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ANZ151 Penobscot Bay- 1039 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Overnight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..E winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less.
Wed night..S winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 foot or less, then around 2 ft after midnight.
Thu..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Thu night..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..S winds around 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..S winds around 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sat..SE winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Sat night..SE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Showers likely.

ANZ100 1039 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for stonington me to merrimack river ma out to 25 nm high pressure remains in control of the waters until the end of the work week. A front passing well to the north will turn winds more southwesterly before shifting back to offshore later Tuesday. SWell will continue to diminish as well. Late in the week deeper southerly flow and chances for rain return to the gulf of maine.

FXUS61 KGYX 030240 AFDGYX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gray ME 1040 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Well above normal temperatures continue into the second half of this week with the peak of the warmth occurring tomorrow. High pressure that will continue this warm weather will begin to shift offshore Thursday into Friday. An upper trough moving through the Great Lakes will send a dynamic system into the area Friday night through Sunday morning. Behind this system conditions will be cooler and unsettled as an upper low lingers over the Northeast.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
1040 PM Update...Very little change to the going forecast.
Lowered mins a tad at the better radiators but that's it.

640 PM Update...No changes to the going forecast. A mostly clear and relatively mild evening will be had. Ground fog, especially in river valleys will develop overnight, especially across western zones.

Previously...

Surface ridge axis centered overhead tonight allowing for clear skies and strong radiational cooling. Opted for the coolest of guidance once again...and adjusted the favored valleys down a degree or two. Also expecting plenty of valley fog again tonight...and included patchy dense wording for the CT River and most of the northern valleys.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Very warm day in store for Tue...as anomalous warm temps spill over the top of the ridge. H8 temps are forecast to be around +16 C. While mixing to this level would yield temps in the upper 80s...lower level temps are still plenty warm as well. With 925 mb temps near +20 C...there is solid support for widespread lower 80s. See Climate section below for information on record high temps for the day.

Overnight a cold front will brush northern ME. I do not anticipate any shower activity making it into the forecast area...but increased cloud cover and gradient flow mixing the lowest levels should keep temps a little warmer than past nights. This may also disrupt fog formation across parts of central ME...so I have included fog mention only in the western river valleys.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Warm and dry weather will continue Wednesday and Thursday under high pressure. High pressure shifts east Thursday night and Friday as an upper trough digs into the Great Lakes region. Friday looks to remain mostly dry followed by the upper trough sending a frontal system across the region over the weekend. This frontal system will bring chances for widespread rain most likely around Saturday. The upper trough closes off Sunday with an upper low lingering over the area into the following work week for cooler and unsettled conditions.

Guidance has backed off a bit on the cooling brought about by a back door front Wednesday. Highs still look to climb into the 70s to low 80s with the coastal plain likely seeing highs a bit lower than on Tuesday. The center of high pressure shifts offshore Thursday with southerly flow increasing around the back side of the high. It will remain dry Thursday with highs in the 70s.

Moisture advection will increase on Friday ahead of a deepening trough moving into the Great Lakes. Chances for precipitation still look to arrive late Friday with another mild day in store with overcast skies. The upper trough will send a frontal system into New England Friday night into Saturday with a cold front crossing the area on Sunday. This system will involve good dynamics with the trough going negative tilt and the right rear entrance region of an upper jet in the vicinity of New England. These dynamics along with a plume of high PWATs will bring the potential for moderate to heavy rain with ensemble means showing at least 1 inch of rain across much of the area with upwards of 2 inches in the mountains. Some drying looks to occur south of the mountains behind the cold front on Sunday while the upper trough closes off to the west of New England.
This upper low will linger into the upcoming work week for cooler conditions with chances of showers and possibly some snow showers at the highest elevations in the White Mountains.

AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Short Term...Widespread VFR will give way to valley fog and LIFR conditions again tonight. LEB and HIE are most likely to see fog develop
while lesser chances exist at AUG
MHT...and CON. VFR returns Tue
Fog is possible once again Tue night
but a front passing nearby may lead to enough mixing that it remains confined to the deeper valleys like the CT River.

Long Term...VFR will likely prevail during the day time hours Wednesday into Friday while night time fog will bring the potential for flight restrictions, most likely in the valleys. A frontal system enters the region Friday night and Saturday bringing the potential for flight restrictions.

MARINE
Short Term...Swell continues to diminish and SCA has been canceled. Winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds thru Tue night.

Long Term...Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds Weds through Friday with increasing southerly flow. An approaching frontal system will likely lead to southerly winds and seas approaching SCA thresholds Friday night into Saturday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING



CLIMATE
High temperatures may approach records on Tuesday. Here are current record highs and year set for Portland, Concord, and Augusta for October 3rd.

Portland - 80 (2002)
Concord - 84 (1967)
Augusta - 79 (1983)

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

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Hampden
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Mon -- 01:37 AM EDT     14.70 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:34 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:39 AM EDT     -0.60 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:52 PM EDT     15.53 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:15 PM EDT     -1.44 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Hampden, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

Bangor
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Mon -- 01:08 AM EDT     15.29 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     -0.65 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:32 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:23 PM EDT     16.24 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:14 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:12 PM EDT     -1.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bangor, Penobscot River, Maine, Tide feet

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