Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bloomington, MN

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 8:18PM Saturday August 17, 2019 9:38 PM CDT (02:38 UTC) Moonrise 8:40PMMoonset 7:09AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloomington, MN
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location: 44.83, -93.31     debug


Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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Fxus63 kmpx 172307
afdmpx
area forecast discussion
national weather service twin cities chanhassen mn
607 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019

Update
Issued at 603 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
updated to include 00z aviation discussion below.

Short term (this evening through Sunday night)
issued at 313 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
confidence is high that we will see a line of thunderstorms work
across southern mn and western wi tonight. These storms are
expected to move into western mn around 9 10pm tonight. When
they get to the state, the combination of its parent mid level
wave taking on a negative tilt and a strong push of dry air from
the west will help accelerate these storms across the area, with
30-40 kt storm motions likely. Though we do see favorable severe
parameters, with MUCAPE in excess of 2k j kg in southern mn and
effective bulk shear of 30-40 kts, the time of day will be a
limiting factor in the severe threat. Current expectations is that
this will be a primarily "sps event", with plenty of wind gusts
of 40-50mph and some hail up to penny size. However, with things
like cell mergers, temporary bowing segments, and other mesoscale
factors, we'll likely see a few storms briefly pulse up into
severe levels, but a widespread significant severe weather event
is not expected and the day 1 SPC convective outlook of a slight
risk south of i-94 in mn adequately covers our severe potential
tonight.

Behind this line of storms, we'll actually see some cold
advection, which means will likely have a band of stratocu in
its wake that will clear out from west to east Sunday morning,
leaving behind a beautiful Sunday afternoon with temperatures in
the 70s and low humidity. The dry air we see coming in on Sunday
will have two impacts for Sunday night. With high pressure moving
overhead, we'll see light winds and clear skies, so excellent
radiational cooling conditions will allow temperatures to drop
into the 50s Monday morning, with some pockets getting into the
upper 40s as well. That dry air coming in on Sunday also looks to
limit the fog potential Monday morning, with just some patchy fog
expected in western wi near bodies of water and in river valleys,
so nothing widespread.

Long term (Monday through Saturday)
issued at 313 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
high pressure resides over the region Monday, with dry conditions
and warmer temperatures expected as southerly flow picks up on
the backside of the high. A cold front drops south through the
upper midwest overnight Monday night into Tuesday, but the chances
widespread precipitation along the front look to be decreasing as
the forcing from the upper-level low remains well to our north,
and models have trended much weaker with a shortwave over southern
minnesota iowa. Some isolated to scattered activity along the
front still looks possible but precipitation amounts should be
light, and I would not be surprised to see most of the CWA remain
dry.

Cool canadian high pressure moves in behind this front, with dry
conditions and below-normal temperatures expected Wednesday and
Thursday. Warmer temperatures are expected Friday into Saturday as
the high settles over the eastern us and southerly flow picks up
on the back side. The GFS and ECMWF have both trended warmer and
more humid Saturday with highs in the upper 80s and the GEFS eps
ensemble means show this potential as well. However, they are both
the two warmest outliers out of the synoptic models so will stay
close to the blended guidance until this tend becomes more
established. Precipitation chances increase as well as the jet
stream oscillates over the upper midwest, but confidence in timing
of any jetstreak shortwaves remains low so will keep pops low.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Sunday evening)
issued at 603 pm cdt Sat aug 17 2019
high confidence on probability of convection thru all TAF sites,
just a matter of timing. Have nearly no change in timing compared
to 18z set. Already into northwest mn and will move into central
mn by 02z then continue to steadily progress eastward thru the
evening and early morning hours. Ifr conditions likely with the
thunderstorms themselves. Behind the storms, a period of MVFR-to-
ifr ceilings likely around and thru daybreak then progressive
clearing during the day tomorrow. Winds will shift from southerly
this evening to NW tomorrow with some gustiness likely, especially
during thunderstorms.

Kmsp... Still looking for best timing to be 07z-10z (so an
overnight event with low traffic numbers). MVFR ceilings,
including under 1700ft, likely during the Sunday morning push then
gradual improvement thru the day.

Outlook for kmsp
mon...VFR. Slight chc -tsra MVFR late. Wind S 5-10 kts.

Tue...VFR. Slight chc -tsra MVFR early. Wind N 10-15 kts.

Wed...VFR. Wind NW 5-10 kts.

Mpx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Mn... None.

Update... Jpc
short term... Mpg
long term... Eta
aviation... Jpc


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Minneapolis, Minneapolis-St. Paul International Airport, MN6 mi45 minSE 810.00 miPartly Cloudy75°F62°F64%1006.1 hPa
Minneapolis - Flying Cloud Airport, MN9 mi45 minSE 710.00 miFair73°F63°F71%1005.9 hPa
South St. Paul Municipal-Richard E. Flemi, MN9 mi43 minSE 410.00 miFair74°F60°F63%1006.8 hPa
Minneapolis, Airlake Airport, MN14 mi1.7 hrsSE 310.00 miFair75°F66°F74%1007.4 hPa
Downtown Holman Field, MN16 mi45 minSE 610.00 miFair73°F61°F66%1006.2 hPa
Minneapolis, Crystal Airport, MN18 mi45 minSE 710.00 miFair76°F61°F60%1005.9 hPa
Minneapolis / Blaine, MN23 mi53 minSE 610.00 miClear75°F60°F61%1006.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMSP

Wind History from MSP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW7SW6SW6SW7SW5SW3CalmS63CalmSE3SW10S8S76SE12S8SE9S10S9SE11SE6SE8
1 day agoSE7S5S8S5S8W6SW5SW8SW9W9W11W6W10W9NW9
G17
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2 days agoE3S3CalmSW3SW3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SE3SE54SE5S5SE9S8S11SW8SW8S8E9SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Twin Cities, MN (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Minneapolis, MN
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.