Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Champlain, NY

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
As of 1226 AM EDT Tuesday...The occluded front continues its eastward trek across the region early this morning, and looks to lie near the Champlain Valley at this hour. The bulk of the shower activity has already started to exit to our east, and generally expect isolated to widely scattered showers through daybreak. Winds have been a bit gustier than previously anticipated; have seen gusts of 30 to 40 mph in portions of the Adirondacks and here in the Champlain Valley over the past 60 minutes or so. This should be relatively short lived, but have bumped up winds/gusts for the next couple of hours. Otherwise, temperatures are generally in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and don't anticipate much in the way of cooling given the gusty winds and cloud cover. The forecast is generally in good shape, but did make a few adjustments to temperatures in addition to the aforementioned changed to winds.

Previous discussion...A warm front is lifting northeast presently. Precipitation is focused over northern New York where mid-level dry air is less substantial. The warm front is getting zipped up into an occluded front as it crosses.
Additional precipitation will push east with the occluded front and elevated instability of about 100-200 J/kg. The overall thinking is that there will be some convective elements and localized moderate rainfall rates with favorable 850mb transport and PWATs just over 1". Thunder probabilities are non-zero, and did throw it in very briefly in southern St. Lawrence County.
HRRR and NBM forecast precipitation amounts are largely unchanged, so there's fairly high confidence in a tenth to quarter inch of rain with locally high amounts to a third. There will be some wait time before the west wind shift bring colder temperatures. Thus, warm low temperatures in the 40s to about 50 are expected Tuesday morning.

Tuesday afternoon, the cold air will finally start pushing into the region as the decaying upper low slides northeast.
Temperatures will only warm into the 50s across most of northern New York, but perhaps still near 60 close to Lake Champlain, and then Vermont should warm into the 60s again before that cold air reaches the Green Mountain state. Mainly dry weather is expected, although mid-level moisture will just graze the international border midday. There is some surface instability, but also a staunch inversion at 700mb. A few orographic showers along our northern mountains are possible, but only light rain is expected with such shallow moisture. Conditions will be breezy, Tuesday, especially for northern New York where gusts 25 to 35 mph will develop. A steady west or west-northwest wind will result lower 30s to lower 40s for temperatures by Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 308 PM EDT Monday...A period of dry and seasonable weather is expected mid-week as high pressure builds into the region. Daytime high temperatures will be quite seasonable on Wednesday, climbing into the 50s and 60s with overnight lows in the 30s and low 40s. Some blue skies and sun are likely Wednesday under the high pressure, which will make for a pleasant spring day. Temperatures on Thursday will be even warmer, with most locations in the 60s to near 70.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 308 PM EDT Monday...After a stretch of dry weather, chances for precipitation look to return late this week.
Compared to the previous forecast, the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance support the chance for some light rain showers Thursday night although we'll have to see how guidance continues to trend over the next several cycles. Another round of precipitation looks to arrive Friday night into the weekend as an upper level trough begins to dig into the Great Lakes.
Showers will arrive late Friday as a warm front lifts across the region, continuing into Saturday ahead of the associated cold front, with cooler and drier air moving in the front making for a dry second half of the weekend and start of next week.
Temperatures will be the warmest on Friday, with highs in the upper 60s and 70s. Saturday will be a bit cooler with the showery weather and clouds, with even cooler on Sunday behind the cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Through 00Z Wednesday...Conditions will mainly be VFR over the next 24 hours. Some light rain is moving into the area, but so far conditions have remained VFR. There's still very dry air in place at the surface. Ceilings will trend towards 4000-8000 ft agl. A few rain showers could produce visibilities of 4-6 SM.
Probability of rain and lower visibilities will be greatest between about 19z and 04z before precipitation slides east.
South winds have developed and are gusty at times. Areas of LLWS are expected behind the warm front as 2000ft agl southwesterly winds increase up to 35 to 45 knots between roughly 22z and 06z, then diminishing. Beyond 06z, rain will exit east, and surface winds will begin to become west- southwest to southwesterly and increase to 9 to 15 knots sustained with gusts 18 to 25 knots.
Pockets of 2000-3000 ft agl ceilings are possible before clouds begin to scatter about 12-14z.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday: Mainly MVFR, with areas IFR possible. Chance SHRA.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.