Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Shorewood, MN

UPDATE
Issued at 451 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Gusty northwest winds will continue to increase this evening, reaching their peak speeds after midnight across central Minnesota. Forecast soundings & high- resolution model output both highlight the likelihood for wind gusts of 40-50 mph overnight, with sporadic gusts over 50 mph likely. A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of central Minnesota from midnight until 7 AM Sunday morning, when wind gusts will diminish into the 30-40 mph range.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

Current satellite imagery reveals a cold front across western Minnesota this afternoon. Temperatures have warmed up nicely this afternoon with most locations in the 70s and lower 80s ahead of the cold front. Locations behind the front have cooled off into the 60s with gusty northwest winds. Dew points have slowly climbed into upper 50s ahead of the boundary and that will lead to a few isolated showers across western Wisconsin this afternoon. Unfortunately anyone hoping for a widespread rain event will have to continue to wait another 7+ days with no clear system on the horizon. Behind the boundary dew points have fallen into the mid 30s and the combination of gusty winds and low RH values will lead to elevated fire weather concerns across portions of western Minnesota through this evening.
A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of W MN until 8 PM.

Overnight we'll cool back into the 40s with skies clearing out post- FROPA. This may provide an opportunity for Northern Lights to be observed as a CME is forecast to impact earth this evening through Sunday AM. Aurora hunters will need to bring a hoodie to keep warm.
Northwest winds & temperatures in the 40s will feel much more like Fall versus the current never ending Summer-like temperatures.
Sunday will be closer to average with highs in the 60s but we'll see temperatures begin an gradual warm up throughout the new work week.

For Monday thru Friday, we'll see this stretch of dry & mild temperatures continue. Highs start off in the 70s thru Wednesday with 80s Thursday & Friday. Temperatures peak Friday and we'll have to monitor just how warm we end up as St. Cloud is currently forecast to break their record high of 83 on 10/11. Our current forecast has STC high temp at 84. Another cold front arrives next weekend but the stretch of above normal temperatures looks to continue beyond the next 7 days. The latest EPS does not forecast a high at or below normal over the next two weeks! This matches up with the 8-14 day CPC outlook is putting out too. The primary concern will be the elevated fire weather

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 704 PM CDT Sat Oct 5 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period, with gusty northwest winds peaking overnight. Gusts of 30-40 kts will develop after midnight tonight and continue until sunrise, with speeds diminish slightly during the day tomorrow. Before the winds ramp up overnight, a few hours of LLWS is likely with speeds up to 45 kts at FL020. Gusts will be more in the 25-30 kts range for most of the day tomorrow, with winds weakening late tomorrow afternoon & gusts disappearing after sunset. A band of SCT to BKN stratocumulus will also move into the area overnight as the strongest winds develop, with ceilings expected to remain above MVFR levels.

KMSP...Gusty northwest winds are expected through the period.
Gusts up to 30 kts will continue this evening, with stronger winds expected after midnight. Gusts overnight will generally be between 30-35 kts, but sporadic gusts over 40 kts can't be ruled out. The gusts will begin to diminish by the morning rush period, with gusts of 25-30 kts lasting into Sunday afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR. Wind W 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind S/SE 5-10kts.
WED...VFR. Wind SE 5-10kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 7 AM CDT Sunday for Benton-Douglas-Mille Lacs-Morrison-Pope-Sherburne-Stearns- Stevens-Swift-Todd.
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Redwood-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.