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FXUS63 KMPX 040520 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1120 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Monday system trending farther south and drier, with minimal impacts expected.

- Highs in the 50s looking increasingly likely along and south of I-94 in MN Wednesday and Thursday.

- More seasonable temperatures next weekend, but forecast is trending dry.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 237 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

Although we are located with a broad upper trough today, we're in a bit of no-man's land, with shortwaves located to our north, west, southwest, and east. This has resulted in little in the way of a pressure gradient and weak low level flow, which has resulted in a tricky forecast when it comes to the stratus. The lack of flow means mixing from the sun is about all we have to clear the clouds and it has helped expand the clearing that started down by St. James and Fairmont. How this clearing evolves through the night is a bit uncertain, but forecast soundings from the RAP/HRRR would favor this clearing filling back in through the night, with this stratus deck remaining in place in some fashion through the day on Monday.

Also happening Monday is our next, and final shortwave in this trough arrives. This wave right now is up over BC. The southward shift with this wave mentioned in the previous discussion continues here. In addition, forecast soundings show some serious moisture/saturation issues across southern MN. Add into this the best PVA and WAA going from central SoDak into northern IA and we not only have questionable moisture, but questionable forcing as well. All of this adds up a further reduction of PoPs, with any mentionable PoP basically restricted to along/south of the I-94 corridor. Temperatures during the late afternoon/early evening where this precip potential exists are forecast to range from 32-36, which will support a mix of light rain and light snow and also result in negligible impacts.

Tuesday will be a cool day with a surface high moving through, but Tuesday night, upper ridging starts moving in, with a very mild Pacific airmass coming in out of the Rockies. It looks likely that we'll see highs in the 50s south of I-94 in MN both Wednesday and Thursday, so again pushed highs up toward the NBM 90th percentile both days.

For the end of the week, we will see winds switch around to the northwest, which will push our highs back into the 30s next weekend.
Our next longwave trough also moves through next weekend, but models are very much trending dry with this one, with another scenario of a weak shortwave remaining to our north and the main flow and stronger storm track remaining to our south. EPS mean h2 winds for the next 2 weeks show the dominate jet being the southern stream, coming out of Mexico and going along the Gulf Coast and up the east coast. Until this pattern changes, we'll continue to see seasonable temperatures with minimal chances for any significant precip. Basically, through the middle of December, don't expect any exciting weather up here...

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1120 PM CST Sun Dec 3 2023

LIFR conditions have developed across parts of western MN, which will likely build east overnight to fill in the clearing between the current fog and the stratus along and east of the Mississippi River. It will be slow to improve Monday, in fact where dense fog does form it may remain into mid to late morning.

KMSP...VFR should remain in place overnight. The fog across western MN will approach, but likely only result in IFR cigs from about 12Z onward.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE...VFR with MVFR possible early. Wind NW 5-10 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S 15G25 kts.
THU...VFR. Wind SE 5-10 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Monday for MNZ041-047-048- 054>057-064-065-073-074-082-091.
WI...None.

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