Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 230436 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 1136 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

UPDATE. Issued at 942 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Moisture convergence axis in warm air advection regime and along deformation zone continues to kick off pockets of light snow, at times mixed with rain, across eastern upper Michigan. Per surface observations and temperature trends, additional accumulations have been light this evening. Despite radar returns blossoming further south, impressively deep dry nose centered between H5 and H8 on local 00z sounding preventing any precipitation from reaching the surface across northern lower Michigan. Expect moisture convergence to bow further north with time overnight, likely ending the more widespread precipitation across eastern upper. As such, have gone ahead and expired inherited winter weather advisory. That dry wedge across northern lower will be stubborn to yield with forcing and moisture advection through that dry layer weak at best. Do feel that areas along the Lake Michigan shore may moisten enough to allow some light snow to reach the surface by sunrise Thursday. Dry weather should prevail across the remainder of northern lower Michigan. Plenty of clouds and southerly winds will keep conditions seasonably mild overnight, with readings by morning only in the 20s and lower 30s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 411 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

. Accumulating slushy snow in Eastern Upper through the evening & overnight .

Ridging persists across the ern seaboard with surface high pressure stretching from New England down into Georgia. An upstream trough is pushing into the Mississippi Valley with weak 500mb height falls out ahead of it. Abnormally high (2-3 St. Deviations above average) PWATs between 0.5 and 0.6" will continue to stream up through IL and WI before pooling into a deformation zone laid out across the the UP . supporting snow in the UP. Snow stretches from WI back down through MO. Breezy SW winds have been decreasing through the day between the slowly departing ern high and the surface low dragging a slowing cold front across Ontario. Light snow started in ern upper around Noon and has been ongoing ever since. Snow is expected to continue there through the evening and overnight with some drizzle possibly mixed in closer to the shore (where warmer BL profiles may allow for some melting of flakes). Some question as to whether this area of snow will sag south across the tip of the mitt. The best forcing and fgen looks to remain in ern upper (if not even a little north of there). But if guidance is to be believed the best 850mb moisture transport sinks south across the straits and south. Either way the snow is expected to be the wet slushy variety with forecast profiles showing a small DGZ and warmer than -10 C for the bottom 10 kft of the atmosphere, resulting in roughly 10:1 SLRs.

An additional area of snow may move into our southwest counties later tonight. This will be thanks to a better slug of moisture moving into that area, ahead of another shortwave moving into the upper Great Lakes from Iowa.

Overall 2 to 4 inches of snow still expected in western portions of Chippewa and Mackinac counties. Very light/nuisance-type snow possible in areas south & west of TVC (if any, confidence in this occurring is low).

Overnight lows look to be slightly warmer than last night, with areas closer to Saginaw Bay the coldest in the low to mid 20s. Areas along the Michigan shoreline and nrn Lake Huron remain near 30.

SHORT TERM. (Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 411 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Pretty minimal . just persistent mostly light precipitation into the weekend.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast: Pacific-dominant upper level flow pattern continues at midweek across the CONUS with a train of short wave troughs extending back into the Pacific. Bit of a split in the flow upstream with a northern branch short wave trough moving into the northern High Plains . and a stronger wave emerging from the subtropical jet spinning northeast into Missouri/Iowa on the heels of a strong (given the latitude) upper low off Florida's east coast. Mid level (700mb) confluence/deformation axis lies across the Upper Peninsula between the midwest wave and a low over Hudson Bay . around which the coldest air resides (with apologies to those poor souls in Florida). Evolution of the southern branch short wave trough is the main focus in the short term period . with northern branch wave containing a nice lobe of cold air and jet energy poised to drop into the southern branch feature . with the anticipated result being a compact upper low over the mid Mississippi Valley by Friday that lifts northeast into Indiana/Ohio by early Saturday. Sharp col region/deformation axis will lie to the north of this circulation . so how far northward it can get will dictate impacts on northern Michigan weather as the system tracks into the northeast by the end of the weekend.

Elongated surface high pressure extends from the northern Atlantic southwest to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Strong warm advection around the western periphery of the anticyclone into the southern/central Plains with better low level moisture creeping northward across Texas/Oklahoma. Pressure gradient becomes more "mushy" across the eastern CONUS Thursday as high pressure retreats into the western Atlantic while evolution of pressure pattern over the midwest awaits of arrival of developing southern branch short wave trough. Cold high pressure builds southeast into far northern Ontario . pushing a cold front into Upper Michigan Thursday. Stronger easterly gradient sets up for Friday between high pressure moving into Quebec and pressure falls over the Ohio Valley . with a surface low likely moving into southern Lower during the day Saturday.

Primary Forecast Concerns: A rather drawn out precipitation event looks to unfold through the short term period with persistent isentropic ascent ahead of organizing southern branch system . and some increasing dynamic forcing as the upper level wave approaches later Friday/Saturday. Ongoing snowfall across the Upper Peninsula will be augmented in coverage with snow spreading across Lower Michigan Thursday morning as low level dry wedge is gradually overcome from west to east. Snowfall may be periodic in nature through Thursday night especially across northern Lower . probably most persistent across eastern Upper where 2-3 inches of snow expected Thursday/Thursday night . 1-2 inches west of I-75 during that same time period and generally less than 2 inches east of I-75. Snow ratios not expected to be too outrageous (on the order of 10:1 to 14:1 from south to north).

Friday looks to be more of the same as mid level circulation closes off and swings northeast into the Ohio Valley . but there will be some precipitation type concerns. Unlike some recent southern stream systems over the past two months . moisture not forecast to be totally outrageous with this system . precipitable water values above 0.50 inch but "only" +1 to +2 standard deviations. Persistent low/mid level isentropic ascent and some increasingly difluent upper level flow as short wave trough pivots northeast . like Thursday expect precipitation to be periodic in nature. Potential for a surface based warm layer changing precipitation to rain or at least a mix of rain/snow will be an issue especially along/west of the US- 131 corridor in northwest Lower Friday afternoon into Friday evening Periods of mostly snow will continue into Saturday. increasing easterly flow off Lake Huron will bring some marine modified air into northeast Lower coastal counties and thus possibly some rain mixing in along the US-23 corridor possibly by Saturday morning. A couple of interesting possibilities with regard to QPF Saturday: One is potential dry slotting wrapping into northern Lower which would certainly kill precipitation potential for a time (and at least introduce the threat for drizzle/freezing drizzle). On the other hand is steeper mid level lapse rates overtopping a low level theta-e ridge . at least implying reduced stability especially along leading edge of any dry slotting (better convective instability potential) So some things to consider going forward. though right now overall snow accumulations Friday through Saturday will be on the light side (especially Saturday given precip type concerns) unless later trends dictate otherwise.

LONG TERM. (Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 411 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Not a cold looking pattern at all on the large scale . there is some spread in the ensemble temperature guidance beyond Monday though most of the spread is in regard to overnight lows (clear vs cloudy). Split flow still looks to rule the roost. with the potential for the development of another southern branch short wave trough in the midweek period and keeping things on the mild side for the upper Great Lakes. But nothing high impact appears on the longer term horizon.

AVIATION. (For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night) Issued at 1134 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Conditions expected to deteriorate heading through this morning as low clouds and light snow, mixed with rain, spreads northeast across the region. Steadiest precipitation expected across the western half of the area, including KMBL, KTVC, and KPLN. This is where the most significant vis restrictions to IFR are anticipated. Snow accumulations should remain fairly light, on the order of an inch or so. Snow to liquid ratios will by below normal for this time of year, likely around or under 10 to 1. Light winds expected through the duration.

MARINE. Issued at 411 PM EST Wed Jan 22 2020

Wind and waves will continue to diminish this afternoon and evening as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes behind the departing high pressure. Winds remain southwesterly through the evening before backing to more southerly late overnight into Thursday morning. Some gusts into the low and mid 20s are still expected for the next few hours, thus will continue the Small Craft Advisory into the evening hours.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY until 5 AM EST Thursday for LMZ341-342- 344>346. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . mb NEAR TERM . STJ SHORT TERM . JPB LONG TERM . JPB AVIATION . mb MARINE . STJ

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI	67 mi	27 min	SSW 7 G 8	30°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065	67 mi	49 min	SSW 5.1 G 7	30°F			1020.4 hPa	22°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	75 mi	42 min	S 6	10.00 mi	Fair	29°F	19°F	66%	1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (2,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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