Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Champlain, NY

KEY MESSAGES
As of 200 AM EST Sunday...

1. Cooler and unsettled weather will persist through the first half of this week with rounds of showers expected.

2. Unsettled weather continues through the end of the week, likely trending cooler by next weekend.

DISCUSSION
As of 138 AM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1: Precipitation will continue to slowly wind down through the early morning hours as an upper level low pinwheels away to the east. While most of the precipitation is falling as rain or drizzle, temperatures in the higher elevations and portions of the Northeast Kingdom are in the low to mid 30s; our sensor on Mt Mansfield at just short of 4000 ft is reading 28F as of 1 am. Therefore expect these areas are seeing periods of snow, though ground temperatures should be warm enough to preclude any accumulation below 2500 ft.
Cameras on some of the higher elevation roads in the Northeast Kingdom courtesy of VTrans do appear to show a bit of snow falling with no accumulation noted, though it's difficult to discern for sure due to darkness and thick fog. These lingering showers will taper to an end by mid to late morning or so, allowing for a dry Sunday afternoon. Highs will be in the low 40s to low 50s, with a bit of a brisk wind at 5 to 15 mph with local gusts to around 20 mph.

Additional rounds of showers are expected then through the first half of this week as we remain under the influence of a large upper level low gyrating over eastern Canada. Multiple shortwaves rotating around the base of this low will pivot overhead, keeping the weather unsettled over the next few days. Much like our current system, much of the shower activity will fall as rain, especially during the daylight hours, but some snow will be possible across the higher terrain and portions of the Adirondacks/Northeast Kingdom, especially overnight. Any accumulation will be minimal below 2500 ft, but we'll be watching closely to see if Mt Mansfield is able to break the record for latest 1" of snowfall (Nov 9). Highs will be in the low/mid 40s to low 50s each day, with lows falling into the upper 20s to mid/upper 30s. Winds will remain on the breezy side, but not strong enough to cause any significant impacts.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The large Hudson Bay low will continue to dominate the weather across our area, bringing multiple shortwaves into region through the weekend. Wednesday should see lingering, terrain driven mix of rain and snow showers throughout the day. Models on Thursday remain torn on the timing and placement of warm front ahead of the developing low in the Ohio Valley. The solutions could bring a rain- snow mix, or keep things further south and keep our area relatively dry during the day. For Friday and the weekend, models are still keying in on significant closed low swinging down through the Mid- Atlantic region and then up the coastline, bringing several shots of rain and rain/snow mix over the weekend. The current runs are leaning towards a wetter solution for our region which could bring the first significant snow of the season. The details should come into better focus over the next few days.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Through 06Z Monday...Low ceilings, rain, and mist will persist overnight, resulting in MVFR, IFR, and LIFR conditions through 14Z Sunday. Highest chance of persistent LIFR ceilings will remain at KMPV, KRUT, and KSLK, where ceilings are observed ceilings are 300 to 400 ft AGL and no improvement is expected until late morning Sunday. Other TAF sites are starting off the TAF period with mainly MVFR ceilings, though lowering of ceilings to IFR with occasional periods of LIFR is expected during the overnight hours. Visibilities will also decrease at times at all TAF sites overnight due to periods of rain and mist, though ceilings will be the main factor driving the lowest flight conditions.

Showers will scatter out and ceilings will slowly lift after 14Z. However, improvement will be slow, especially at higher elevation TAF sites where IFR conditions could persist into the early afternoon. By late afternoon and evening Sunday, ceilings areawide will lift to MVFR/VFR levels.

Winds will remain from the north generally 6-12 knots, with some occasional gusts 15 to 18 knots.

Outlook...

Monday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Chance SHRA.
Monday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance RA.
Veterans Day: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Chance RA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance SN, Slight chance RA.
Thursday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Slight chance RA.

MARINE
A Lake Wind Advisory remains in effect through early this morning. Northwest winds of 15 to 25 kt will continue through the early morning hours, remaining strongest across the broad and southern portions of the lake. Winds will subside to 5 to 15 kt and remain so much of the day today.

BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
VT...None.
NY...None.