Spring Park, MN Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Spring Park, MN

June 18, 2024 3:52 AM CDT (08:52 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:25 AM   Sunset 9:05 PM
Moonrise 5:04 PM   Moonset 1:48 AM 
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 180550 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1250 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread thunderstorms overnight will produce rainfall amounts of one to two inches with locally higher amounts.

- Low-end severe thunderstorm risk exists over southern Minnesota this afternoon and evening.

- Additional thunderstorms likely Tuesday and Tuesday night, some of which could be strong to severe with additional heavy rainfall.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 334 PM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

An active stormy pattern continues today and tomorrow with multiple additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms expected through early Wednesday. For this afternoon and evening, a surface warm front currently sits over central/northern Iowa with an elevated 925 hPa boundary further north over southern Minnesota. Elevated storms have developed near the latter boundary where the environment is somewhat favorable for some marginally-severe hail or wind gusts, especially as the surface boundary lifts north and instability becomes more surface-based.
However, the current activity near Fairmont has developed before this destabilization can really get going, which may help to limit the severe threat.

The warm front will steadily lift northward tonight, accompanied by an impressive 40-60 kt low-level jet. Forcing and moisture transport associated with this jet will favor additional widespread storms along the advancing warm front, some of which will likely produce additional heavy rainfall. Fortunately the northeastward storm motion will increase so that training along the front doesn't appear to be a significant issue, but with several favorable ingredients for heavy rainfall rates in place, there could still be some 2" to 4" pockets embedded with in otherwise broad 1" to 2" amounts. Several high-resolution models suggest this could occur south of the Twin Cities metro into western Wisconsin, so the ongoing Flash Flood Watch was expanded to include these areas.

On Tuesday the entire area will be in the warm sector as the warm front continues to lift northward, setting the stage for additional strong to severe thunderstorms with a cold front that will swing through from west to east during the afternoon and evening. Much of the severe threat will be dependent upon airmass destabilization behind tonight's activity, which some indications suggest a strongly unstable airmass across western and central Minnesota by afternoon. If this occurs, severe storms will certainly be a possibility particularly over northern portions of the forecast area where deep-layer shear will be more supportive. Damaging wind gusts and a few instances of severe hail will be the main threats. Given the magnitude of instability and downdraft potential, combined with weaker deep- layer shear, it seems more likely that activity will become cold pool dominant and cut back on the threat for widespread wind potential. However low-level shear will be relatively high, so will need to watch for some bowing structures just in case.

Due to the progressive nature of Tuesday's front, the overall heavy rainfall threat will be somewhat limited. However, ingredients will remain very supportive of heavy rainfall rates with this activity, which could again support a widespread 1" to locally 2" with this activity. Given the wet antecedent conditions, a localized flash flood threat will persist into early Wednesday morning when the front finally exits to the east.

There will be a relative break in the action on Wednesday, however persistent southwest upper flow will mean a continued active weather pattern through the rest of the week and into the first half of the weekend. Some of this activity could again produce heavy rainfall amounts, so area rivers and streams will need to be monitored closely for several more days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2024

A cluster of showers/storms is tracking into northern Minnesota and Wisconsin early this morning. Only areas near AXN and STC should have impacts from these over the next hour or so. Cigs are mainly MVFR/VFR, but some periods of IFR are possible before these storms push further north. Winds will continue to shift more southerly as the frontal boundary lifts north this morning, increasing in speed and gustiness throughout the day. We'll enjoy a brief break in the clouds/rain until another front tracks through from west to east, producing another round of showers/storms this afternoon. Some of these storms could produce severe wind gusts and reduced visibility with heavy rainfall rates.

KMSP...Any precipitation with the storms this evening should stay well north of the terminal now, resulting in a break from the clouds/rain until around 22/23z this afternoon. After the initial push of heavy rain and storms, lighter showers could persist into the evening. Winds will quickly shift out of the west as the front moves through, and then gradually turn more northwesterly into the night.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind N 5-10kts.
THU...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind E 5-10kts.
FRI...VFR/MVFR, chc -TSRA/-SHRA. Wind S 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Anoka-Benton-Carver- Chippewa-Chisago-Dakota-Douglas-Goodhue-Hennepin-Isanti- Kanabec-Kandiyohi-Le Sueur-McLeod-Meeker-Mille Lacs- Morrison-Pope-Ramsey-Renville-Rice-Scott-Sherburne-Sibley- Stearns-Stevens-Swift-Todd-Washington-Wright.
WI...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for Barron-Chippewa-Dunn- Eau Claire-Pepin-Pierce-Polk-Rusk-St. Croix.




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