Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oconto, WI
February 19, 2025 2:13 AM CST (08:13 UTC) Change Location
![]() | Sunrise 6:43 AM Sunset 5:28 PM Moonrise 1:03 AM Moonset 10:21 AM |
LMZ522 Expires:202502070300;;386458 Fzus53 Kgrb 061633 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-070300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
.gale warning in effect until 9 pm cst this evening - .
This afternoon - W wind to around 30 kts with gale force gusts to around 45 kts. Mostly Sunny.
Tonight - W wind 15 to 25 kts. Gusts to around 40 kts decreasing to 30 kts after midnight. Patchy blowing snow.
Friday - W wind 10 to 20 kts. Mostly Sunny in the morning then becoming partly cloudy.
Friday night - W wind 5 to 10 kts veering nw after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy.
wave height forecast omitted for mostly ice covered areas.
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-070300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1033 am cst Thu feb 6 2025
wave height forecast omitted for mostly ice covered areas.
LMZ500
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Area Discussion for Green Bay, WI
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FXUS63 KGRB 190437 AFDGRB
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
UPDATE
Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Clouds have quickly shifted south into northern Wisconsin. Northerly flow should push the clouds over much of north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Indications are the clouds will then diminish late tonight as they shift farther south. The clouds have kept temps warmer over far north-central and northeast WI this evening so far, but temps are starting to drop elsewhere, with lowest readings as of 830 pm around -5F. Though the clouds may effect temp trends into the early overnight for parts of northeast WI, does appear that expected min temps may still occur. Thus, no plans to alter the going Cold Weather Advisory as the areas that were already not in it will be impacted the most by the cloud cover. Will have updated Cold Weather Advisory statement out by 930 pm.
KEY MESSAGES
- Wind chill readings of 15 to 25 below zero are forecast late tonight.
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for central and east- central Wisconsin. These wind chills can cause frostbite in as little as 20 to 30 minutes.
- A warming trend will take place later this week. High temperatures will return to the 20s by Thursday and into the 30s by Sunday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show 1047mb arctic high pressure stretching from Alberta to the southern Great Lakes early this afternoon. With the exception of far northern Wisconsin due to lake effect, most of the state has enjoyed clear conditions so far today. Looking upstream, clouds are streaming in from South Dakota to southern Minnesota while clouds are also increasing across Lake Superior where warm advection is most unusually occurring from the northeast. Forecast concerns mainly revolve around wind chills tonight followed by light snow chances on Wednesday.
Wind Chills Tonight: Strong arctic high pressure will very slowly shift south into the northwest Great Plains, thereby maintaining a modestly tight pressure gradient across the western Great Lakes.
After some gustiness this afternoon, winds will diminish tonight, but the pressure gradient looks to be sufficient to have winds decouple at times, particularly across the northwoods. Clouds will also be increasing from the northeast with help from lake effect into north-central WI where wind trajectories will remain north- northwest. Extent of cloud cover and winds make it difficult to determine the potential for wind chill headlines.
Low temperatures have increased across far northeast WI due to cloud cover. However, given the airmass and deep snow pack, trended temps colder than the NationalBlend, and not far from the NBM 50th percentile. Combined with some moderation of the arctic airmass, do not foresee as cold a night tonight with lows ranging from 5 below to 15 below for most. Combined with a slight 5-10 mph breeze, wind chills will be approaching 20-25 below over central and east-central WI late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Decided to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for central to east- central Wisconsin as wind chills will be right around criteria from about midnight to 9 am.
Snow Chances Wednesday: Broad, upper level low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Warm advection will continue to occur from the north, but deepest moisture should generally reside over the Upper Peninsula and northern Illinois. Therefore, the highest chances for light snow will occur over northern WI where lake effect will help augment the warm advection. It's possible that a few flurries could make into central and east-central WI by late in the afternoon. Up to a half inch of accumulations is possible across the north. Warmer high temperatures ranging through the teens.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Low impact forecast persists for the majority of the extended, in stark contrast to what we've seen over the past week. Main concerns will be front-loaded through the end of the work week as early morning wind chills remain in the single digits below zero.
Otherwise, snow chances remain minimal given a general lack of organized synoptic systems.
Snow chances... Periods of light lake effect snow look to be possible over the far north early on Thursday as winds veer to north/northwesterly along the leading edge of surface high pressure over the northern Plains. Lake surface to 850 mb delta Ts range from around 15 to 18C during this time, with probabilistic guidance showing around a 50 to 70 percent chance of exceeding one inch of snowfall in northern Vilas. Suspect that northerly wind component should keep any snow offshore along/east of the Fox Valley.
Next chances for more widespread snow arrive late this weekend as a warm front ushers in a push of WAA with reinforcement from isentropic ascent. However, snowfall amounts look to be held down to less than an inch as the profile struggles to saturate, with moisture topping out at around 700 mb. Probabilities for receiving one inch of snow range from around 10 to 30 percent area-wide.
Temperatures... Following a prolonged period of abnormal cold, long-range guidance picks up on a signal for a pattern shift to above average temperatures through the end of the month. Return flow settles in across the upper Midwest this weekend as high pressure departs to the east, resulting in temperatures rebounding into the upper 30s. Some areas across central and east-central Wisconsin may even see 40 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This being said, current thinking is that temperatures may underperform slightly due to existing snow pack, although should have a better idea in the coming days.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
MVFR clouds over north-central Wisconsin will settle south through daybreak Wednesday, before MVFR-VFR clouds expand over the rest of the area by midday from north to south. Light snow showers or flurries are possible during the morning over north-central Wisconsin, and in the afternoon north and east of a RRL to OSH line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ018>020- 030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1037 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance
UPDATE
Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Clouds have quickly shifted south into northern Wisconsin. Northerly flow should push the clouds over much of north-central and far northeast Wisconsin. Indications are the clouds will then diminish late tonight as they shift farther south. The clouds have kept temps warmer over far north-central and northeast WI this evening so far, but temps are starting to drop elsewhere, with lowest readings as of 830 pm around -5F. Though the clouds may effect temp trends into the early overnight for parts of northeast WI, does appear that expected min temps may still occur. Thus, no plans to alter the going Cold Weather Advisory as the areas that were already not in it will be impacted the most by the cloud cover. Will have updated Cold Weather Advisory statement out by 930 pm.
KEY MESSAGES
- Wind chill readings of 15 to 25 below zero are forecast late tonight.
A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for central and east- central Wisconsin. These wind chills can cause frostbite in as little as 20 to 30 minutes.
- A warming trend will take place later this week. High temperatures will return to the 20s by Thursday and into the 30s by Sunday.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 122 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
Short Term...Tonight and Wednesday
The latest RAP analysis and satellite/radar imagery show 1047mb arctic high pressure stretching from Alberta to the southern Great Lakes early this afternoon. With the exception of far northern Wisconsin due to lake effect, most of the state has enjoyed clear conditions so far today. Looking upstream, clouds are streaming in from South Dakota to southern Minnesota while clouds are also increasing across Lake Superior where warm advection is most unusually occurring from the northeast. Forecast concerns mainly revolve around wind chills tonight followed by light snow chances on Wednesday.
Wind Chills Tonight: Strong arctic high pressure will very slowly shift south into the northwest Great Plains, thereby maintaining a modestly tight pressure gradient across the western Great Lakes.
After some gustiness this afternoon, winds will diminish tonight, but the pressure gradient looks to be sufficient to have winds decouple at times, particularly across the northwoods. Clouds will also be increasing from the northeast with help from lake effect into north-central WI where wind trajectories will remain north- northwest. Extent of cloud cover and winds make it difficult to determine the potential for wind chill headlines.
Low temperatures have increased across far northeast WI due to cloud cover. However, given the airmass and deep snow pack, trended temps colder than the NationalBlend, and not far from the NBM 50th percentile. Combined with some moderation of the arctic airmass, do not foresee as cold a night tonight with lows ranging from 5 below to 15 below for most. Combined with a slight 5-10 mph breeze, wind chills will be approaching 20-25 below over central and east-central WI late tonight into Wednesday morning.
Decided to issue a Cold Weather Advisory for central to east- central Wisconsin as wind chills will be right around criteria from about midnight to 9 am.
Snow Chances Wednesday: Broad, upper level low pressure will move into the western Great Lakes. Warm advection will continue to occur from the north, but deepest moisture should generally reside over the Upper Peninsula and northern Illinois. Therefore, the highest chances for light snow will occur over northern WI where lake effect will help augment the warm advection. It's possible that a few flurries could make into central and east-central WI by late in the afternoon. Up to a half inch of accumulations is possible across the north. Warmer high temperatures ranging through the teens.
Long Term...Wednesday Night Through Tuesday
Low impact forecast persists for the majority of the extended, in stark contrast to what we've seen over the past week. Main concerns will be front-loaded through the end of the work week as early morning wind chills remain in the single digits below zero.
Otherwise, snow chances remain minimal given a general lack of organized synoptic systems.
Snow chances... Periods of light lake effect snow look to be possible over the far north early on Thursday as winds veer to north/northwesterly along the leading edge of surface high pressure over the northern Plains. Lake surface to 850 mb delta Ts range from around 15 to 18C during this time, with probabilistic guidance showing around a 50 to 70 percent chance of exceeding one inch of snowfall in northern Vilas. Suspect that northerly wind component should keep any snow offshore along/east of the Fox Valley.
Next chances for more widespread snow arrive late this weekend as a warm front ushers in a push of WAA with reinforcement from isentropic ascent. However, snowfall amounts look to be held down to less than an inch as the profile struggles to saturate, with moisture topping out at around 700 mb. Probabilities for receiving one inch of snow range from around 10 to 30 percent area-wide.
Temperatures... Following a prolonged period of abnormal cold, long-range guidance picks up on a signal for a pattern shift to above average temperatures through the end of the month. Return flow settles in across the upper Midwest this weekend as high pressure departs to the east, resulting in temperatures rebounding into the upper 30s. Some areas across central and east-central Wisconsin may even see 40 degrees Monday and Tuesday. This being said, current thinking is that temperatures may underperform slightly due to existing snow pack, although should have a better idea in the coming days.
AVIATION
for 06Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1035 PM CST Tue Feb 18 2025
MVFR clouds over north-central Wisconsin will settle south through daybreak Wednesday, before MVFR-VFR clouds expand over the rest of the area by midday from north to south. Light snow showers or flurries are possible during the morning over north-central Wisconsin, and in the afternoon north and east of a RRL to OSH line.
GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Wednesday for WIZ018>020- 030-031-035>040-045-048>050.
Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air | Water | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
MN4 - 9087088 - Menominee, MI | 21 mi | 55 min | WSW 11G | 3°F | 35°F | 30.45 | -5°F | |
GBWW3 | 25 mi | 55 min | SW 1G | 1°F | 30.49 | |||
CBRW3 - Chambers Island, WI | 34 mi | 43 min | S 6G | 3°F | ||||
KWNW3 - 9087069- Kewaunee, WI | 35 mi | 55 min | WNW 8G | -0°F | 30.48 |
Wind History for Menominee, MI
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Airport Reports
Link to 1 hour of 5 minute data for KMNM
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KMNM
Wind History Graph: MNM
(wind in knots)GEOS Local Image of great lakes
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Green Bay, WI,

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