Landfall, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Landfall, MN

June 20, 2024 12:18 AM CDT (05:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:23 AM   Sunset 9:03 PM
Moonrise 7:24 PM   Moonset 2:44 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Landfall, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 200412 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1112 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- More rain is likely late tonight in southwestern Minnesota with PoPs increasing to the east early tomorrow morning.
Severe weather is not expected with this round of rain.

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe weather on Friday afternoon and night in western Minnesota. Main threats will be damaging winds and heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals from Thursday through Friday night may exceed 2-4" in some places across south central Minnesota.

- Lingering showers are possible Saturday morning with drier conditions expected through Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected through the end of the period.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Tonight through Friday...We're drying out and enjoying some cooler temperatures and lower dew points today thanks to northwest flow behind yesterday's cold front. This evening and overnight look to remain mostly dry except for a few scattered showers to our east until the LLJ increases in the early morning. The chance for precip increases right before sunrise for southwestern Minnesota before moving east throughout the morning before ending by early afternoon. There is not any risk of severe weather. QPF totals do not look too high for this round of rain. We are looking at around 0.1-0.3" in southwestern Minnesota while eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin sees much less with amounts tending to stay under one tenth. Tomorrow afternoon is looking to be similar to today with lingering clouds and highs in the high 60s and low 70s.

PoPs and QPF increase quickly Thursday night through Friday morning as a LLJ works in across southwestern Minnesota. While severe weather is not expected, heavy rainfall will certainly pose a threat for flooding concerns. PWs are forecast to increase to near climatological max (around 1.8") as warm moist air is advected northward overnight. WPC has placed far southwestern Minnesota under a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall through 12z Friday with that risk area being expanded across all of south central Minnesota and into western Wisconsin through 12z Saturday. There's still some shifting around of the heaviest axis of precip expected, so the potential for a Flash Flood Watch will be evaluated in future forecasts.
However, upwards of 3" of rain seem plausible through Saturday morning. The other concern for Friday is the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms. A warm front is forecast to lift northward through the day with instability building in the warm sector during the afternoon. The main threat appears to be damaging winds, though some elevated storms may pose a large hail risk over far western Minnesota. The LLJ will kick in again overnight, reinforcing the threat for heavy rain and thunderstorms as a cold front moves across the region. Rain will end from west to east through Saturday afternoon and we look to finally dry out for Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in.

We'll see a bit of a pattern shift early next week, but our continued low chances for precip will stick around. The ridge across the eastern CONUS will finally break down, but then we will find ourselves on the eastern periphery of a building ridge across the Four Corners region. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 80s through the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 1058 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High clouds prevalent across all TAF sites at initialization.
Ceilings will steadily lower overnight into Thursday morning with rain showers possible mid-to-late Thursday morning. Chances better for rain showers reaching the terminals Thursday afternoon in one swath of rain. Another swath looks to come Thursday night through Friday morning, with a potential break in between for Thursday evening. High degree of uncertainty on the timing/placement of any possible CB/TS so have omitted its mention with this set. Winds will run NE to E throughout the period with speeds 10kts or less.

KMSP...First chance for rain showers looks to come from around sunrise to late Thursday morning, but the better chance for steady rain will come late morning and continue through most of the afternoon hours. Showers will diminish late afternoon into the evening, with additional steady rain coming mid-to-late Thursday evening through Friday morning. Will hold off mention of CB/TS until trends become more apparent in short-term models and radar trends.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...Periods of -RA/MVFR, chc IFR/TSRA. Wind SE 10-15 kts.
SAT...Periods of -RA/MVFR early, chc -RA/MVFR late. Wind SW 10-15 kts becoming NW.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10 kts.



MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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