in Minnesota and Wisconsin.

On Sunday night and Monday, the highly advertised Alberta Clipper system arrives. GFS and ECMWF models have been quite consistent and persistent with this feature, so confidence remains high in a measurable snowfall and a potentially messy commute to start the week. Progged QPF amounts remain around 0.25-0.35 inches, which doesn't sound like much, but given anticipated snow ratios of 20:1 we look to have the potential for a solid 3-5" snowfall across central MN/WI, with lesser amounts around 1-2" along the Iowa border. Given both GFS and ECMWF models are showing pressure tracks/moisture/forcing relatively consistent with our climatology of the Alberta Clipper archetype that yields 6"+ at KMSP, would be surprised if we don't see at least Advisory amounts. Some blowing snow will be possible as well with strong cold air advection ensuing, mainly from west central into southern MN.

Models are beginning to narrow in on the extent of Arctic air following the clipper, with -22C to -25C 925-850mb temperatures settling in for Tuesday and Wednesday. This will most likely correspond with highs from -5F to +5F on those days. Several days of sub-zero lows are expected as well (Tue-Thu), with Wednesday most likely the coldest morning. Could get within a couple degrees of record lows if we can clear the clouds out.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Dec 5 2019

Extensive MVFR stratus doesn't seem to be going anywhere, contrary to the model guidance. Since there are virtually no improving trends, will hold onto the stratus well into Friday morning before mixing and scattering out late morning. This is a low confidence forecast, however.

KMSP . Cigs should remain MVFR overnight and into Friday morning. It isn't clear if/when the stratus will scatter out, but it's not appearing likely until at least mid morning.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat . VFR. Wind SW 10kts. Sun . VFR/MVFR. IFR/-SN Sun night. Wind SW 10kts bcmg N late. Mon . IFR/SN likely, mainly in the morning. Several inches possible. Wind NNW 10-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. WI . None. MN . None.

SHORT TERM . JLT LONG TERM . LS AVIATION . BORGHOFF


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi20 minNNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds24°F17°F75%1026.5 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi20 minNNW 11 G 1710.00 miFair23°F16°F74%1026.3 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi18 minNW 610.00 miPartly Cloudy27°F19°F75%1025.1 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN14 mi18 minNW 1010.00 miFair25°F21°F86%1025.1 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN16 mi20 minNW 1310.00 miMostly Cloudy26°F18°F71%1026.4 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN18 mi20 minNW 1010.00 miA Few Clouds22°F15°F75%1026.6 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi18 minWNW 910.00 miOvercast25°F19°F80%1025.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSP

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4SE6SE4SE5SE6SE5S6E3CalmCalmW5NW8NW7NW7NW10N14
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1 day agoW5SW4SW6W4SW5W5NW10NW12NW11NW10NW8W7W6W5W4SW3SW3CalmSW4W3CalmSW4E4Calm
2 days agoW3SW5SW5W5W4W5W9W5W10W9W7W9
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.