SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Pattern/synopsis: High pressure, now over the Thumb, will drift east toward Lk Ontario thru Saturday. A 500mb ridge axis will be directly overhead Sat afternoon.

Forecast: Light to calm winds tonight, will allow for some fog again tonight in fog-prone locales. A bit of a s to sw breeze develops into Sat afternoon as the high shifts east. Some haze/ smoke aloft will persist. Otherwise, there is nothing going on, with a few wisps of cirrus crossing the sky.

Slow warming trend continues. Lows tonight mostly in the 50s.
Highs Saturday low 80s eastern UP, lots of mid 80s in northern lower MI.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Primary Forecast Concerns/Key Messages:

Quasi-omega midlevel pattern continues to keep dry conditions across the Central US. Midlevel ridging over the northern plains will continue this quiet weather pattern through the weekend.
Upstream troughing currently over the western Canadian Providences will eventually make its way to the Great Lakes Region and return more active weather to the CWA

The aformentioned midlevel ridge will have its axis centered over the CWA at the start of the forcast period. At the same time, upstream troughing transitions across the rockies and makes its way to southern Hudson Bay along with devleoping a moderate jet core on the right side of the trough (around 100 kts). Embedded midlevel shortwaves will ride across this area of strong atmospheric flow starting as soon as this Monday through the remainder of the long term period.

Primary Forecast Concerns:

A wetter weather pattern returns to the Great Lakes region next week. Chances of showers and storms continue at times for the majority of the long term period: Aformentioned shortwave disturbances paired with low level moisture advecting northward will provide enough energy to produce convection at times this week. Earliest chance of precip begins this Monday as diurnal heating processes increase afternoon instabilty. While most areas can expect to remain dry, areas of northern lower and eastern upper could see pop up showers and storms. Ensemble guidance is showing evidence of a boundary to drag across the CWA Monday night into Tuesday bringing the best potential of more widespread showers to region. Conditions look to remain dry on Wednesday, but dewpoints remain in the 60s for the remainder of the week mixed with height disturbances passing over the region. POPs will remain low, but the pattern of typical Northern Michigan afternoon showers can be expected this Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures expected to build next week well above normal: Midlevel shortwave ridging is expected to build next week allowing for temperatures to reach the upper 80s and low 90s for most locations across the CWA next week. Warmest days are expected to be Tuesday through Thursday. No locations appear to be at risk of breaking record highs, but dew points in the upper 60s will keep overnight lows above climatological normal and will not aid the relief of daytime highs.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

High pressure center will drift just east of Michigan thru Saturday night. Aside from some early morning patchy fog/IFR vsbys...VFR conditions are expected at all TAF sites for the next 24 hours. Light/calm winds tonight will become SW at around 10 kts on Saturday.

APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.