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FXUS63 KMPX 030854 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 254 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow, drizzle, and freezing drizzle continue through this morning, mainly east of I-35 and into western WI.

- An Alberta clipper will bring another chance of widespread snow Monday into Monday night with minor accumulations expected.

- Temperatures remain seasonal to open this week but much warmer than normal temperatures are expected the latter half of the work week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Early this morning, a system passing through eastern IA and northern IL has clipped our region with an influx of moisture and weak lift.
This is causing overcast, low stratus and freezing drizzle to occur across southeastern MN. While weather stations in this region are only reporting "mist", the area road statuses on the Minnesota Department of Transportation 511 website have begun to light up with a number of roads being at least partially ice covered. Indeed, select highway cameras do show a sheen of reflection on roadways underneath street lights. The light precip should continue to spread northeast into WI and eventually changeover to snow through this morning. This snow should be light and melt on contact, though a tenth or two of an inch could accumulate in our far eastern WI counties. The main thing to remember is to be cautious driving this morning as the precip will undoubtedly cause slick conditions.

Mostly cloudy skies will only allow highs to top out in the mid to upper 30s today. Some clearing across western MN is expected tonight, which should allow lows to sink into the lower 20s. Areas east will be warmer in the mid to upper 20s. Monday will bring similar highs to today along with our next chance of precip in the form of an Alberta clipper. The main change from previous forecasts is a noticeable shift south in the clipper's track in both the CAMs and large-scale forecast models. Guidance now favors a swath of light QPF through western into south-central and southern MN. All of this QPF is expected to be snow and should only amount to an inch or so at most. However, this snow could still be impactful given that the evening commute is likely to occur during. Light snow could even persist into Tuesday morning's commute. Thus, again be wary of slick road conditions and drive with great caution.

After Tuesday, we should experience a strong warm up to end the week. Forecast models favor strong upper-level ridging to build over the Intermountain Rockies and then push east into the central CONUS by mid-week. Area-wide forecast temperatures Wednesday to Friday are currently 10-15 degrees above normal with a good chance of the southern Minnesota seeing at least one day of highs reaching 50.
However, a quick look at our climate stats for MSP, STC, and EAU suggests that record-breaking temperatures are not likely. By the end of the week, temperatures should return towards normal as the upper-level ridging breaks down while moving east. Chances for any significant precipitation the end of the period and beyond also don't seem too promising as long-range forecast models favor the jetstream staying well to our south.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1101 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Spotty drizzle or flurries have occurred across western WI this evening, which is expected to continue into Monday. Southern and eastern MN may begin to see this overnight as well. Cigs are variable across the area at this time, but should trend lower at all TAF sites as the overnight progresses. MVFR or IFR is expected by morning area wide.

KMSP...Cigs are trending lower and should be MVFR by the beginning of the period. Could see a few flurries overnight with minimal impact.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR with MVFR/-SN possible late. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S at 10G15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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