Thursday, August22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harrisville, MI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday August 22, 2019 10:16 PM EDT (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 12:30PM Illumination 50% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LHZ362 Lake Huron From Presque Isle Light To Sturgeon Point Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- Lake Huron From Sturgeon Point To Alabaster Mi Beyond 5nm Off Shore- 948 Pm Edt Thu Aug 22 2019
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of waterspouts. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet late in the evening.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until early morning. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 6 to 9 feet until early morning. Waves occasionally around 12 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 30 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots until early morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet in the late evening and early morning. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
LHZ362 Expires:201908230815;;060766 FZUS63 KDTX 230148 GLFLH Open Lake Forecast for Lake Huron National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 948 PM EDT Thu Aug 22 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on Lake Huron Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A broad Canadian high will become centered over Upper Michigan on Friday while strengthening to 30.30 inches. The expansive high pressure system will move across eastern Ontario on Saturday before becoming centered over the Canadian Maritimes by the end of the weekend. LHZ362-363-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harrisville, MI
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location: 44.99, -82.16     debug


Area Discussion for - Gaylord, MI
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Fxus63 kapx 230119
afdapx
area forecast discussion
national weather service gaylord mi
919 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Update
Issued at 919 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
large area of cool canadian high pressure continues to build
southward into the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes
region late this evening. Upper level trough axis remains
upstream... But will be swinging thru northern michigan overnight
into early Friday. This feature combined with cold air aloft may
kick off a few northerly flow lake effect rain showers overnight
into Friday morning. But overall... Our CWA will remain precip-free
overnight and rather cool for this time of year. Overnight low
temps will cool into the 40s for much of our cwa... And even into
the upper 30s for some inland higher terrain areas of northern
lower michigan.

Near term (through tonight)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Excellent sleeping weather tonight...

high impact weather... None expected.

Primary forecast concerns... Possible pops.

Looking at the mid afternoon surface weather map, high pressure
remains centered over northwest ontario with ridging extending
all the way into northern michigan. Visible satellite look shows
a scattered to broken cumulus field across the region (mainly
inland). Apx radar was void of returns.

High pressure and associated dry air continue to keep clouds from
building into showers so far this afternoon. However, a short
wave evident on water vapor imagery may be enough to tip the
scales and combine with the cold air aloft to produce a few lake
effect rain showers overnight across portions of northwest and
northeast lower. Elsewhere, clear to partly cloudy skies and light
winds will allow for chilly temperatures once again with a range
between the mid 30s and mid 40s.

Short term (Friday through Sunday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019

Quiet and pleasant late-summer weekend...

high impact weather potential: none.

Upper low initially over eastern canada will open up and eject.

500mb ridge axis will build eastward in its wake, and will be
overhead Sat night. A lingering cool airmass could contribute to a
few lake effect showers Friday, especially early. Otherwise, ridging
surface and aloft will provide for quiet and eventually warmer wx.

850mb temps will dip down to around 4c in northern reaches by fri
morning. So the question is whether we can scavenge some lake effect
showers. Fetch is N to nne, circa 10kt, allowing decoupling over
land tonight. Resulting land breeze development will result in mid-
lake convergence early Friday, especially on lake mi (skinny enough
to allow for land breeze collisions). Lake-induced CAPE values will
reach nearly 200j kg on warmer lake mi, closer to 100j kg on
northern lake huron. Pops already exist in portions of NW and ne
lower mi Friday morning. Given all of the above, will be boosting
expanding pops somewhat in NW lower mi, while reducing somewhat in
ne lower. Fetch is unfavorable for eastern upper mi. Land breeze
circulations helping to force these showers will fall apart as the
morning proceeds, and will have no precip in the afternoon.

Surface high pressure will be almost dead overhead Friday night, and
will gradually move east thru the weekend. Ridging will extend
westward back into northern mi, resulting in meager return flow.

Incoming surface cold front is only slowly advancing across the
dakotas on Sunday. So abundant dry air will result in quiet wx and
relatively clear skies.

Max temps Friday still a bit on the cool side, upper 60s to mid 70s.

Saturday will be in the low mid 70s, and 75 to 80f for Sunday. Min
temps 40s Friday night, mid 40s to mid 50s Sat night.

Long term (Sunday night through Thursday)
issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
upper ridge axis will get shunted eastward early next week as energy
advances across the northern states. Some phasing is possible with
ejecting southern stream waves from the mid ms valley. This
eventually carves out an upper low, which gradually wobbles across
manitoba and far northern ontario next week. Precip chances will
increase W to e, mainly on Monday night, gradually exiting with cold
fropa Tuesday. Unfavorable diurnal timing supports removing thunder,
at least for now. Monday will be another relatively warm day ahead
of the front, but the rest of the week will be cooler with the upper
low hovering to our north. For the same reason, sporadic small pops
are in order for the rest of next week.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Friday evening)
issued at 700 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
cool canadian high pressure will continue to build southward into
the upper mississippi valley and the great lakes region thru
Friday night. Overall dry weather is expected... Although there is
an outside chance for a brief light lake effect rain shower late
tonight into Friday morning as cool water rides of the relatively
warm lakes. SolidVFR conditions are expected thru the 24 hour taf
forecast period. Mainly light variable winds tonight will become
north at around 10 kts on Friday.

Marine
Issued at 245 pm edt Thu aug 22 2019
north northwest wind gusts of 15 to 20 knots will continue
through this afternoon but winds and waves should remain below
small craft criteria. Lighter winds overnight into Friday morning
before some gusts to around 15 knots Friday afternoon. However,
still no marine headlines are anticipated.

Apx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lh... None.

Lm... None.

Ls... None.

Update... Mr
near term... As
short term... Jz
long term... Jz
aviation... Mr
marine... As


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI 44 mi26 min NNW 14 G 16 64°F 66°F2 ft1017.6 hPa (+1.2)
APNM4 - Alpena Harbor Light, MI 67 mi16 min NW 4.1 G 5.1 62°F
LPNM4 - Alpena, MI - 9075065 67 mi46 min N 5.1 G 7 62°F 62°F1018.5 hPa47°F

Wind History for Alpena, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oscoda, Oscoda-Wurtsmith Airport, MI75 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair58°F53°F87%1018.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOSC

Wind History from OSC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N4CalmW3NW4CalmW6W4W4W3NW4NW9NW8N8N10N6N10N7NE10NE7NE8NE3W4Calm
1 day agoSW3SW3CalmCalmW3CalmW3CalmSW3CalmCalmW6W8W6SW6CalmCalmW7NE10NE10NE6NE3NE4NW3
2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SW6E6S8SW6S5S3SE5S5W4S3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Gaylord, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Gaylord, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.