Harrisville, MI Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisville, MI

June 23, 2024 12:21 AM EDT (04:21 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:37 AM   Sunset 9:14 PM
Moonrise 10:22 PM   Moonset 5:50 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:202406230945;;495829 Fzus63 Kdtx 230139 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 939 pm edt Sat jun 22 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

Synopsis - A stationary front is draped across northern lake huron this evening. The next low pressure system around 29.60 inches tracks along this front tonight and will pull a cold front through the region on Sunday.
lhz361>363-230945- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- lake huron from sturgeon point to alabaster mi beyond 5nm off shore- 939 pm edt Sat jun 22 2024

Rest of tonight - East winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the southeast after midnight. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms this evening - .then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.

Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering to the northwest in the afternoon. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning - .then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.

Sunday night - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and overnight.

Monday - Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Monday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning - .then decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Showers likely. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers late in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 5 feet.

Wednesday - West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet until early morning.

Thursday - North winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the east in the late evening and early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LHZ300
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 230352 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1152 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain threat continues into the night.

- Strong to severe storms remain possible into the evening.

- Near seasonal temperatures with periodic shower and thunderstorm chances next week.

UPDATE
Issued at 951 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

A double-barreled surface low pressure is near the Manitou Islands and over se WI. The warm front has lifted into northern lower MI, with dew points near 70f at TVC/CAD/Grayling/W Branch.
This will get shunted eastward, as the low and trailing cold front move thru and exit into Sunday morning. There is pocket of lingering respectable instability in the warm sector, with MlCape values in high triple digits. And a broader area of showers and a few TSRA are moving in to take advantage of this.
But even the smaller cluster of showers in the Petoskey area is very rainfall-efficient, dumping around or a bit more than 0.50" of rain as it moves thru.

Another round of widespread, potentially heavy rain will cross the south half of the forecast area tonight. Will be keeping an eye on radar precip and storm trends. Stronger/potentially severe storms appear much more likely to impact southern lower MI... but wouldn't rule out a stronger storm this far north.
Also appears the heaviest precip will skirt our southern fringe, with perhaps around an inch of additional rainfall near and south of M-55, tapering to the north.

As the surface low crosses our area, showers to the north will pivot back into eastern upper MI. Showers will also more widespread up that way overnight. In between, over far northern lower MI, a relative lull in precip coverage should develop overnight.

SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:

PV maxima shoving its way through WI...with surface low centered just SW of GRB at 18z
Complex boundaries across the area
with a warm/stationary front wrapping from the surface low over the Door and Leelanau Peninsulas and draping down into the Saginaw Bay region
Subtle surface convergence from TC to near Lake City
and another potential wind shift from near GRB toward LDM. 40+kt LLJ not entirely perpendicular to the strengthening boundary...but enough for some continued theta-e advection, particularly with swath of SW- NE oriented nearly 2" pwats aligning with the LLJ. Dry slotting developing on the SW corridor of the surface low over central WI...with some signals of more cellular/surface-based development there amid better convective instability. Broad area of generally stratiform rain moving overhead attm...though slightly more convective signals developing in spots, particularly in the vicinity of that convergence zone within the warm sector.

Upstream PV niblet and its attendant dry slotting over WI expected to move into the area this evening/tonight...dragging a cold front into the region behind the surface low expected to trek across northern Lower (likely the Tip of the Mitt) tonight. Continued efficient rain expected with this; severe weather still remains a possibility into at least the evening with decent deep layer shear and potential for better instability hanging on into at least part of the night. Expecting cooling and drying behind the cold front into Sunday morning from NW-SE...with slightly gusty northwesterly winds developing on the back of the system. Think we will get some wrap around nonsense over NE Lower and the EUP Sunday afternoon as another wave drops in...which could generate a few more showers or even storms, though these may not be very robust either.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

Heavy rain threat continues into tonight...Think the heavy rain threat will hang on over the M-32 corridor and south through the evening...actually, through the bulk of the period, as the next batch of forcing moves in with the pv max tonight...focusing things more over NE Lower and points toward M-55/Saginaw Bay. A lot of uncertainty in the placement of bullseyes, but still not out of the question that some areas could see a localized additional 1-2" of rain overnight given the environment and additional forcing expected to drive through. Still some concern for either a northern shift in the bullseyes tonight, and/or a secondary QPF max over the EUP/Tip of the Mitt tonight into Sunday morning with the surface low driving through...particularly noting some signals in guidance for the surface low to track across the Tip of the Mitt. Do not have high confidence in the QPF forecast that's going out, as it effectively shows signals for where the higher totals could be...but just low confidence in placement...as well as potential for much higher amounts than currently forecast. Additionally concerned that we may have to watch for subtle areas of training convection.

Severe threat continues...Cohorts in the office attm watching some embedded spinnies along a subtle convergence boundary down near central Lower...which was one of the concerns mentioned in the AM update: that embedded spin-ups in the atmosphere may just end up being the primary severe concern. Not sure that much in the way of wind will get to the surface this afternoon/tonight over our region, apart from any downbursts with stronger convection toward Saginaw Bay where there is a better shot at mixing things down to the surface. Think this idea will hang on through the afternoon. May have to watch areas back toward NW Lower (CAD to mbL) as clouds attempt to break up in the wake of the convection with some dry slotting slipping in ahead of the PV max. While there could be some downward momentum transfer...soundings suggest we'll have a strong inversion in place around 800mb which could keep winds from becoming too much of a problem...though suppose some hail threat may develop if storms end up getting elevated like this.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 411 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Pattern Synopsis/Pattern Forecast:

Large scale flow regime completely unlocks this week, with full retrogression of sub-tropical ridge axis into the Desert Southwest and penetration of northern stream flow into the northern Conus and Great Lakes region. This sets the stage for more seasonable temperatures and periodic shower and thunderstorm chances across northern Michigan.

Primary Forecast Concerns/Challenges:

Temperatures trends and addressing additional shower and thunderstorm concerns through next week.

Details:

As mentioned above, much more northern stream influences into the Great Lakes region next week. Several shortwave troughs set to crest western ridge and drop southeast into the region, each accompanied by what appears to be appreciable forcing and a decent pre-frontal moisture environment. While still some subtle timing differences with these waves (definitely to be expected in such an aggressive flow regime), decent agreement amongst all mid-range guidance that first such wave arrives during the Monday night-Tuesday period. Much too early to get into any specifics regarding storm potential, but what looks to be decent deep layer shear and respectable moisture profiles through the vertical does at least raise an eyebrow to brief heavy rain and severe concerns. Will continue to monitor of course. More energy set to arrive the latter portion of the week, again supporting more shower and storm potential. Multi-period mention of rain chances through the extended centers on the remaining timing uncertainty of these passing waves. Actual rain chances will likely be relegated to a much shorter time window...with those specifics working themselves out as we head further into next week. Definitely not seeing any evidence of prolonged heat in such a pattern. Temperatures will vary of course based off frontal passages, but overall flavor to temperatures should be well within the range of what is considered normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1152 PM EDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Low clouds expanding again tonight, then improving Sunday.

Low pressure will cross northern MI tonight. An additional round or two of SHRA/TSRA will occur, with low vsbys at times, and lowering cigs. IFR/LIFR conditions will become increasingly common. Showers will diminish somewhat Sunday, and cigs will slowly improve.

Winds will become nw on Sunday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...Flood Watch until 8 AM EDT Sunday for MIZ016>018-020>036-041- 042-099.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind AirWater WavesinHgDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi32 minS 14G16 57°F2 ft


Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KAPN74 sm27 minSSW 0810 smMostly Cloudy72°F70°F94%29.62
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Gaylord, MI,




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