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FXUS63 KMPX 162243 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 543 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Small chance (10 to 20 percent) for showers overnight north of I-94 in Minnesota.

- Increasing confidence for showers and thunderstorms Sunday night. The risk for severe weather or heavy rain is low.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...Main change to the forecast was to add a small chance for showers and possibly a thunderstorm north of I-94 late tonight (after midnight) into Friday morning. An area of isentropic ascent ahead of a low amplitude shortwave will lead to ascent. HiRes models are in good agreement in developing a few showers and thunderstorms. Instability is very low, so the risk for severe weather is near-zero.

Eventually these will lift northeast and weaken as warm air advection spreads across the region on Friday, leading to highs in the 80s to near 90 across western MN. DESI showed a 20 percent chance of seeing 90s degrees, so continued with forecast temperatures on the higher side of guidance.

On Saturday a cold front will pass through the region, but should move through mainly dry. There is a small chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms along and east of I-35. This frontal boundary will move through and stall out across Iowa, which will be the next focus for showers and thunderstorms late Sunday into next week.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...Sunday will start out dry with southeast winds developing ahead of the next storm system that will bring widespread rain across the region Sunday night into Monday. Minnesota and Wisconsin will be on the cool side of this system, so that means little if any instability and a very low severe weather threat. Precipitation chances have increased from the previous forecast, as confidence remains high that most locations will see rain with this system.

Looking ahead, a couple more storm systems will move across the region next week. Given the timing and placement differences, this leads to a forecast with 20 to 40 percent chances for rain throughout the period. In reality, there will be more narrow windows when rain will move across the region. As has been the case this entire spring, the warm sector of these system is expected to remain to the south, which means low chances for severe weather.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 539 PM CDT Thu May 16 2024

VFR conditions expected throughout this TAF duration. As a surface front over WI continues to push away to the east this evening, the BKN-coverage mid-level cloud deck in its wake over eastern MN and western WI will erode away, allowing for only passing high cirrus clouds late this evening through the day Friday. There is some minor discrepancies as to whether there may be some high ceilings tomorrow but they would be short-live around sunrise if they happen at all, so have gone a more optimistic look. There is also a slight chance of a few showers over western and central MN around sunrise, but chances are too low for inclusion. Breezy westerly winds at initialization will diminish to around 5 kts late this evening through the overnight hours and back to southerly, then increase to near 10 kts by late Friday morning.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SAT...VFR, slight chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind S to W 15-20G30kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts.
MON...MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE 5-10 kts, bcmg NW 5-15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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