Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM Moonrise 10:44 PM   Moonset 6:13 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 260551 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 1251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Friday's system brings widespread rain and gusty winds to the region. The heaviest rain is expected Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- There is a Marginal severe threat for overnight convection along the I-90 corridor in southern MN. Hail would be the primary concern.

- A break in the active weather is anticipated Saturday, with another strong system expected to bring additional widespread rain on Sunday.

- A more Summer-like warmth expected to start May, with an active weather pattern expected across the central CONUS.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 247 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY... Temperatures have warmed into the 60s and 70s across the region early this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies are accompanied by gusty winds out of the south-southeast. A few sporadic gusts have been up to 40mph, particularly across portions of western Minnesota. We'll see an increase in mid-high level cloud cover this afternoon and evening as our first of two weekend systems takes shape in the Plains. RH values have largely stayed in the 30 to 35% range which has helped limit harsher fire weather conditions this afternoon.

Tonight, showers will begin to spread across the area from west to east. Moisture advection will ramp up ahead of this and should limit our overnight low temperatures from falling much below 45 degrees.
Friday will not be a complete wash out, but odds are the combination of gusty winds and periods of rain should limit any outdoor activities. Most locations should see a half inch to an inch of rain by Saturday morning with a few localized areas with heavier amounts due to convection. A few storms could turn severe along I-90 Friday evening and Friday night as MUCAPE values of 500-1000j/kg + move through along a frontal boundary. The sfc low track to our south will really limit what severe potential could be had yet colder temperatures aloft & elevated instability can pose a non zero hail threat. Saturday continues to be the best "weather day" of the weekend as we'll be between systems. Temperatures in the 70s appear likely with dew points remaining on the higher end due to Friday's rainfall + ongoing warm air advection ahead of Sunday's system.

Sunday's forecast remains interesting as the low track is a bit further north than Friday's and that should put more of the region into the warm sector and thus a severe threat. Latest 12z guidance has possibly trended a touch further south with the track, but southern Minnesota will still need to monitor the potential Sunday afternoon. If we're able to see meaningful instability build into our region then we'll likely see severe potential develop. Shear will be favorable and timing isn't awful. On top of potential severe another round of widespread rain will move through. An additional half inch to inch falls with total amounts from both systems between 1 to 2" with locally higher amounts where convection tracks. We'll dry out on Monday with a brief "cool down".

Tuesday through Thursday... This period remains unsettled with model spread suggesting the potential for additional precipitation mid- week. There is a reasonable signal for another shortwave to move through but timing differences mean PoPs are smoothed out Tuesday through Thursday. ECMWF would suggest better chances for precip and thunder Thursday and Friday ahead of a SW CONUS trough.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 1229 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

GOES satellite imagery captures mid to high level cloud cover moving into southwest Minnesota early this morning. Ceilings will begin to lower and rain chances will increase at all TAF sites later this morning. Initial round of low VFR/high MVFR -SHRA will move in around/shortly after daybreak. Latest hi-res models have captured an expected lull in the precipitation after the morning round, prior to another round of showers and potential storms. Ceilings are forecast to continue to lower through the afternoon, with the some sites dropping below 1k feet by the evening. Have included PROB30s at MKT and MSP, where convection lifting north out of Iowa may still be organized enough to pose a thunderstorm threat. Gusty southeast winds will be the theme at all terminals through the period.

KMSP...Showers arrive after daybreak and will persist through the morning before a break in the activity for the afternoon.
Despite the expected dry period, ceilings will lower to MVFR by 17/18z. Have maintained the PROB30 for -TSRA for the potential of thunderstorms featured in the hi-res guidance during the evening hours. Unsettled weather will keep showers around well into tonight, though dry weather and improvements to the ceiling should arrive after 09z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...MVFR. -SHRA likely early and overnight. Chc IFR/TS overnight. Wind SW 15G25 kts becoming NW.
SUN...MVFR/-SHRA, chance IFR/TS. Wind NE 10-15G25 kts.
MON...MVFR/-SHRA early, then VFR. Wind W 15G25 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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