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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Louis Park, MN

July 20, 2024 2:37 AM CDT (07:37 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:45 AM   Sunset 8:54 PM
Moonrise 8:02 PM   Moonset 3:17 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Louis Park, MN
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Area Discussion for - Twin Cities, MN
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FXUS63 KMPX 192314 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 614 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of isolated showers & thunderstorms tonight through this weekend. Slow-moving storms mean localized rainfall amounts of a few inches are possible.

- Diurnally-driven afternoon showers and thunderstorms are likely through midweek, with the best chances for widespread rain coming Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

- Drier conditions likely to end next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 253 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

More of the same this afternoon with light winds, seasonable temperatures, & smoky skies aloft as weak northwest flow continues over the region. The surface high pressure that has led to the quiet weather this week will slide east of the region tonight, with a slow moving vorticity lobe aloft & surface pressure trough advancing in in its wake tonight through tomorrow. Enough forcing will be present with this upper-level feature for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop late this evening & continue into tomorrow morning. Models still remain quite spread out with where these showers and thunderstorms could develop, but overall look most likely along the path of the upper-level feature across western & south- central Minnesota. Better chances for rain across the whole area come tomorrow afternoon through tomorrow night, as diurnal heating lights up a slow-moving cold front descending southwards out of northern Minnesota. Rain chances will likely hold off until late in the afternoon or evening across our area, when the front reaches central MN & WI, so most of the daytime tomorrow looks to remain dry. Showers & thunderstorms will be scattered along the front so not everyone will see rain. Storms will be slow-moving as well which could result in very localized rainfall amounts of a few inches in areas that see multiple rounds of rain tonight & tomorrow. The front lingers over southern MN & western WI Sunday, which will likely initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms by the afternoon.
Similarly to Saturday, storms will be scattered & slow-moving with a chance for very localized heavy rain.

The front will be out of the region by Monday, but a typically stagnant summertime upper-air & surface pattern means diurnally- driven scattered showers & thunderstorms are likely each afternoon through mid-week. Our forecast shows a general 20-30% chance of precipitation through this time, but chances will be highest during the afternoon & early evening with most locations likely staying dry. A chance for more widespread rain does look likely Tuesday night into Wednesday morning when most models bring a more-organized shortwave somewhere through the Upper Midwest. Heavier rain & strong thunderstorms can’t be ruled out with this wave, if it happens to come through the region Tuesday afternoon/evening, but otherwise just looks to result in a better chance for more widespread showers and thunderstorms.
High pressure builds back into the area behind this system with drier conditions expected to end the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jul 19 2024

No major changes to the ongoing TAF with BKN/OVC mid-level cigs continuing with a few showers popping up near RWF likely to dissipate as we get past sunset. Skies trending more BKN/OVC as opposed to SCT kept convective activity down this afternoon, with high-resolution guidance trending towards more activity during the afternoon tomorrow. Introduced prob30 groups for those most likely to see -TSRA nearby, with confidence not expected to get much higher than that for storm chances. Winds remain light enough such that patchy BR is expected tonight for all but the western WI locations.

KMSP...Introduced a prob30 for -TSRA potential tomorrow afternoon, with what looks like a better shot than today.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.
MON...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind NW 5 kts.
TUE...VFR. Chc PM TSRA/MVFR. Wind NE 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.




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