DISCUSSION
Issued at 208 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Early afternoon visible satellite loop illustrates that much of the widespread stratus from this morning has mixed out. That said, the skies are not exactly "clear" given the combination of diurnal Cu and hazy skies from wildfire smoke aloft. Fortunately, much of this smoke remains well above the surface, limiting air quality concerns.
The main weather hazard for the remainder of the day is the evolving heat scenario in western Minnesota. The combination of air temperatures in the 80s and dew points in the low to mid 70s has pushed heat indices into the upper 90s/low 100s from Stevens to Yellow Medicine counties, with multiple hours of warming ahead. We have collaborated with neighboring offices to issue a Heat Advisory for Stevens, Swift, Lac Qui Parle, Chippewa, and Yellow Medicine counties through 8 PM. Skies will run mostly clear tonight, but it will still be quite mild. Overnight lows are forecast to range between the mid 70s in western Minnesota to the upper 60s in western Wisconsin, setting the stage for a hot Saturday ahead.

Most locations across in central Minnesota, including most of the Twin Cities Metro, are forecast to climb into the low 90s Saturday afternoon. Locations in southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin may top out a few degrees cooler, in the upper 80s. Still, given the expected upper 60s/low 70s dew points, all locations should have no problem reaching the 90s for peak heat index values. Breezy southerly winds will gust up to 25 mph through the afternoon, which should help to provide some relief from the heat. While there was discussion about heat headlines with neighboring offices, the marginal nature of the temperatures combined with the surface winds presented enough uncertainty to hold off at this time.

Warm air aloft and a lack of forcing will work against precipitation chances for much of Saturday, however the eastward advance of the low-level jet will be the focus for convection Saturday night. We have included slight chance PoPs in west central Minnesota to capture this potential. The majority of south central Minnesota and western Wisconsin aim to stay dry until the second portion of Sunday, when more clusters of storms are forecast to develop in response to the eastward advance of a shortwave. Support from the low-level jet should aid in a greater coverage of showers and storms into late Sunday evening/early Monday, so the 60-70% PoPs from NBM seem reasonable. The threat for widespread severe weather is limited due to moderate instability (~1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE) and weak shear, though the strongest cells will be capable of damaging winds and small hail. This is reflected by SPC's Day 3 Marginal Risk across much of south central Minnesota. The threat for locally heavy rain will be of greater concern, given forecast PWATs exceeding 1.5" and the potential for slow-moving, perhaps training thunderstorms.

Convective activity will shift east during the first half of Monday, followed by dry weather through Tuesday. Temperatures are forecast to run a few degrees "cooler" Monday afternoon, though highs will still reach the mid 80s. Temperatures and heat indices will then warm back to more uncomfortable levels for Tuesday and Wednesday.
Another shortwave aims to track through the northern Great Plains in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe, which will bring the next chance for scattered to widespread thunderstorms across the Upper Midwest.
Significant ridging builds out west for the middle to end of next week, shifting the active jet and storm track north into southern Canada. This coincides with CPC's latest 8-14 day outlook, which advertises above average temperatures/below normal precipitation to through the first stretch of August.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024

MVFR cigs at MKT should eventually lift to VFR this evening. A few models are also hinting at the possibility of IFR cigs at STC overnight from pooling moisture. Have included a SCT008 from 06Z to 15Z to have mention of this possibility but keeping conditions VFR. Low-end VFR will persist elsewhere through tonight before skies lift and improve Saturday afternoon.
Southerly winds will slow slightly overnight but increase late Saturday morning with MN terminals having the strongest winds.
Sustained values will range from 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots.

KMSP...Southerly winds will increase late tomorrow morning with sustained values of 10-15 knots and gusts of 20-25 knots.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ SUN...VFR, MVFR/-TSRA likely late. Wind S 15G25 kts.
MON...Chc morning MVFR, chc -TSRA. Wind SW/W 10-15kts.
TUE...VFR. Wind VRB 5 kts.

MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MN...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for Chippewa-Lac Qui Parle-Stevens-Swift-Yellow Medicine.
WI...None.