Thursday, July2, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 9:14PM Thursday July 2, 2020 5:35 PM EDT (21:35 UTC) Moonrise 5:59PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 92% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Expires:202007030800;;211297 Fzus63 Kdtx 021930 Glflh Open Lake Forecast For Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 330 Pm Edt Thu Jul 2 2020 For Waters Beyond Five Nautical Miles Off Shore On Lake Huron Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum.
Synopsis..High pressure averaging 30.00 inches will continue to hold across the great lakes region leading to favorable boating conditions. A slight uptick in wind speeds will be observed across northern lake huron this evening through early Friday morning, where northwest flow with gusts around 20 knots will be probable. Lhz361-362-030800- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 330 pm edt Thu jul 2 2020
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Light and variable winds. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LHZ362


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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FXUS63 KAPX 021853 AFDAPX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 253 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

NEAR TERM. (Through Friday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast: Large scale upper-level blocking pattern continues with the ridge axis draped across the midsection of the CONUS having retrograded a bit now laid over the MS Valley and western Great Lakes. This ridging sandwiched between troughing over much of the west and east coasts. Little in the way of sensible weather anticipated through the forecast period as surface high pressure overhead this afternoon also retrogrades a bit into the upper MS Valley tonight. This will make way for a weak surface trough and narrow corridor of deeper moisture to pass through from north to south this evening and overnight. Minimal forcing and antecedent dry air should prevent any chance of precipitation through this time frame. By Friday afternoon, another weak mid-level perturbation ripples through larger scale parent ridging, which may provide enough forcing for ascent in the presence of another slight uptick in moisture to kick of an isolated diurnally driven shower/ storm across far northeast lower near Saginaw Bay, although if any convection is able to develop, it should remain rather brief and fleeting in nature.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Temperature trends. Low PoPs near Saginaw Bay Friday afternoon?

After another sun-filled day across northern Michigan today, dotted with just a few fair weather cu across eastern upper and near Saginaw Bay. Expecting only a slight uptick in scattered cloud cover this evening/overnight with the passage of the aforementioned surface trough. Otherwise, lows ranging from the mid 50s across eastern upper to the low-mid 60s across all of northern lower.

Lots of sunshine anticipated once again during the day Friday, along with very warm temperatures as high temps range from the mid 80s to low 90s area-wide. Of courser, a few degrees cooler along the big lakes given anticipated lake breeze development in mainly light background wind fields. As was alluded to above, a weak wave aloft and a slight uptick in deeper moisture may prove to be enough to kick off an isolated shower/storm across sections of northeast lower. Expecting if this were to occur it'd be driven off the aforementioned inland penetrating lake breeze off of Lake Huron with the "best" chances across far northeast lower south of M-72/near Saginaw Bay. Needless to say, not a whole lot of confidence in any isolated showers/storms occurring. Any that are able to develop shouldn't last long in one location and unlikely to provide much in the way of appreciable rainfall.

SHORT TERM. (Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

. Heat to continue .

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis/forecast:

Amplified (especially for Summer) and slow evolving pattern set to continue right through this Holiday weekend, with central NOAM and western Great Lakes centered ridging remaining bookended by east and west coast trough axes. Well above normal temperatures and recent string of dry weather will also continue as a result . with perhaps some increasing rain chances heading into the middle of next week. We shall see.

Primary forecast concerns/challenges: Just how warm to go each afternoon.

Details:

Heat no doubt continues, with a perfect trifecta of plenty of sunshine, warm low level thermal profiles, and quickly drying soils easily supporting highs this weekend well up into the 80s and lower 90s . with isolated mid 90s possible across interior sections of northeast lower Michigan. Pattern recognition with such heat and maintenance of a very weak pressure gradient supports a virtual lake breeze bonanza each afternoon, bringing some of natures air conditioning to those shoreline communities. Lack of any synoptic forcing leaves localized lake breeze convergence maxima to potentially drive shower development. With that said, maintenance of a warm layer up around H8 level and somewhat limited near surface moisture should negate any shower concerns through this period.

LONG TERM. (Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High Impact Weather Potential: Minimal

The general idea for the extended portion of the forecast is for hot weather to continue with periodic chances for precipitation here and there . and perhaps a better chance toward the end of the period. The weekend ridging will flatten slightly for the start of the week . as a shortwave to our north makes a run across the top of the ridge through Tuesday. Precipitation chances may not be overwhelming . as the associated front may keep the majority of the rain and storms to our west or northwest. The next best chance of rain looks to come late in the period . or perhaps beyond the extended . as another shortwave moves through the top of the ridge Thursday. Meanwhile, the upper level ridge looks to strengthen on the backside of that mid-week shortwave . with signals for potentially strong ridging to return to the central US for the last half of the week.

AVIATION. (For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon) Issued at 1247 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

Solid VFR conditions anticipated through the TAF period as high pressure overhead will gradually slide westward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight into Friday morning. This will allow for a weak surface trough to pass north to south across northern MI this evening into tonight; however, the airmass will remain quite dry, with any inland fair weather cu this afternoon giving way to only scattered mid cloud tonight in conjunction with the aforementioned trough.

Light westerly flow will give way to developing lake breezes this afternoon, becoming light NW/N tonight.

MARINE. Issued at 239 PM EDT Thu Jul 2 2020

High pressure overhead this afternoon will slide westward into the upper Mississippi Valley tonight, allowing for a weak surface trough to pass through northern Michigan. High pressure then settles back in overhead Friday night into the weekend. The air mass remains dry for the next several days, resulting in no rainfall. A light westerly wind will turn more northerly Friday, with afternoon lake breezes ongoing this afternoon and expected once again Friday. Very warm to hot temperatures and overlake stability, combined with the light winds, will result in no wind/wave issues.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MI . NONE. LH . NONE. LM . NONE. LS . NONE.

NEAR TERM . MG SHORT TERM . mb LONG TERM . FEF AVIATION . MG MARINE . MG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi26 min SSW 5.1 G 5.1 77°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi48 min S 6 G 9.9 76°F 54°F1014.6 hPa66°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi41 minS 710.00 miFair90°F60°F37%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE4E3CalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4N6N7NE8SE7SE7S11S9SE7
1 day agoNE7NE6NE6NE3NE4CalmN3N3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW4NW3NE3NE4NE5E6E6E7E8E7E6E5
2 days agoE7E6SE4CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmE3E4E6E7E7E7NE7NE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.