NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

LMZ344 Sleeping Bear Point To Grand Traverse Light Mi- Point Betsie To Sleeping Bear Point Mi- 402 Am Est Thu Dec 7 2023
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 am est this morning...
Today..West wind 10 to 15 knots early in the morning becoming variable 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 feet or less in the afternoon.
Tonight..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South wind 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday night..South wind 5 to 10 knots. Chance of rain. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
see the open lakes forecast for days 3 through 5.

LMZ300
No data

FXUS63 KAPX 071132 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 632 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 318 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High Impact Weather Potential...minimal.

A surface warm front bisects northern MI from n to s at this hour. Outside of some possible drizzle in parts of ne lower MI (north of M-32), precip has exited. At 3 am, surface temps are in the 30s to lower 40s across the entire area; that's within a few degrees of normal highs for Dec 7.

Above-freezing air at 850mb will be flooding the area today, with circa +5C readings tonight. 500mb shortwave ridding will also build overhead tonight. Little risk of sensible wx, as we are broadly drying out today. Moist advection does start to return late tonight, and a band of enhanced mid-level moisture lifts across northern parts of the forecast area late. Some accas will result, but feel it will be difficult to realize more than a sprinkle or two.

So what do clouds and temps do today? The low-levels are relatively moist, and feel that in much of the area any sunshine will tend to self-destruct into a low/shallow cu field. Nw lower MI (TVC-CAD and west) will be an exception, where RH values are lower due to warmer surface temps. Expect partial sunshine thru the day there.

Max temps today near 40f to the mid 40s. Maybe TVC takes a run at the upper 40s, but it's worth remembering that we're exactly two weeks from the winter solstice, and the sun isn't worth very much. Lows tonight upper 20s to mid 30s.

SHORT TERM
(Friday through Saturday)
Issued at 318 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Rain Saturday.

Pattern Synopsis: Ridging axis driven in response to a trough in the Rockies will be directly overhead for the day Friday as 500mb heights reach their zenith. Looking upstream, two potent waves associated with the trough to our west will be driving the conclusion of the forecast period: one a deep northern stream wave over the Canadian prairies, and the other a progressive southern stream wave ejecting eastward from the Plains into the mid Mississippi valley undergoing cyclogenesis. The northern stream wave is set to race northeastward into Ontario, while the southern stream wave is drawn northward by mean flow and passes through Michigan on Saturday as cyclogenesis processes continue and pressure falls commence over the upper Great Lakes. This intrusion of deeper moisture and lift will be accompanied by continued anomalously warm air, likely eliminating wintry precipitation from the forecast for Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: Temps Friday; precip timing Friday night into Saturday.

Friday will be spent dry for most, and anomalously warm across the board. Exception for the dry conditions will be the eastern Yoop, as a surface warm front stalls over Ontario and some weak northern stream moisture looks to seep into the region, sparking off some spotty sprinkles or light showers. Otherwise, the dominant story for Friday certainly will be the warmth... however, moisture increases aloft will largely keep skies mostly cloudy. This in turn puts a tricky temperature forecast in place... but given the already warm airmass in place, expecting those south of the bridge to peak into the mid to upper 40s, with some lower 50s likely closer to Saginaw and Grand Traverse bays. Attention then turns to the approaching wave Friday night into Saturday. As surface low pressure builds into southern Lake Michigan, moisture will slowly erode any remaining low level dry layer late in the overnight hours, spreading rain from SW to NE across the area through Saturday morning and lingering for much of the day as it passes through the upper Great Lakes region.
Despite the system moving in from the south, a weak moisture tap from deeper Gulf moisture will limit the overall rain potential from this system. Still a rainy day nonetheless, which should further erode any of the current snowpack that survives the warmup in the coming days. Highs Saturday in the 40s and perhaps lower 50s near Saginaw Bay. Should be noted that there is still some uncertainty with the exact position of the low, and as the previous forecaster pointed out, fluctuations within this track could lead to a warmer tick in temperatures if a farther west track is realized. Rain will slowly taper in the evening as this compacted system clears the area, and colder air begins its return to the region late in the evening into the overnight hours.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 318 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

High Impact Weather Potential: Colder air brings lake effect potential?

On the heels of the departing low, colder air spills into the region through the remainder of the weekend as a quick moving northern stream wave rushes into the area on the heels of the Saturday low. How quickly this colder air builds will be paramount as to how things transpire into next week. If the passing low goes farther west, a slower and somewhat less snowy solution is possible as the colder air and deeper moisture over the lakes may not overlap. If this colder air trends quicker and the moisture overhead can overlap with the shortwave, then there is a snowier solution.
Guidance does depict additional northern stream waves passing through around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe, which could lead to another intrusion of lake effect precipitation. Of course, given the uncertainties, there is much to iron out in terms of duration, timing, and intensity of any potential lake effect snows... so stay tuned for updates in the coming forecast cycles.

AVIATION
(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 632 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

A mix of MVFR to VFR today CIU/PLN/APN. Mostly VFR TVC/MBL.

Warm but relatively moist low-level air continue to push into northern MI. Low clouds are extensive north of TVC, with MVFR cigs most common at the moment. Expect these cigs to improve today, with VFR conditions more common this afternoon. TVC could be MVFR at times this morning, but will otherwise be mostly VFR.
VFR at mbL.

Sw winds today will back se tonight.

MARINE
Issued at 318 AM EST Thu Dec 7 2023

Sw winds will weaken this morning, and wave heights will gradually subside. Se to s winds will increase again late tonight into Friday. The north end of Lakes MI and Huron have the best chance to see advisory-levels winds and waves.



APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
LH...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LHZ349.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for LMZ323- 341-342-344>346.
LS...None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Gaylord, MI,