Monday, June14, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 5:36AMSunset 9:11PM Monday June 14, 2021 11:30 PM EDT (03:30 UTC) Moonrise 8:15AMMoonset 11:47PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 942 Pm Edt Mon Jun 14 2021
Rest of tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the west in the late evening and overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely early in the morning. A chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers until early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:202106150815;;281093 FZUS63 KDTX 150142 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 942 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A trough of low pressure around 29.80 inches will finish dropping through the region tonight. High pressure around 30.10 inches will then build across the region Tuesday become firmly established across the northern and central Great Lakes through the remainder of the work week. LHZ362-363-150815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 150141 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 941 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

UPDATE. Issued at 941 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Cool Canadian high pressure continues to build into the Western Great Lakes late this evening. Residual moisture combined with diurnal instability and some lingering cyclonic flow resulted in spotty shower and thunderstorm development for areas along and east of I-75 this afternoon/evening. This convection has diminished and dropped south out of our CWA. Skies have become mostly clear across our entire CWA . and will remain so thru the overnight hours. Clear skies and diminishing winds combined with a rather cool airmass will allow overnight lows to drop into the upper 40s and lower 50s.

NEAR TERM. (Through Tonight) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

. Much cooler tonight .

High impact weather potential: Minimal. May see an isolated thunderstorm or two this afternoon, but nothing severe expected.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Pattern amplification talked about yesterday continues, driven in large part by strong anti-cyclonically curved upper jet streak extending from the Pacific Northwest to the western Great Lakes (bowing north into northern Canada). Upper level ridge south of this jet streak impressive to say the least, with nearly 600 decameter center near the Four Corners, with ridge apex extending north into the northern reaches of Saskatchewan. Downstream response is as one would expect, with deep troughing maturing across northeast NOAM, including the Great Lakes. Several waves embedded in attendant north flow aloft, with last nights rain-producing wave now well to our southeast, with secondary wave dropping south across the area early this afternoon.

Deep north flow will continue for the next several days, bringing will it sharply cooler conditions. Overhead shortwave will exit quickly south of our area this evening, leaving behind dry conditions tonight.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges:

Addressing any shower/storm threat the remainder of this afternoon and overnight temperature trends.

Details:

Still expecting to see some isolated showers and thunderstorms across parts of northeast lower Michigan this afternoon as mixed layer cape profiles approach a few hundred joules/kg and with no convective inhibition. Any showers will come to a quick end this evening as shortwave support is lost and instability wanes. Clear to partly cloudy skies expected overnight. North winds will continue to usher in a progressively cooler airmass, helping drop temperatures into the upper 40s to middle 50s (actually about normal for this time of year).

SHORT TERM. (Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

. Cooler, drier weather ahead .

High Impact Weather Potential: Fire weather concerns

Pattern Synopsis:

Impressive ridging centered over the 4 Corners will continue to amplify into Canada into midweek as troughing dips across the Great Lakes and NE CONUS. This amplified ridging will slide over the region on Thursday as a seasonably strong closed upper-level low will trek from the Pacific NW into the northern Great Plains. Surface high pressure will build from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes by Wednesday underneath subsidence aloft.

Forecast/Details:

Beautiful weather is expected across northern Michigan through the middle of this week. Surface high pressure in Canada will result in light northerly low-level flow across the area through Wednesday, helping to keep cooler, drier air in place. While expected highs in the low to mid 70s will be close to normal, it will feel much cooler after the very hot start to June. The dry airmass in place will lead to sunny/clear skies, precip-free weather, and fire weather concerns in areas of northern Michigan that haven't experienced much rainfall to start the month. With clear skies and weak winds as high pressure moves overhead, some chilly overnight temps are expected Tuesday night. Lows may dip into the upper 30s in some places across interior portions of the area. Afternoon highs should warm back up into the 80s on Thursday.

LONG TERM. (Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

High Impact Weather Potential: Low for now

A seasonably strong shortwave is expected to progress from the northern Great Plains over the Great Lakes by Friday night, providing support aloft for a cyclone that should trek across Ontario into Quebec. Mainly zonal upper-level flow is expected over the region heading into next week. The main focus will be the arrival of our next rain/thunder chances Thursday night. Current thoughts are that a line of showers and storms will initiate west of Lake Michigan Thursday afternoon and progress into Michigan during the overnight hours. Confidence isn't overly high in the CWA experiencing storms specifically, but many areas will at least have the chance to see rain. Additionally, a second round of showers/storms may initiate Friday afternoon across the area as prime forcing aloft from the shortwave moves overhead and before the main front slides through the state. This is highly dependent on the timing of the system, but the potential exists. If this is the case, ample shear aloft would be in place to support stronger storms, but instability would be the main question. Otherwise, highs in the low 80s are expected heading into the weekend before cooler temperatures arrive for the weekend following the frontal passage.

AVIATION. (For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening) Issued at 713 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Cool Canadian high pressure will continue to build southward into the Western Great Lakes thru Tuesday night. Residual showers and VFR CU will dissipate with loss of diurnal instability this evening . leaving clear skies and VFR vsbys thru tonight and Tuesday as subsidence further strengthens. Surface winds will remain northerly and diminish to around 10 kts after sunset tonight . and the strengthen again on Tuesday to 15 to 25 kts.

MARINE. Issued at 328 PM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Northwest winds expected to veer more northerly late tonight and Tuesday. Wind gusts will increase some on Tuesday, perhaps reaching small craft criteria on some nearshore waters. North winds slowly decrease in speed Tuesday night. Other than a few spotty showers this afternoon, dry and cooler weather will prevail.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

UPDATE . MR NEAR TERM . mb SHORT TERM . DJC LONG TERM . DJC AVIATION . MR MARINE . mb


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi31 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 55°F 1013.1 hPa53°F
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi21 min N 8 G 11 65°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi43 min N 9.9 G 16 65°F 54°F1013.1 hPa53°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi36 minNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy63°F49°F61%1013.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN3NW3NW5CalmCalmNW3CalmNW5N5NW10N8N7NW8CalmN7
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2 days agoNW4N4NE5NE5NW5NW4N4N6NE8E6E5E5E3E7E8E8E5E6E8E7N7N3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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