Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Oconto, WI

DISCUSSION
Issued at 312 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

Short Term
Today
Tonight...and Sunday

A weakly coupled 300mb jet moving across Lake Superior will produce light snow across far northeast Wisconsin, including northern Door county this morning. A dusting to half inch is possible. After any snow ends, today should have the mildest weather in the last ten days, as gusty southwest winds ahead of a weak surface front bring up warmer air from the central Plains. Highs will range from the upper 30s to middle 40s with a good deal of high clouds.

This weak front will move into southern Wisconsin tonight and stall out. Mostly cloudy skies will make for much milder weather than recent nights, with lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Sunday will be cloudy and mild, as the front moves north as a warm front. A few rain showers are possible in northcentral Wisconsin by late afternoon. Highs will range from mid 30s to low 40s.

Long Term...Sunday Night Through Friday

The main change for the extended period will be in precipitation type for Sunday night, where some mixed precipitation could bring a brief window of freezing drizzle to portions of central to north-central Wisconsin. Aside from this, colder air will return to the region around the middle of next week.

Precipitation...
A passing clipper system will bring some light precipitation to the region Sunday night into Monday morning, at the beginning of the extended. The main change from previous forecasts is the inclusion of some freezing drizzle in the forecast, as soundings from the NAM do support a saturated layer to around 3000-4000 feet with a mean layer temperatures around minus 2 to 3 C which would likely be devoid of ice until freezing on the surface. It's worth noting that a few of the other models for this time range would not support freezing precipitation at this time. Probabilistic guidance currently shows about 30% chance for any freezing drizzle, which is sufficient to include in the forecast for now.
Should any freezing drizzle materialize, expect travel impacts and slick spots on roads for portions of north-central Wisconsin.

After this, ensemble blends bring the dry slot into the region, drying out most of the area by much of Monday. The only chance for additional precipitation will be in the far north, along the Upper Peninsula border where colder air wrapping in behind the clipper system could again see a period of lake enhancement.

Temperatures...
Above normal temperatures will stick around in the region Monday with highs in the 40s. Then, much colder air will settle over the area behind the departing clipper, bringing high temperatures into the teens to lower 20s for the middle of the week. Fortunately, there are signs that some moderation in temperature will occur again by next weekend.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Dec 7 2024

MVFR cigs exited to the east mid-morning, leaving high clouds and VFR conditions in their wake. Expect high clouds to persist overnight, with opportunities for partial clearing across central Wisconsin. MVFR/IFR cigs then make a comeback early tomorrow morning as a weak cold front stalls out over northern Wisconsin, mainly affecting RHI.

Southwest winds began to ramp up late this morning, gusting from 20 to 25 mph at the eastern TAF sites. LLWS then becomes a concern at all TAF sites starting later this afternoon/evening as surface winds gradually subside and a 50 to 55 knot 850 mb jet builds in over eastern Wisconsin. LLWS then lifts from south to north mid-morning on Sunday.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.