Sunday, May31, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:08AMSunset 8:31PM Sunday May 31, 2020 7:02 PM CDT (00:02 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 309 Pm Cdt Sun May 31 2020
.small craft should exercise caution from this afternoon through this evening...
Late this afternoon..SW wind 10 to 20 kts with a few gusts to 25 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 15 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. Mostly clear.
Monday..S wind 10 to 20 kts. A few gusts to 25 kts possible. Waves 1 to 3 ft building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms, mainly in the afternoon.
Monday night..SW wind 10 to 20 kts. Waves 1 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tuesday..W wind 5 to 15 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. Patchy fog.
LMZ521 Expires:202006010415;;052905 FZUS53 KGRB 312009 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 309 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-010415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 312318 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 618 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Updated aviation portion for 00Z TAF issuance

SYNOPSIS. Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Turning much warmer and more humid the new few days with some showers and thunderstorms at times.

The upper pattern across North America will flatten to a nearly zonal regime the next few days, then undergo reamplification during the latter part of the period. By next weekend we will be back with a pattern similar to what we had a couple days ago-- troughs near the coasts and a mid-continent ridge.

The switch to zonal flow will bring much warmer air from the Plains into the forecast area the next few days. The humidity will increase substantially as well. Temperatures will trend downward by next weekend. How far they fall will depend on exactly how far west the reamplifying ridge sets up, and how sharp it becomes. The pattern will be favorable for AOA normal precipitation during the 7 day period.

SHORT TERM. Tonight and Monday Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

Main focus is on thunderstorms and severe potential for Monday.

Clear blue skies across the area today. Satellite imagery at 19Z showed a thin line of mid-clouds moving into north- central WI which will move across parts of the area this afternoon. Otherwise, expect mainly clear skies to persist through the evening.

Tonight . Cloud cover increases from west to east after midnight as 850 flow backs to the southwest and there is a return of low level moisture. Showers are expected to hold off until Monday morning. With the return of clouds and warmer air, temperatures will initially fall, then likely level off after midnight. Therefore, temperatures will not be as cold tonight, with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Monday . Meso models showing two main rounds of showers/storms to move across the area. The first is associated with an 850 warm front during the mid to late morning. Lighter rain showers seem most likely during the morning as there is not much instability present yet. However, with CAPE values around 100 to 300 J/kg, some isolated thunder is possible. Then, a mid-level shortwave slides across northern WI during the afternoon, which will be the main driver for thunderstorms from about 18Z/01 to 02Z/02. CAPE increases to around 500 to 1500 J/kg, and while forecast soundings show more of a skinny CAPE profile, 30 to 40 kts of sfc to 3km shear and mid-level lapse rates around 7.0 C/km is enough for some strong/severe storms to develop. Large hail is the main threat, but cannot rule out some strong thunderstorm wind gusts as well. With PWats around 1.40 to 1.60 inches locally heavy downpours will also be possible in any showers or storms. The SPC made minimal changes to the Day 2 Outlook for severe storms, current Marginal Risk across most of the GRB forecast area looks reasonable. Meanwhile, high temps will be near normal for June 1, with readings in the 70s for most of the area away from Lake Michigan.

LONG TERM. Monday Night Through Sunday Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

The storms from Monday will probably linger in the east at least early Monday evening before ending. A short period of quiet weather is likely while the forecast area is in the warm sector of a cyclone passing through well north of the area. The chance for thunderstorms will increase again Tuesday evening as a cool front sags south through the area. Low-level flow and convergence near the boundary looks weak, but steep mid-level lapse rates will be present as the remnants of an elevated mixed layer pass across the area. Shear will also be modest. The guidance offered varying ideas on whether storms would fire across northern or central Wisconsin before sagging south with the front. The latter is more likely, though definitely far from certain. Mentioned the severe risk in the HWO. High PWATs (up to 2 SDs above normal) will also support a heavy rainfall threat.

The uncertainty regarding precipitation chances during the remainder of the period is rather high given the zonal flow and then questions as to the exact structure/position of the amplifying upper ridge next weekend.

AVIATION. for 00Z TAF Issuance Issued at 618 PM CDT Sun May 31 2020

VFR flight conditions are expected through the overnight hours. A few high based clouds will affect the TAF sites this evening. Overnight, mid clouds will spread in ahead of the next wave to produce showers and thunderstorms. Light rain showers are possible starting mid morning (after 13Z or so) across central and north- central WI, and starting late morning across the east (after 16Z or so). Cigs will then fall to MVFR to occasional IFR Monday afternoon. Thunderstorms are also possible Monday afternoon and evening.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SYNOPSIS . Skowronski SHORT TERM . KLJ LONG TERM . Skowronski AVIATION . Kurimski


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi80 min S 8 G 9.9 63°F 67°F1022.3 hPa46°F
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi74 min S 15 G 17 52°F 1023.6 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi82 min S 5.1 G 12 64°F 1021.7 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi66 minS 910.00 miFair59°F43°F56%1023.7 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi66 minSW 10 G 1510.00 miFair65°F45°F49%1022.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUE

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE9E9E5E3S3CalmS3S4SW4SW6SW4SW5W5SW7SW4SW7W9W11W14SW11SW11
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1 day agoN7NW11N13NW8NW8NW6N4E4E4CalmCalmCalmCalmN8NW12NW14N13
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2 days agoNW6W5W3NW4N5W4W3CalmNW4NW7N6N8NW8NW7NW9NW9NW10NW8W10NW8NW10NW7NW10NW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.