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LMZ522 Expires:202312010300;;666293 Fzus53 Kgrb 301821 Nshgrb
nearshore marine forecast national weather service green bay wi 1221 pm cst Thu nov 30 2023
for waters within five nautical miles of the shore on lake michigan
lmz521-522-010300- green bay south of line from cedar river to rock island passage and north of a line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- green bay south of line from oconto wi to little sturgeon bay wi- 1221 pm cst Thu nov 30 2023
This afternoon..NW wind 5 to 10 kts. Sunny. Waves 2 ft or less.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 10 kts. Mostly clear. Waves 2 ft or less.
Friday..NE wind 10 to 15 kts. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 ft or less.
Friday night..NE wind 10 to 20 kts. Cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 ft.

LMZ500
No data

FXUS63 KGRB 301755 AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Green Bay WI 1155 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Updated aviation portion for 18Z TAF issuance

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonably warm weather are expected through the end of the work week.

- A system arriving late Saturday night looks to bring a widespread mixed precipitation event through Sunday.

- An active pattern is expected to begin next week as a clipper system moves through the area late Monday and Tuesday bringing another chance for mixed precipitation.

SHORT TERM
Today
Tonight
and Friday Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Forecast Details:

A cold front tracking through Wisconsin this morning will turn southwesterly winds to the west this morning then the northwest this afternoon. Despite the passage of a cold front, moisture and lift from this feature will be fairly meager. Therefore precipitation is not expected as the front tracks through the area. The shift in winds will bring back in clouds from Lake Superior to north-central Wisconsin. Highs today are expected to range from the middle to upper 40s across north-central Wisconsin, to around 40 across east-central and northeast Wisconsin.

Light winds and mostly clear skies at times tonight will allow for ideal radiational cooling conditions. This should push temperatures down into the middle teens across the north tonight, with lows in the lower to middle 20s across east-central Wisconsin.

A low pressure system tracking well to the south will bring some clouds to the area on Friday, as precipitation from this system is expected to stay to the south of the area. Surface winds will turn northeasterly on Friday, which will cause temperatures to cool a bit from today. Highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 30s across the north, with upper 30s across east-central Wisconsin.

LONG TERM
Friday Night Through Wednesday Issued at 305 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Forecast Details:

Friday night through Saturday afternoon...East-central WI may get a light wintry mix late Friday night into early Saturday morning as a low pressure system tracks over the northern Ohio River Valley, however, the bulk of the precipitation with this system should remain south and east of the CWA. As that system moves off to the east the area should remain dry most of Saturday as high pressure centered over Quebec extends over the area. High temperatures Saturday will range from the low 30s in north-central WI to the upper 30s in the Fox Valley and along the lakeshore.

Saturday night through Sunday...An area of mid-level WAA is expected to spread over the area late Saturday, and with upper- level support from a left exit region widespread mixed precipitation is expected through much of the day Sunday. There is some disagreement between models about when the precipitation will beginning. The GFS is more aggressive with precipitation spreading from south to north late Saturday night, whereas the ECMWF has precipitation arriving just before day break Sunday morning. Currently, it looks like areas in central and northern WI will see mainly snow with this system, while warming temperatures in the Fox Valley and east-central WI will likely cause precipitation to transition from snow to rain Sunday morning and then potentially back to snow Sunday night as temperatures cool off. With the precipitation type uncertainty it is difficult to pin down snow accumulations, however, the latest GFS run does indicate that areas in central and north-central WI could be pushing advisory criteria snow accumulations by Sunday night.
Impacts of the mixed precipitation around the Green Bay metro may also be amplified by heavy Packer game-day traffic.

Monday through Tuesday...There is the potential for another mixed precipitation event beginning Monday afternoon through Tuesday as a clipper system is progged to move through Wisconsin. However, the bulk of the precipitation with this system looks to be south and west of the area. High temperatures are also forecast to be just above freezing during this time, so any snow that may fall with this system would likely not stick around long.

Wednesday through the end of the extended...With an area of very dry air forecast to move over the area the middle of next week should be mostly dry. Temperatues will continue to trend a few degrees above normal through this time period.

AVIATION
for 18Z TAF Issuance Issued at 1154 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Skies will be clear with VFR conditions for most of the region through the afternoon and evening. The only exception will be along the Upper Peninsula border where some MVFR cloud cover will move across the region this afternoon. Confidence on these clouds reaching RHI is still only medium, so kept a TEMPO group for the best timing to account for this.

Tonight, some high clouds will move in from the south as an active weather system passes mostly south of the area. Some patchy fog will be possible again in the hours before sunrise, concentrated mainly across portions of central to north-central WI. Fog should lift by the late morning hours of Friday, but overcast high clouds will still be in the area. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible across the Fox Valley and lakeshore beyond the current TAF period as active weather lifts into southern WI and overrunning cloud cover comes northwards.

GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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