NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS63 KMPX 292351 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 551 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet and mild weather through most of the forecast period.

- A chance for rain/snow from southern MN through western WI Sunday.
Most remain dry, nuisance accumulation possible.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 207 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

GOES satellite imagery shows a picturesque late November day with mostly clear skies as wispy cirrus clouds move overhead, with surface temperatures in the mid 40s to even low 50s in portions of western Minnesota. Skies will remain mostly clear with only a few high clouds through this evening and overnight, with temperatures once again cooling into the low to mid 20s. We remain warmer than our normal mid 30s highs through the rest of the week with upper 30s likely most days with upper teens to low 20s overnights as our pattern largely persists with no significant weather systems to affect us. The exception to the prior statement is a system that looks to remain to the south of MN and WI, however some chances for light snow persist on Sunday from southern MN through western WI on the northern fringe, with minor nuisance accumulation possible. The forcing from the main system remains a surface low forming within the left exit region of a strengthening upper level jet, with synoptic scale divergence aloft leading to weak but persistent rising motion. A surface low then forms in response to the strong upper level jet, with enough mid level perturbation to force some sporadic snow showers along the northern edge. Most of us likely remain dry as weak high pressure remains centered over northern Minnesota, however some flakes are certainly possible as far north as the Twin Cities.

The signal beyond Sunday becomes more muddied in the details with disparity within the ensemble and deterministic guidance. A deep but positively tilting trough moving through early in the week could result in some minor forcing for snow showers, however models disagree on timing on intensity to such a large degree that it is only worth a token mention of additional snow showers Tuesday and Wednesday. The main consequence from this trough as it stands now would be slightly cooler air beginning to return with northerly winds aloft on the western side of the trough as it stalls over the eastern CONUS, however given our recent history it would be unwise to count out the southern stream jet helping to eject this faster than currently depicted. For now, expect a few snow shower chances, but otherwise cloudy and continued quiet weather up here.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 551 PM CST Wed Nov 29 2023

Quiet VFR conditions continue through the period. Only pockets of few to scattered high level stratus visible on satellite currently. Winds will remain steady around 5kts tonight out of the south/southwest. By tomorrow morning, winds will veer to northwesterly and increase to around 15kts. A few gusts could reach the 18-20kt speeds before decreasing at sunset. Sky conditions look to impact AXN the most but that only refers to potential BKN cigs at 100-150 levels tomorrow morning. The rest of the TAF sites can expect few to SCT clouds during the daytime hours on Thursday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind E 5kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.
SUN...VFR/MVFR, chc -SN. Wind S 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Minneapolis, MN,