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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI

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Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 021853 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large scale upper-level blocking pattern continues with the ridge axis draped across the midsection of the CONUS having retrograded a bit now laid over the MS Valley and western Great Lakes. This ridging sandwiched between troughing over much of the west and east coasts. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through the forecast period as surface high pressure overhead this afternoon also retrogrades a bit into the upper MS Valley tonight. This will make way for a weak surface trough and narrow corridor of deeper moisture to pass through from north to south this evening and overnight. Minimal forcing and antecedent dry air should prevent any chance of precipitation through this time frame. By Friday afternoon, another weak mid-level perturbation ripples through larger scale parent ridging, which may provide enough forcing for ascent in the presence of another slight uptick in moisture to kick of an isolated diurnally driven shower/ storm across far northeast lower near Saginaw Bay, although if any convection is able to develop, it should remain rather brief and fleeting in nature.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Low PoPs near Saginaw Bay Friday afternoon?

After another sun-filled day across northern Michigan today, dotted with just a few fair weather cu across eastern upper and near Saginaw Bay. Expecting only a slight uptick in scattered cloud cover this evening/overnight with the passage of the aforementioned surface trough. Otherwise, lows ranging from the mid 50s across eastern upper to the low-mid 60s across all of northern lower.

Lots of sunshine anticipated once again during the day Friday, along with very warm temperatures as high temps range from the mid 80s to low 90s area-wide. Of courser, a few degrees cooler along the big lakes given anticipated lake breeze development in mainly light background wind fields. As was alluded to above, a weak wave aloft and a slight uptick in deeper moisture may prove to be enough to kick off an isolated shower/storm across sections of northeast lower. Expecting if this were to occur it'd be driven off the aforementioned inland penetrating lake breeze off of Lake Huron with the "best" chances across far northeast lower south of M-72/near Saginaw Bay. Needless to say, not a whole lot of confidence in any isolated showers/storms occurring. Any that are able to develop shouldn't last long in one location and unlikely to provide much in the way of appreciable rainfall.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

. Heat to continue .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Amplified (especially for Summer) and slow evolving pattern set to continue right through this Holiday weekend, with central NOAM and western Great Lakes centered ridging remaining bookended by east and west coast trough axes. Well above normal temperatures and recent string of dry weather will also continue as a result . with perhaps some increasing rain chances heading into the middle of next week. We shall see.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Just how warm to go each afternoon.

Details:

Heat no doubt continues, with a perfect trifecta of plenty of sunshine, warm low level thermal profiles, and quickly drying soils easily supporting highs this weekend well up into the 80s and lower 90s . with isolated mid 90s possible across interior sections of northeast lower Michigan. Pattern recognition with such heat and maintenance of a very weak pressure gradient supports a virtual lake breeze bonanza each afternoon, bringing some of natures air conditioning to those shoreline communities. Lack of any synoptic forcing leaves localized lake breeze convergence maxima to potentially drive shower development. With that said, maintenance of a warm layer up around H8 level and somewhat limited near surface moisture should negate any shower concerns through this period.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

The general idea for the extended portion of the forecast is for hot weather to continue with periodic chances for precipitation here and there . and perhaps a better chance toward the end of the period. The weekend ridging will flatten slightly for the start of the week . as a shortwave to our north makes a run across the top of the ridge through Tuesday. Precipitation chances may not be overwhelming . as the associated front may keep the majority of the rain and storms to our west or northwest. The next best chance of rain looks to come late in the period . or perhaps beyond the extended . as another shortwave moves through the top of the ridge Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge looks to strengthen on the backside of that mid-week shortwave . with signals for potentially strong ridging to return to the central US for the last half of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Solid VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period as high pressure overhead will gradually slide westward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. This will allow for a weak surface trough to pass north to south across northern MI this evening into tonight; however, the airmass will remain quite dry, with any inland fair weather cu this afternoon giving way to only scattered mid cloud tonight in conjunction with the aforementioned trough.

Light westerly flow will give way to developing lake breezes this afternoon, becoming light NW/N tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide westward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight, allowing for a weak surface trough to pass through northern Michigan. High pressure then settles back in overhead Friday night into the weekend. The air mass remains dry for the next several days, resulting in no rainfall. A light westerly wind will turn more northerly Friday, with afternoon lake breezes ongoing this afternoon and expected once again Friday. Very warm to hot temperatures and overlake stability, combined with the light winds, will result in no wind/wave issues.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . mb LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MG MARINE . MG

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI	67 mi	26 min	SSW 5.1 G 5.1	77°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065	67 mi	48 min	S 6 G 9.9	76°F	54°F		1014.6 hPa	66°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI	75 mi	41 min	S 7	10.00 mi	Fair	90°F	60°F	37%	1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI

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