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FXUS63 KMPX 022351 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 551 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

KEY MESSAGES
- Chances for some light snow to the east of I-35, and mainly in western Wisconsin, tonight into tomorrow morning. A second wave will bring the chance for more widespread precipitation Monday. Minor snow accumulations will be possible.

- Temperatures remain seasonal in the 30s to open next week. A warming trend into the 40s is set to arrive by the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 305 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

A broad layer of low-level stratus has begun to fill in over the southeastern corner of the state this morning. A broad, upper level trough will progress eastward across the central CONUS over the weekend. This will bring a few embedded shortwaves along the way, with the most pronounced wave moving through tomorrow morning. The system tracking with this wave should primarily impact areas to our south and east, but some light precipitation is expected for Minnesota and Wisconsin on the outskirts of the system. Moisture profiles have trended drier in forecast soundings for areas in eastern MN, leading us to scale back slightly on PoPs. We are also seeing a potential signal for some drizzle mixed in with the light snow showers, as thermal profiles have become slightly warmer. This is not expected to be a prolific freezing drizzle event, rather it could have some spots mixed within. It will be important to watch how things evolve tonight.

Another shortwave is forecasted to move through late Monday into Tuesday morning. The forcing with this wave continues to be a bit stronger, so we have increased PoPs slightly in collaboration with our neighbors. The majority of ensemble members continue to show light QPF, so we are expecting only a few hundredths with this wave.
Most, if not all, of the precipitation should fall as snow, with accumulations most likely being less than an inch. With most of the area losing their recent snow depths, this fresh dusting of snow could be enough to cause travel impacts for the Tuesday morning commute.

An upper level ridge is expected to build in by mid-week, allowing temperatures to warm up well-above normal into the low 40s.
Depending on the strength of the WAA associated with the ridge, these values may continue to trend upwards. There are a few small chances for light precipitation to end the week, but the main focus will be on another longwave trough that could make its way across the central CONUS next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
Issued at 541 PM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

MVFR conditions from low-level stratus plagues most TAF sites.
IFR cigs are possible at AXN, RNH, and EAU overnight tonight. The lowest ceilings will be near the MVFR/IFR threshold of 1000 ft over eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin tomorrow morning as some light snow showers move through the area. While remaining precip free, AXN could see similar cigs near the MVFR/IFR threshold in the early Sunday AM hours. Winds will remain light from the SE, until becoming more variable tomorrow afternoon.

KMSP...Low-level stratus should stick around through Sunday before slowly clearing to the east. The small chance for light snow showers continues to remain on track for Sunday morning, but MSP is just on the western gradient and could see nothing.
Winds remain light from the SE until becoming more variable by tomorrow afternoon.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ MON...VFR with MVFR/-SN possible late. Wind S 5-10kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind NW 10-15 kts.
WED...VFR. Wind S at 10G15 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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