Thursday, July18, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sturgeon Bay, WI

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Sunrise 5:22AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday July 18, 2019 4:52 PM CDT (21:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:53PMMoonset 6:50AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ521 Green Bay South Of Line From Cedar River To Rock Island Passage And North Of A Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- Green Bay South Of Line From Oconto Wi To Little Sturgeon Bay Wi- 329 Pm Cdt Thu Jul 18 2019
.small craft should exercise caution from early this morning through this evening...
Tonight..SW wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Friday..S wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Friday night..S wind 5 to 10 kts veering W after midnight. Waves 2 ft or less. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight.
Saturday..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Waves 2 ft or less. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
LMZ521 Expires:201907190415;;267904 FZUS53 KGRB 182029 NSHGRB Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Green Bay WI 329 PM CDT Thu Jul 18 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ521-522-190415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sturgeon Bay, WI
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location: 44.87, -87.4     debug


Area Discussion for - Green Bay, WI
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Fxus63 kgrb 182052
afdgrb
area forecast discussion
national weather service green bay wi
352 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

Short term Tonight and Friday
issued at 352 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
several forecast problems to be sorted out over the next 24 hours,
ranging from: location extent of convective complex tonight,
possibility of severe heavy rain, high temperatures and heat index
values on Friday.

The 19z msas surface analysis showed a weak area of low pressure
over central lake mi with a warm front extended east-southeast
across central lower mi. A cold front was located over the
northern plains and various outflow boundaries from thunderstorms
over the region. Radar mosaic indicated the only storms in our
vicinity were over northwest wi as a mid-level shortwave moves
toward northern sections of the great lakes.

Models are getting into better sync with regards to moving the
cold front into the western great lakes region tonight and
stalling this boundary somewhere over central wi after midnight.

Increasing WAA moisture transport will combine with convergence
along the boundary to fire off another round of showers
thunderstorms this evening with the highest pops over central
east-central wi. Far northern wi may escape a good deal of
tonight's convection. The precipitation is forecast to persist
through much of tonight and with pw values of around 2 inches,
heavy rain will be a distinct possibility. This scenario will need
to be watched for potential flooding (i.E., urban small stream or
flash). Since the exact axis of heavier rain is uncertain, have
held off any flood watches at this time. As for severe potential,
0-6km bulk shear of 35-45 knots is more than enough to make up for
weakening instability with a few of the storms becoming strong or
even briefly severe. Torrential downpours and damaging wind gusts
would be the main threats as most of the area remains under a
slight risk of severe weather. Min temperatures to range from the
middle to upper 60s north, to the lower to middle 70s south.

The overnight convection should depart east-central wi Friday
morning, leaving a hot humid air mass over the region for the rest
of Friday. The stalled front should begin to move back north as a
warm front as southwest winds aloft start to increase. Despite a
mid-level cap in place, cannot rule out a small chance of showers
thunderstorms late in the day with the front in the vicinity and a
mid-level shortwave approaching from the west. However, the main
story to be the hot temperatures with readings reaching the middle
80s near lake mi, around 90 degrees north and lower to middle 90s
south. Add in dew points in the upper 60s to middle 70s and we
will have a heat index range from the lower to middle 90s north,
97 to 107 south. Have added marathon, shawano, menominee, oconto
and marinette counties to the heat advisory. After collaboration
with arx and mkx, have cut the end time of the advisory from 11 pm
to 7 pm. Thus, the headline to run from noon to 7 pm Friday.

Long term Friday night through Thursday
issued at 352 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
main forecast concerns during the extended are the severe weather
chances Friday night into Saturday and again Saturday afternoon
and evening. Other highlights in the extended are the upper-level
pattern changing, allowing for more seasonal temperatures and
drier conditions into the middle of next week.

Friday night into Saturday... Even though a zonal mean flow aloft
will remain over the upper mississippi valley through Saturday, a
mid-level disturbance will push into the region from the west on
Friday evening. Depending on how far north this disturbance and
its associated frontal boundary will move on Friday, it is
possible for the southern portions of the forecast area to remain
dry due to capping, with thunderstorms only impacting far northern
wisconsin. However, some model guidance suggests the disturbance
will move across central wisconsin. There is plenty of instability
across the forecast area during this time, with effective shear
values between 30 and 50 knots, with the highest shear values over
far northern wisconsin. Strong to severe storms will be possible
with the main threats being damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

Localized flooding will also be possible. The showers and storms
would likely end after midnight.

Saturday into Sunday... By early Saturday morning, the nearly
stationary frontal boundary will begin shifting further south over
wisconsin. However, since the frontal boundary will extend across
the northern plains, mid-level moisture and f-gen will cause
convection to redevelop along the boundary. Model guidance
indicates a cluster of showers and storms will impact the forecast
area from Saturday morning through midday Saturday. Since
instability will not be as high during this time to cause severe
weather, heavy rain will be the main concern as pwat values will
be approaching 2.0 inches. By Saturday afternoon and evening, the
frontal boundary will continue its trek south across wisconsin.

This will keep the higher chances for showers and storms across
southern wisconsin during this time. This region will also have
the highest instability to allow strong to severe storms. East-
central wisconsin could end up on the edge of this risk for
Saturday evening, with the main concern being heavy rain and
damaging winds. Localized flooding would also be possible.

Showers and storms would come to an end Saturday night.

Rest of the extended... The upper-level pattern will change on
Sunday to a northwest flow, as a strong ridge of high pressure
begins to build across the central u.S. This will cause drier
conditions across the forecast area and seasonal temperatures into
the middle of next week.

Aviation For 18z TAF issuance
issued at 110 pm cdt Thu jul 18 2019
sct to bkn boundary layer cumulus is in place this afternoon for
much of northeast wisconsin within moist southwest flow.

For the majority of the TAF sites, pronounced subsidence inversion
centered at 5.5 kft agl will provide capping for thunderstorm
development during the next 9-12 hours. Exception will be krhi
where vcts is anticipated early in the period 18-20z. Arc of
convergence along the northern periphery of low level jet momentum
release is then expected to result in developing thunderstorm
activity over portions of mn and western wi this evening.

Thunderstorm activity is forecasted to push eastward through
portions of central and northeast wisconsin with the most
favorable timing 05-10z Friday morning. Potential exists for some
minor MVFR fog for central wisconsin TAF sites as winds go light
and variable to the north of the heaviest rainfall rates.

Kosh Bkn-sct MVFR ceiling heights should lift toVFR late this
afternoon as boundary layer matures. Active midlevel subsidence
will limit chances for thunderstorm development through the mid
evening hours. Thunderstorms that develop over southern minnesota
this evening are expected to track eastward through the kosh
terminal between 05-10z tonight. Preference was to include heavy
rain thunderstorm activity in a tempo group 6-10z. Any increase in
forecast confidence on thunderstorm complex may require a
prevailing thunderstorm group. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds the
main threats. Windshifts of interest include variable wind
direction activity tied to thunderstorm cold pool around after
09z Friday and wind shift back to southwest at around 16z Friday.

Grb watches warnings advisories
Heat advisory from noon to 7 pm cdt Friday for wiz013-020-021-
030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.

Short term... ..Kallas
long term... ... Hykin
aviation... ... .Behnke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI 19 mi58 min SSW 9.9 G 17 79°F 75°F1005.5 hPa
45014 20 mi52 min SSW 12 G 14 80°F 74°F1006.4 hPa
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI 23 mi72 min S 6 G 15 77°F 1008.5 hPa
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI 28 mi58 min S 7 G 8.9 65°F 1006.2 hPa
NPDW3 - Northport Pier at Death's Door WI 37 mi32 min S 5.1 G 8.9 80°F 1005.1 hPa

Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Door County Cherryland Airport, WI3 mi56 minSW 810.00 miOvercast78°F71°F79%1006.2 hPa
Menominee - Marinette Twin County Airport, MI21 mi56 minSW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F71°F74%1005.2 hPa

Wind History from SUE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE8E6E6E6E6SE6SE7S7S9S9S9S10S11S9S5CalmE7S5S10S12S9SW11
G18
SW16
G20
SW8
1 day agoCalmSE8S5S4SE3S5CalmCalmCalmNE7E7NE7NE7E7E6E7E6E86E5E7SE7NE7E7
2 days agoS83CalmSE4CalmS6SW8S7N10
G18
W9SW3SE4S4S6SW7SW8SW9W12SW10W8SW10W9SW73

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Green Bay, WI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Green Bay, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.