Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Little Canada, MN

DISCUSSION
Issued at 303 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

As the 50-55kt low-level jet advances east/northeast across Nebraska and South Dakota, formerly severe storms have lessened in intensity for the time being. This line will move into southern and western Minnesota within a few hours, around 4 to 5AM. This timing places convection near the Twin Cities Metro right around the morning rush (7 to 8AM) and western Wisconsin by 9 to 10AM. In terms of what to expect from this round, nothing too impressive. Most unstable CAPE around 1000J/kg, 0-6km shear of 40-50kts, and elevated lapse rates around 8 C/km could create some stronger storms, but the main threat remains with round 2 this afternoon. Nonetheless, a few strong and potentially severe storms could result in those atmospheric conditions, and it doesn't take much to create chaos during an already busy time on the road.

After the morning convection dies off and moves out, there will be a few hours of tranquility at the surface, the calm before the storm, if you will. However, the atmosphere will be doing all but remaining calm in preparation for round 2. In some scenarios, morning convection can dampen the potential for redevelopment later in the day. In today's scenario, morning convection may actually aid in creating a better environment for round 2. How is that so? The morning storms will allow the strong inversion to remain in place.
Maintaining this inversion causes surface winds to respond more to the deepening pressure gradient. Additionally, a roaring low-level jet will have no issue re-energizing the atmosphere after morning storms roll through. Southerly winds will advect warm and moist air air into southern Minnesota beneath the elevated mixed layer. This difference in conditions (dry air in the EML and moist air at the surface) creates the instability needed for storms. The HRRR is forecasting MUCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg, dewpoints in the mid 60s, mean deep layer shear around 50kts, and breakable CIN (-30 J/kg or less) through around 6PM. With this in mind, most of the conditions needed for severe storms will be present, but it's the initial trigger mechanisms that are needed to actually get storms to initiate. This is where the conditional threat comes in. IF that trigger occurs (breaking any potential cap) ahead of the squall line anticipated to ride the cold front later in the evening, then strong tornadoes are possible with discrete supercells. This potential for strong tornadoes is what is driving the Moderate Risk (4/5). It is entirely possible the trigger never happens and the only convection we see in round 2 is with the passage of the cold front this evening. Tornadoes would still be possible with this scenario, but the storm mode would be linear (QLCS) versus discrete (supercells).
This typically translates to brief spin-ups and the the primary threat transitions to damaging wind along the line of storms.
The takeaway from today's severe storm potential is to remain vigilant of the potential for storms to go up quickly. This may mean checking your phone more often or keeping an eye to the sky, but don't let your guard down in this environment.

Storm chances aside, it will be windy today thanks to the LLJ.
Sustained southerly winds of 20-25MPH for most of southern Minnesota with gusts to 35-40MPH. Combine these winds with any storm and it won't be hard to get a severe level gust (50kts or greater).

After today, high pressure will build into the Upper Midwest. Dry conditions will result at least through Wednesday before a relatively weak disturbance brings the return of the chance for rain showers. Temperatures should remain mild in the 60s and 70s Wednesday through Friday before even warmer temperatures (upper 70s) are possible for the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1254 AM CDT Mon Apr 28 2025

Scattered showers are beginning to develop across southern MN, with a few TS also beginning to pop up southeast of MSP.
Coverage and intensity will continue to increase as the night wears on until the final round over South Dakota passes through by mid to late morning. Conditions will deteriorate and should become IFR in most locations late tonight and Monday morning. A break in TSRA for the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon, then additional TS should form in the mid to late afternoon and last into the early to mid evening.

KMSP...Some TS to the southeast should remain far enough for now to include any mention until later tonight when the main round develops/approaches. There may be TS before 11Z, but the TAF is highlighting the best window until radar trends can be better established during the next few hours.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ TUE.. MVFR/-SHRA likely in mrng. Wind NW 10-20 kts.
WED...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA late. Wind SSE 10-15 kts.
THU.. MVFR, chc -SHRA. Wind NW 10-20 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...None.
WI...None.