Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 12:45 PM   Moonset 2:00 AM

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FXUS63 KMPX 161057 AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 557 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain moves out this morning with skies gradually clearing today. Sunny and warmer conditions on tap for Friday.

- Further shower and storm chances arrive over the weekend, with another good chance for some widespread rain arriving late Sunday into early Monday. No severe weather is currently expected through the period.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The last surge of rainfall is moving through the area as of around 230am cutting across the area from Albert Lea towards Eau Claire, with dry conditions expected across the CWA by sunrise. Satellite imagery shows a lack of any sort of convection with relatively warm cloud tops and a lack of lightning activity until you look much farther to the south by Kansas City, although a rumble or two is still possible over the next few hours. As the surface low producing the showers weekend and moves eastwards, winds will begin shifting out of the northwest staying at 10-15mph throughout the day with temperatures in the mid 60s to near 70 by this afternoon as sunshine begins to peak through the clouds by then as well. Friday is expected to be a quiet day with southerly winds and sunny skies allowing temperatures to climb into the low to mid 80s for highs as our next system begins to develop off the Rockies for the weekend.
Upper level flow at this point is zonal with a weak shortwave showing up within some of the deterministic guidance, however based off available moisture and the sounding profile, this looks to mainly result in a bit of cloud cover arriving later on Friday.

The trend for Saturday has shifted towards isolated showers and weak storms as a result of an upper level trough sliding through the northern plains and southern Canada with a surface low forming in response in southern Canada dragging a cold front through the region by Saturday morning. The front is currently progged to move through the northern half of the state leaving the MPX CWA relatively dry with a few isolated showers possible mainly due to the mid-level warm air advection and moisture caught up in the system. Thankfully, northern Minnesota is currently subjected to more adverse drought conditions due to the rainfall we have received in the southern half of the state, and this system would bring some much needed widespread precipitation to the area. The upper level system continues to move towards Hudson Bay as it occludes and weakens early to midday Sunday as another system then looks to form ahead of another trough sweeping through the area into early next week.
Compared to guidance 24 hours ago, the late Sunday into Monday system has seen increasing precipitation chances and intensity with PWAT values increasing by around 1/4 to 1/2 inch, with widespread rainfall arriving during the first half of Monday. The forcing is fairly broad due to a low level jet bringing a plume of gulf moisture northwards in addition to a broad upper level trough ejecting a shortwave ahead of the primary feature. Best case scenario for those that want to see more rainfall would be for this trend to continue with the position of the surface low in the perfect spot for a traditional broad area of precipitation within the warm conveyor belt region of the cyclone. Being a few days out, there is still quite a bit that could change, but the trend is going in the right direction. Thunderstorm potential for now looks present but not great, however until we see a few CAMs begin to pick up the system we will hold off on commenting further as forecast soundings have yet to show any real amount of instability.

Ensemble guidance shows potential for yet another round of widespread rainfall towards Wednesday next week, however there is about a 60/40 split in membership between another round of precipitation and dry weather such that we need to wait a few days to see the trend before trending the forecast beyond a 30-40 PoP.
Temperatures remain on the warmer side in the 70s and 80s throughout the period, only falling behind the potential cold front in the middle of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/
Issued at 555 AM CDT Thu May 16 2024

The last of the showers will be gone around the start of the period for EAU, with MVFR CIGS for most sites through the early afternoon before we begin to scatter out. Cloud base rises during the evening and overnight with FEW/SCT250 by period's end for all locations. Winds will shift towards 300-330 by the late period before returning to 180-210 on Friday.

KMSP...No additional concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ FRI...VFR. Wind SE 10-15kts.
SAT...VFR, slim chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SE to W 15-20G30kts.
SUN...VFR, chc MVFR/SHRA late. Wind SW 10-15kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.

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