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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1229 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday morning...
Rest of today..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt late. Gusts up to 35 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft. Rain likely early this afternoon, then isolated showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm early this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..W winds around 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.

ANZ100 1229 Pm Est Mon Dec 11 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm a significant storm brings gusty winds through today with storm force winds expected across the outer waters south of penobscot bay and gales elsewhere. During the day today winds shift to westerly and will remain quite gusty. Fair conditions towards the latter half of the week will allow winds and seas to gradually diminish.

FXUS61 KCAR 111759 AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1259 PM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

SYNOPSIS
Intensifying low pressure will track across eastern Maine today then pull a cold front off the coast tonight. High pressure will build in from the west late tonight then slide south of the region on Tuesday. A cold front will cross the area Wednesday.
High pressure will build south of the region Thursday into Friday with a cold front crossing the area Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
12:59PM UPDATE...Significant changes with headlines and what is happening across Eastern and Northern Maine. The frontal boundary and low pressure are on the move allowing for cold air advection across much of the CWA except Downeast areas. Winds are shifting NW and temperatures will begin falling in eastern and southern zones as the boundary slides east. Rain/Snow mixing now into portions of Route 11 to Eastern Aroostook. Expecting rain to change to snow as temperatures and dew points fall to freezing allowing for Wet Bulb processes to take place. Snow continues across portions of the North Woods with another light snow band rotating east from Western Maine mountains and Quebec.
Opted to expand the Winter Weather Advisory into the Moosehead Region for the sake of travel. Up to 1 inch of wet snow and temperatures falling below freezing will likely cause refreeze and slick travel on untreated surfaces. The Winter Storm Warning remains in place across the North Woods into the St. John Valley where wet snow continues but the challenge has been getting the accumulating snow to work eastward into Fort Kent and Frenchville to produce higher totals. The Flood Watch remains in place with runoff continuing in many locations.
Numerous reports of flooding from Penobscot, Hancock and Washington counties where active Flood Advisories and Warnings continue. Lastly, trimmed the High Wind Warning to just Coastal Washington county where we continue to get some gusts 40-50mph ahead of the boundary but will be ending soon. On the water changed headlines noted below...

Prev discussion blo...
998mb sfc low has moved into the wrn portion of the Gulf of Maine as of 09z this morning. Best 3-hrly pressure falls look to be right along the coast and expect low center will move twd the coast this morning. 00z guidance and all hires cams have continued to shift low track further to the south, including the 06z NAM which has shifted it even further to the south.

06z sounding out of CAR indicates 00z GFS has best handle on thermal profile at this time and have based the rain/snow line on this idea for this afternoon. Given the shift to the south have honed in on a bullseye of 4-5 inches of rain around a line from about Bucksport to Topsfield. This rain will all fall on partially frozen ground and with elevated instability developing this morning any storms will be able to produce locally heavy rainfall on top of what is already a very dynamic system.

With the low center shifting south models have trended slightly lower on qpf across the northwest in cold air where heavy snowfall is a concern. The highest snowfall totals look to remain out of the population centers in the St. John Valley and have shifted back toward the Canadian border where 6-9 inches of snow may fall this morning. Snow will initially be heavy and wet and with northwest winds gusting in cold air advection cannot rule out power outages and damage to trees in this area of the North Woods, thus have continued the Winter Storm Warning for today. The Winter Weather Advisory for nrn Piscataquis remains in effect though advisory accums look to remain confined to the very far nw tip of the county cannot rule out more qpf developing in right front quad of H3 speed max lifting thru btwn 15z-18z.

Moving on from ptype the next concern is the winds. With boundary remaining south of what was initially expected this has shifted the main core of the low-lvl jet to the southeast.
Cadillac Mountain on MDI is gusting to 55mph with MDI routinely gusting to over 35 mph attm. Further to the east along the Washington County coast winds are gusting above 30mph. Expect winds to pick up through the morning and into the afternoon hours as llj starts to punch in. Have trimmed the high wind warning south to just include coastal Hancock and central and coastal Washington counties. Wind advisory is now in effect for interior Hancock and nrn Washington county though if low center were to track right over this area there will be very little wind to speak of.

For tonight expect scattered snow showers across the north with upr trof swinging thru tonight. Temps drop below freezing with fropa occurring tonight. Temps drop below frzg to the south of the I95 corridor into interior Downeast this evening and temps along the coast look to drop below frzg just before midnight.
Chances of the gusty winds drying the roads over Downeast into the Bangor Region is pretty slim with widespread 3-5 inch amounts forecast to fall. Therefore will likely need a special weather statement for black ice tonight.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
High pressure will build south of the area Tuesday as a weak shortwave upper ridge crosses our area. This will bring a mostly sunny day over the region. However, clouds may begin to increase over western and northern areas Wednesday afternoon as a trough sliding across central Canada begins to draw a bit of moisture into the area. Highs from the upper 20s north to the mid to upper 30s Downeast will be near normal. Low pressure, both surface and aloft, will be tracking well north of the area Tuesday night. This will bring a mostly cloudy sky north and a partly cloudy sky south with a westerly breeze south of the low keeping the air mixed. Some spotty snow showers will be possible over the far north as moisture from the system brushes the northern part of the area.

The low to our north will pull a cold front across the region early Wednesday morning. Gusty northwesterly winds will follow with the sky remaining mostly cloudy north to sunny to partly cloudy south.
Cold air will will be quicker to surge in aloft than it does near the surface. Steep lapse rates from the surface up to around 8K ft may result in some snow showers over the north. Banded snow showers including a line of snow showers along the convergence southeast of the Laurentian Mountains of Quebec may be present midday into the afternoon Wednesday. Open water on the St. Lawrence combined with saturated ground from the recent rain will likely contribute moisture to the boundary layer potentially enhancing snow showers.
An isolated heavier snow shower or squall can't be ruled out.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
Low pressure sliding into Eastern Quebec combined with high pressure building into the Mid-Atlantic region will maintain a gusty northwesterly wind Wednesday night. Any snow showers over the north will diminish. The sky will be partly cloudy north and mostly clear south. High pressure settling well to the south will maintain a gusty westerly wind Thursday into Thursday night with more clouds north and less clouds south. A breeze will continue on Friday with the high along the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure stalled over northern Quebec. Some relatively milder air circulating in around the back side of the high will bring a partly to mostly cloudy sky north with a mostly clear sky over the south. High pressure and weak upper ridging will build in to the area Friday night into Saturday. A weak cold front will cross the area Friday night. High pressure should then bring plenty of sunshine on Saturday.

Looking ahead to early next week, the general pattern favoring a northern branch shortwave well to our north with periodic shortwaves rippling along this branch, and a southern branch jetstream with a low forming in the Gulf of Mexico, will continue. Between the two, we will remain dry. By mid-week, we will have watch the northern branch for the possibility that a shortwave amplifies enough to capture the Gulf low and pull it north. The ECMWF keeps the northern waves too shallow to capture the Gulf Low while the new GFS digs a northern branch wave into the southeast lifting the Gulf low north and bringing another soaking rain early next week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
NEAR TERM: IFR at BHB this morning in heavy rain at times. LLWS at FL020 will approach 70kts from the south from now until around 11am.

BGR will see IFR in rain until early afternoon before slowly improving to MVFR after 19z.

HUL, PQI and CAR will see IFR/LIFR in heavy rain into the afternoon before going over to snow around 18z at CAR and PQI and 21z at HUL. PQI and HUL likely to improve to VFR after 04z with CAR remaining MVFR after 00z through end of TAF valid time.

FVE likely to see rasn mix between 12z and 15z. IFR continues until 22z before improving to MVFR in cigs and lingering snow showers.

SHORT TERM: Tuesday...VFR. Gusty W wind

Tuesday night...VFR except possibly MVFR at times over the far north. Gusty SW wind.

Wednesday...VFR south. MVFR north with isolated IFR in snow showers.
Gusty W wind.

Wednesday night...VFR. Gusty NW wind.

Thursday...VFR, possibly lowering to MVFR at times north. Gusty SW wind.

Thursday night...VFR. Gusty SW wind.

Friday...VFR. Gusty SW wind.

MARINE
NEAR TERM: Update. Dropped the Storm Warning to SCA on the western waters and intra-coastal. Dropped the Storm Warning to Gale Warning on the Eastern Waters to the Hague Line. Gusts will continue to slowly come down but significant wave height likely for next 6-12hrs.

Previous Discussion...
Have dropped intracoastal zone down to Gale Warnings with storm warnings remaining over the outer waters. Winds on the outer waters will drop to gales this evening, and eventually SCA level winds after midnight. Seas will remain elevated throughout the period.

SHORT TERM: A SCA will likely be needed Tuesday night through Thursday for gusty WNW winds. Winds may reach gale over the Offshore waters Wednesday night. A SCA may be needed again Friday for gusty WSW winds. Seas may be up to 7 to 8 ft Wednesday night into Thursday subsiding after Thursday.

HYDROLOGY
Melting snowpack and heavy rainfall to pose a hydrologic threat across a large portion of Eastern and Northern Maine. Ice is present on some of the rivers but will not be that big of a concern. There is frazil and pancake ice that has frozen in place on the St. John and Aroostook River basins along with other smaller creeks and streams across much of the CWA. We saw significant compaction and melting of the snowpack across Maine today. Frost depth here at NWS Caribou is 3 inches and is generally 1 to 4 inches across the CWA. In this snow remaining we generally see 0.5 to 1.0 inches of SWE that is likely to melt with this event.

The combination of heaviest rainfall, SWE melting and the partially frozen grounds corresponds to a flood threat on small creeks and streams. The Piscataquis River which is prone to rapid rises and has a complex terrain in the basin is likely to experience minor flooding. In addition, large rivers will experience rises Monday into Tuesday AM before cresting which could send some locations into action stage. Not expecting flooding at this time, however highly isolated issues may occur as rivers approach bankfull. Lastly, urban and poor drainage flooding is possible with excessive rainfall and potentially clogged drains.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
The high tide near 9AM Monday morning represents the biggest risk for any coastal flooding and wave runup issues. There are two mitigating factors. First, it is not a particularly high astronomical tide. Second, peak surge is about 4 to 5 hours after the high tide based on current projections. In this scenario, wave runup becomes the primary concern. Seas approaching 10-16 ft could deposit rocks on roads exposed to the open ocean. That includes Mount Desert Island locations such as Seawall Road and coastal roads on the Schoodic Peninsula.
Have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the high tide this morning.

CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ001- 003.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ004- 010.
Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for MEZ005-006-011-015>017- 029>032.
High Wind Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for MEZ030.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ050.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ051-052.

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Hampden
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Mon -- 03:06 AM EST     1.46 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EST     13.85 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:46 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:54 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:57 PM EST     12.14 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Bangor
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Mon -- 03:07 AM EST     1.66 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:43 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:49 AM EST     14.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:34 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 03:47 PM EST     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:53 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 09:25 PM EST     12.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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