Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Harrisville, MI
May 19, 2024 7:54 PM EDT (23:54 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:49 AM Sunset 8:51 PM Moonrise 4:08 PM Moonset 3:02 AM |
LHZ362 Expires:202405200400;;496833 Fzus63 Kdtx 191945 Glflh
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 345 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
Synopsis - A weak cold front moves through this afternoon before stalling nearby as high pressure builds back in tonight. The front lifts back north as a warm front on Monday as a low pressure system moves into the great lakes. This system passes through northern lake huron Monday night into Tuesday. A stronger low and associated cold front follow on Wednesday.
lhz361-362-200400- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 345 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
Tonight - North winds 5 to 10 knots early in the evening becoming light and variable. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then veering to the south after midnight. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening - .then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening - .then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet after midnight.
Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots veering to the southwest late in the afternoon. A chance of showers. Waves 4 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 8 feet.
Thursday - West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and early morning. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet in the late evening and early morning.
Friday - West winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon - .then veering to the west 5 to 10 knots until early morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
open lake forecast for lake huron national weather service detroit/pontiac mi 345 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
for waters beyond five nautical miles off shore on lake huron
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
lhz361-362-200400- lake huron from 5nm east of mackinac bridge to presque isle lt beyond 5 nm off shore- lake huron from presque isle light to sturgeon point mi beyond 5nm off shore- 345 pm edt Sun may 19 2024
LHZ300
No data
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FXUS63 KAPX 192307 AFDAPX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 707 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Monday night.
- Frontal passage Tuesday night brings chance for a round of showers and possible strong thunderstorms.
- Cooler and occasionally unsettled Thursday and beyond.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis/pattern: A cold front continues to slowly sag into se lower MI. That front stalls along the southern lower MI border, and then comes northward Monday, likely reaching our southern zones in the afternoon. Wsw flow continues aloft, with the potential for an MCV to take a run at us by Monday afternoon.
Forecast: Quiet tonight. Southerly return flow begins off the surface overnight, and elevated instability will make some inroads into southern MI, mainly south MKG-PHN. Not this far north. High and mid clouds will be on a slow increase. Between the clouds and the drier low-level air, significant fog is not expected. Min temps near 50f to the mid 50s.
Monday, the lifting warm front will gradually climb into northern lower MI in the afternoon. We will have a reasonably healthy amount of mid and high clouds, so diurnal heating will be somewhat inhibited. A bit more in the way of sun is possible in southern areas midday/early afternoon. Max temps near 80f/ lower 80s will be common in northern lower MI, 70-75f in eastern upper MI. Surface dew points reach near 60f in the south in the afternoon. That pushes MlCape values to 1000-1500j/kg in the south, where shear is less (0-6km bulk 25-30kt). More shear but less instability to the north. Pops will be on the increase thru the day, whether by convection moving in from upstream, or via activity firing here if upstream convection erodes. Likely pops in the afternoon w and n, chances in the east. SPC continues with a Marginal severe threat in northern lower MI. That includes all svr types (including a 2% tor area), in deference to the surface warm front in the area. Sub-850mb flow is progged to back somewhat during the afternoon.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday. This will be enough forcing to push a stationary front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area for Tuesday, leading to rain showers and possible strong thunderstorms. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Monday night/ Tuesday Evening and Night: A stationary front located downstate will provide lift to support thunderstorms for Tuesday. The aformentioned front will get pushed northward into Northern Michigan as a digging trough and associated strengthening surface low track into the Midwest. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which will present the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms for the region. However, attention quickly turns to Tuesday evening/ night. First, I want to preface that this setup and forecast can change as finer details continue to be analyzed and conclusions are drawn. Now, Tuesday's setup has the potential to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Southerly winds will help to usher deep moisture into Northern Michigan, but potential activity downstate could cut-off the deep moisture fetch and essentially kill the chances of severe weather. Atmospheric dynamics continue to be in favor of severe weather, but the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage poses the question if anything will be able to initiate along the front. However, given the later timing and expected forcing, thoughts continue to be in support of a linear convective mode with all severe hazards possible. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have areas west of US 131 in a Slight Risk (2/5) and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
High pressure centered over the Western Great Lakes region will slide east tonight...replaced by low pressure and a cold front on Monday
Dry wx will persist tonight
before chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase late Monday morning thru Monday evening as moisture and instability increase along and ahead of this system. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours...but may occasionally drop to MVFR/IFR within heavier showers/storms. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become SE at around 10 kts on Monday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Gaylord MI 707 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and thunderstorms increasing Monday and Monday night.
- Frontal passage Tuesday night brings chance for a round of showers and possible strong thunderstorms.
- Cooler and occasionally unsettled Thursday and beyond.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
Synopsis/pattern: A cold front continues to slowly sag into se lower MI. That front stalls along the southern lower MI border, and then comes northward Monday, likely reaching our southern zones in the afternoon. Wsw flow continues aloft, with the potential for an MCV to take a run at us by Monday afternoon.
Forecast: Quiet tonight. Southerly return flow begins off the surface overnight, and elevated instability will make some inroads into southern MI, mainly south MKG-PHN. Not this far north. High and mid clouds will be on a slow increase. Between the clouds and the drier low-level air, significant fog is not expected. Min temps near 50f to the mid 50s.
Monday, the lifting warm front will gradually climb into northern lower MI in the afternoon. We will have a reasonably healthy amount of mid and high clouds, so diurnal heating will be somewhat inhibited. A bit more in the way of sun is possible in southern areas midday/early afternoon. Max temps near 80f/ lower 80s will be common in northern lower MI, 70-75f in eastern upper MI. Surface dew points reach near 60f in the south in the afternoon. That pushes MlCape values to 1000-1500j/kg in the south, where shear is less (0-6km bulk 25-30kt). More shear but less instability to the north. Pops will be on the increase thru the day, whether by convection moving in from upstream, or via activity firing here if upstream convection erodes. Likely pops in the afternoon w and n, chances in the east. SPC continues with a Marginal severe threat in northern lower MI. That includes all svr types (including a 2% tor area), in deference to the surface warm front in the area. Sub-850mb flow is progged to back somewhat during the afternoon.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
PATTERN SYNOPSIS/FORECAST:
A digging trough and its associated surface low is expected to track into the Midwest resulting in a slug of moisture being brought into the area for Monday/ Tuesday. This will be enough forcing to push a stationary front, located in southern Michigan, northward into the area for Tuesday, leading to rain showers and possible strong thunderstorms. As the aforementioned surface low tracks out of the region, cooler air will wrap around the low and be pushed into Northern Michigan. As such, temperatures will be warmer to start off next week with daytime highs in the 70s/ 80s, before more seasonable temperatures set in for mid-week next week (50s/ 60s).
PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS:
- Monday night/ Tuesday Evening and Night: A stationary front located downstate will provide lift to support thunderstorms for Tuesday. The aformentioned front will get pushed northward into Northern Michigan as a digging trough and associated strengthening surface low track into the Midwest. Guidance continues to hone in on a wave of energy that will track through the region Monday night into early Tuesday, which will present the next round of showers and possible thunderstorms for the region. However, attention quickly turns to Tuesday evening/ night. First, I want to preface that this setup and forecast can change as finer details continue to be analyzed and conclusions are drawn. Now, Tuesday's setup has the potential to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rain. Southerly winds will help to usher deep moisture into Northern Michigan, but potential activity downstate could cut-off the deep moisture fetch and essentially kill the chances of severe weather. Atmospheric dynamics continue to be in favor of severe weather, but the nocturnal nature of the frontal passage poses the question if anything will be able to initiate along the front. However, given the later timing and expected forcing, thoughts continue to be in support of a linear convective mode with all severe hazards possible. SPC (Storm Prediction Center) continues to have areas west of US 131 in a Slight Risk (2/5) and the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk (1/5) for severe storms.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 707 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024
High pressure centered over the Western Great Lakes region will slide east tonight...replaced by low pressure and a cold front on Monday
Dry wx will persist tonight
before chances of showers and thunderstorms begin to increase late Monday morning thru Monday evening as moisture and instability increase along and ahead of this system. Prevailing conditions will remain VFR for the next 24 hours...but may occasionally drop to MVFR/IFR within heavier showers/storms. Light/variable surface winds tonight will become SE at around 10 kts on Monday.
APX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 45003 - N HURON 37NM Northeast of Alpena, MI | 44 mi | 45 min | NNW 9.7G | 50°F | 29.99 | 44°F |
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Gaylord, MI,
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