Sunrise 5:47 AM   Sunset 8:29 PM Moonrise 5:31 AM   Moonset 10:10 PM

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PZZ255 Coastal Waters From Cascade Head To Florence Or Out 10 Nm- 847 Am Pdt Tue Sep 13 2022
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 pm pdt this evening - .
Rest of today - SW wind to 5 kt. Wind waves sw 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 2 ft at 9 seconds. Widespread dense fog and a chance of showers in the morning, then areas of dense fog in the afternoon. Tonight - N wind to 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Areas of dense fog in the evening. Patchy dense fog after midnight. Wed - N wind 5 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Wed night - NW wind 5 kt. Wind waves W 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 9 seconds. Thu - SE wind 5 kt, veering to W in the afternoon. Wind waves se 1 ft at 4 seconds, shifting to the W at 4 seconds in the afternoon. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Thu night - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves N 1 ft at 4 seconds. NW swell 3 ft at 10 seconds. Fri - N wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 3 ft. Sat - NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 4 ft.

PZZ200 258 Am Pdt Thu May 9 2024
Synopsis for the southern washington and northern oregon coast - High pres will remain anchored offshore through the weekend. Thermal low pres along the coast will move little through Fri, then shift well inland Fri night and Sat.

FXUS66 KPQR 091016 AAA AFDPQR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Portland OR 316 AM PDT Thu May 9 2024

SYNOPSIS
A stout ridge of high pressure continues to build across the region the latter half of the week resulting in a prolonged period of dry weather and rapidly warming temperatures day to day. It still appears near record breaking heat is in store Friday into Saturday's daytime highs climb in the mid 80s to near 90 across the inland valleys. Cooler onshore flow returns Saturday night into Sunday resulting in slightly cooler temperatures for the early to middle portion of next week albeit still near to slightly above seasonal norms.

SHORT TERM
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...Ridging continues, with essentially no cloud cover throughout the CWA as of 3am Thursday.
Going forward through Thursday and Friday the ridge will continue to amplify, tilting eastward into British Columbia and increasing offshore flow over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures warm going into Thursday, with the warmest temperatures on Friday and Saturday afternoon. Given the development of low-level offshore flow and surface thermal trough building overhead as well, confidence is very high(90-99%) in afternoon temperatures reaching into the low 80s across the inland valleys Thursday followed by another 6-10 degree jump into the mid/upper 80s to near 90 Friday. Temperatures across the Willamette Valley, SW Washington, and other inland valleys appear very similar on Saturday compared to the day prior (Friday) - both days present a 40-60% chance to break 90 degrees in the Portland/Vancouver Metro according to the NBM.

The coast will be more uncertain with regards to temperature, as model guidance is beginning to show the thermal trough shifting inland Saturday, trending towards cooler temperatures. High temperatures on Friday look to remain around the low 70s, but Saturday sees much cooler high temperatures into the mid 60s.
Saturday looks to only have a 10-30% chance of being above 70 at the coast.

These unseasonably warm temperatures will no doubt cause some people to flock to the rivers, lakes, and ocean beaches of SW Washington and NW Oregon. It is important to remember that rivers and lakes remain dangerously cold with water temperatures mainly in the 40s. Such temperatures can easily cause cold water shock for those without proper cold water gear. The bright sun and warm temperatures can make the cold water look refreshing, but the consequences of jumping in could be deadly.
Be sure to bring a life vest and be extremely cautious around area rivers, especially given the swift currents also in place! -Schuldt/JLiu


LONG TERM
Sunday through Wednesday...More widespread cooling is expected on Sunday as the ridge of high pressure withers in response to a weak upper-level shortwave pressing eastward towards the coast. The axis of the near surface thermal trough also shifts east of the Cascades into the Columbia Basin - widespread westerly onshore flow returns. The marine layer will likely remain too shallow for much in the way of morning cloudiness inland through Sunday, but the upper ridge may weaken enough for some low clouds to push into the inland valleys for a few hours Monday morning. Cannot rule out patchy light drizzle at the coast Sunday night into Monday morning as well, especially given the weak upper- level shortwave progressing overhead providing some added support.

WPC cluster analysis is beginning to move more towards a solution favoring ridging re-developing by the middle of next week. Around 80% of ensemble members display relatively strong ridging by Wednesday next week, allowing temperatures to climb back into at least the upper 70s to low 80s. Still around a 20% chance of another trough developing, which would bring more seasonable temperatures and light rain showers back to the area. -Schuldt/JLiu



AVIATION
High pres will remain over the region, with dry northerly flow aloft. This will maintain VFR, with variable high clouds at times. Low level northerly flow will kick up by midday, with winds gusting 25 to 30 kt along the coast, and 15-25 kt farther inland including the inland TAFs sites. Winds ease tonight, with VFR continuing.

PDX AND APPROACHES...High pressure will maintain VFR with variable high clouds. Will see north to northeast winds by midday, with gusts 15-20 kt for the afternoon into early evening.

MARINE
No big changes, as strong high pressure remains anchored offshore. Meanwhile, thermal trough will hug the south Oregon coast, building northward later today into tonight. With this pattern, will maintain gusty northerly winds on the waters, with gusts 20 to 25 kt today north of Cascade Head, and gusts 25 to 30 kt to the south. As thermal trough builds north later today into tonight, will see winds near shore relax back below 20 kt. Gusty winds will continue offshore well into overnight hours.

Thermal trough will push the tighter pressure gradient further offshore later tonight and Fri, as the thermal trough expands northward along the north Oregon coast. This will push the gusty north winds farther offshore, with lighter east to northeast winds on most of the coast waters, especially nearshore. But, with the thermal trough shifting back to the Coast Range Fri evening, will see wind flip back to north or northwest Fri evening.

Seas mostly 5 to 8 ft today into tonight, with the higher seas more choppy as being dominated by the gusty winds. Seas stay at 5 to 6 ft into Sat.

Thermal trough will shift much farther inland on Sat and Sun, with north to northwest winds returning to the coastal waters. Will not be as strong, but generally gusts 20 to 25 kt at times in the afternoons and early evenings. Seas mostly 6 to 8 ft.

PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OR...None.
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM today for PZZ210.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM today for PZZ251>253-271 Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM Friday for PZZ272-273.

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Nestucca Bay entrance
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Thu -- 01:15 AM PDT     8.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:52 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM PDT     -1.85 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:01 PM PDT     6.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:18 PM PDT     2.31 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 08:32 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:12 PM PDT     Moonset
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Nestucca Bay entrance, Oregon, Tide feet

Kernville
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Thu -- 01:44 AM PDT     6.69 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:53 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:34 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 09:17 AM PDT     -1.35 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:30 PM PDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:31 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 08:59 PM PDT     1.68 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:11 PM PDT     Moonset
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Kernville, Siletz River, Oregon, Tide feet

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